@valentindaur
Senior Researcher @munsecconf.bsky.social studying public opinion on security politics. Formerly: Postdoc LMU Munich, PhD from Aarhus University. Public Opinion | Party Competition | Political Communication | Far Right Parties | Survey Experiments.
The #MSCreport 2026 is out now! 🐘
The world has entered a period of wrecking-ball politics. More than 80 years after construction began, the US-led post-1945 international order is now
⚠️ Under Destruction.
Read our brand-new Munich Security Report: securityconference.org/en/publicati...
Huge congrats, Kristian! :)
My wish for 2026 is that politicians and political analysts realize that public opinion is endogenous to elite behavior, that polling single issues tells us nothing about electorally successful strategies, that politics means shaping public opinion and that popularism is the death of progressivism.
Our new Munich Security Analysis by @tobiasbunde.bsky.social and @valentindaur.bsky.social shows that Germans want a more self-confident policy toward great powers. Yet, this is only possible in cooperation with European partners.
📖 Read the full text here: securityconference.org/en/publicati...
📣 Nominations are now open for the John McCain Dissertation Award!
Each year, we honor authors of exceptional doctoral dissertations on transatlantic relations. If you know a suitable candidate, submit your nomination by December 8.
🔗 securityconference.org/en/news/full...
BJPolS abstract discussing the effects of extensive media exposure on public perceptions and normalization. It references specific research surveys conducted on Sky News UK and Australia, analyzing changes in public attitudes and policy effects due to media strategies.
NEW -
Media Platforming and the Normalisation of Extreme Right Views - cup.org/4mmVIAL
"exposure to uncritical interviews increases agreement with extreme statements and perceptions of broader support in the population"
- @dianebolet.bsky.social & @florianfoos.bsky.social
#OpenAccess
BJPolS abstract discussing the dynamics of mainstream and radical political rhetoric regarding anti-immigrant policies, highlighting differences in societal responses and enforcement norms based on the source of the rhetoric.
NEW -
How Mainstream Politicians Erode Norms - cup.org/4lfeHvD
"we find that statements by mainstream politicians lead to more norm erosion than similar statements by radical-right politicians"
- @valentimvicente.bsky.social, Elias Dinas & @dziblatt.bsky.social
#OpenAccess
🚨 Publication alert @fpajrnl.bsky.social
In this article, I examine how democracy affects states' arms control preferences. I find that democracy facilitates support for conventional, but not nuclear arms control. For more info, see abstract below or full article: academic.oup.com/fpa/article/...
Check out this new article by my friend and co-author @tobiasrisse.bsky.social! Amazing work!
🚨 We're hiring! Join us at @LMU_Muenchen for the DFG-funded project "Democratic Persuasion: How to Make the Case for Democracy."
Interested in making scholarly & societal impact?
We’re looking for:
🔹 1 Postdoc (100%)
🔹 1 PhD researcher (70%)
Starting: Oct 2025 | Apply by: July 8
More info ⬇️ (1/7)
Ich habe mit @tabouchadi.bsky.social für @volksverpetzer.de über den Forschungsstand zum Ausgrenzen rechtsextremer Parteien, ihrer Normalisierung in Politik und Medien und darüber gesprochen, was sich ändern muss, um die weitere Unterwanderung unserer Demokratie zu verhindern.
I AM HIRING 2 postdocs (5 years) in my @erc.europa.eu project "The Politics of the Latent Educational Cleavage" at @goetheuni.bsky.social @infer-frankfurt.bsky.social!
German call: www.fb03.uni-frankfurt.de/170856927.pdf
English call: www.goethe-university-frankfurt.de/170858269.pdf
Please share
That's great news! Huge congrats, Alex!
Does Mainstream Populism Work❓
I answer this question in a new paper officially out at @psrm.bsky.social❗
Check out the paper here: doi.org/10.1017/psrm...
Key take-aways in the thread below 🧵⬇️:
I’m over the moon that my 1st book, based on my PhD, will be published w/ Oxford University Press.
“Grassroots Women in the Populist Radical Right” investigates women’s involvement in PRR parties as party members.
I already have a full draft, so I hope I can share this labour of love w/ you soon 💜
This is amazing, what an achievement! Huge congrats, Sofia!! :)
Abstract: How does anti-immigrant rhetoric by mainstream politicians affect norms of tolerance? How does this compare to similar statements made by radical-right politicians? Drawing on experimental evidence, we find that statements by mainstream politicians lead to more norm erosion than similar statements by radical-right politicians. Subsample analyses suggests that this is because statements by mainstream-right politicians erode norm perceptions of right-wing individuals, while those by radical-right politicians induce backlash among left-wing individuals, who hold closer to the norm in place. The latter effect (backlash by the left) disappears when similar statements are made by mainstream right politicians. We argue that this difference occurs because mainstream politicians represent the views of a larger part of the population or have a higher status. Our results highlight the pivotal role of mainstream politicians in enforcing or eroding democratic norms, and that similar political statements can have different effects depending on their sender.
Very happy that our paper (w/ @dziblatt.bsky.social & E Dinas) has been accepted @bjpols.bsky.social .
We've seen the center right increasingly adopt far-right rhetoric.
Our experiment in 🇩🇪 finds that this erodes anti-prejudice norms *more* than when the far-right employs similar rhetoric.
1/3
Im Interview mit @tobiwan.bsky.social vom Tagesspiegel durfte ich darüber sprechen wie das Thema Migration den Wahlkampf geprägt hat und wie vor allem das Verhalten der anderen Parteien dazu beigetragen hat, die AfD zu stärken.
www.tagesspiegel.de/politik/am-e...
Job ad for a postdoctoral position at LMU Munich.
‼️PostDoc (100% 2.5 years) @lmumuenchen.bsky.social
@dfg.de project "How Mainstream Parties Deal with Conflict: Rules, Practices, Media Exposure" (PIs: Nicole Bolleyer & I)
⏰Start: 01.10.2025
⏳Deadline: 06.04.2025
🎤Interviews: 14./15.05.2025
job-portal.lmu.de/jobposting/1...
#Academicsky #Polisky
My @polstudies.bsky.social article on stigma & grassroots activism in populist radical right (PRR) parties has now page numbers!
journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....
Drawing on the 1st ever comparative survey of PRR party members, I ask how stigma affects their participation in party activities.
🚨 Happy to see one of my PhD papers out at JEPOP
📚 I examine whether MPs' attention to local issues in parliamentary activities affects their re-election chances in party-centred contexts
www.tandfonline.com/eprint/G2HVG...
Ungated version here: eavigano.github.io/papers/jepop...
Für den @verfassungsblog.de habe ich aufgeschrieben was diese Woche im Bundestag bedeutet. Der Höhepunkt der programmatischen Anpassung an die AfD. Ein Dammbruch der zu ihrer Normalisierung und Legitimation führt. Eine dunkle Stunde für die deutsche Demokratie.
verfassungsblog.de/aus-dem-abse...
On this note, here is a thread with recent research on what normalization is and how it happens.
It includes links to references, from my work and that of others.
I tried to tag the authors whenever they are on here, in case you are interested in following their work.
1/8
…to avoid further (and arguably unintended) strengthening of AfD—and, in turn, the (again unintended) risk of harming democracy. (6/6)
Given these far-reaching public opinion/normalization effects—and the fact that CDU is legitimizing AfD at a time when the party is more extreme than ever—in my view, CDU would be well-advised to make yesterday’s collaboration a singular instance… (5/6)
In my recently published article, I show that (a) voters follow mainstream party legitimization, (b) returning to delegitimization has little effect, (c) legitimization is no less effective even when a third party continues to delegitimize, and (d) legitimization resonates beyond co-partisans. (4/6)
Instead, most mainstream right parties have, at some point, moved toward legitimizing them (i.e., portraying them as democratic through collaboration). (3/6)
CDU’s shift follows a pattern seen in many other countries. In fact, few electorally successful far-right parties have been delegitimized (i.e., portrayed as undemocratic, for instance, via a cordon sanitaire) by the mainstream right for an extended period. (2/6)
How will voters react to CDU shifting away from its strict "no collaboration"-stance toward AfD? During my PhD, I sought to answer this question. Sooner than I had hoped, it is no longer mostly hypothetical. A thread… (1/6)
doi.org/10.1017/S000...
