Ethan Shaw

Map snapshot depicting the predicted relative anomalousness of surface temperatures from the ECMWF ensemble over the Western U.S. in about a week from now. A a huge region of bright orange and red colors (depicting extremely high warm temperature anomalies) is centered right in the middle of the map, and covers essentially the entire region.

Lots of buzz online about an upcoming major March heatwave for the American SW & California. And in this case, it does indeed appear increasingly likely than an extremely anomalous and even record-breaking heatwave may envelop much of the SW about a week from now.

Time series plot depicting predicted Nino 3.4 region ocean temperature anomalies from the latest (Mar 2026) ECMWF ensemble. It depicts an extremely rapid rise in such temperatures, from modest negative anomalies to strong positive anomalies, by mid-summer 2026--indicative of a transition from weak-moderate La Nina conditions to moderate-strong El Nino conditions over just a few months.

Whew.

All signs are increasingly pointing to a significant, if not strong to very strong, El Niño event. I'll have more to say in coming weeks & months, but for now I'll just say that this is increasingly likely to become a major regional-to-global climate driver in 2026-2027.

December 2025 through February 2026 was the 2nd warmest winter on record for the Contiguous U.S. according to Prism climate data. The widespread record to near record warmth in the west easily outweighed the cool temps in the east. 🔥🔥🔥

March starts off with building record warmth after an unusually warm climatological winter Active weather expected across the central US this week

Dr. Jon Martin at Wisconsin has been working for years tracking the size of the hemispheric cold pool each winter, and found that this winter's was the smallest on record for the third time in the last 12 years. More on Jon's work - as well as a wet week for central US: tinyurl.com/y2kkw7vz

Map of locations currently experiencing record or near-record temperatures (from coolwx.com). There are many such locations, indicated in red and orange colors, across the Southwest and Southern Rockies.

After a relatively brief colder & snowier interlude, we've re-entered a period that will be characterized by sustained anomalous warmth in U.S. West. Today, daily record high temperatures are again occurring across portions of Southern Rockies and interior SW. #CAwx #COwx

Hangin out with two of my favorite roadside wolves 🐺

You can't... repeal... a scientific finding. At that point it's just called lying about it.

If you take a close look at this you can see dark patches corresponding to parts of the High Plains with very limited drainage network development and many closed depressions. Hydrologic disconnection between uplands and the regional drainage network.

After a long, dry, and very warm January, a cooler & wetter pattern will return to the U.S. West, with partial relief amid record-low mountain snowpack - Weather West Record warm winter-to-date continues across most of the American West; already abysmal mountain snowpack dips to record low levels in many areas (except...higher elevations in southern Sierra!) Well, it sure has been a winter to remember thus far across the Western U.S. Astonishing, record-breaking warmth has pervaded nearly entire region (with few exceptions, though one

New Weather West update is out now! Some relief, at last, from recent record warmth and astonishing lack of Mountain West snow in the coming days as cooler/wetter pattern returns. But just how much relief should we expect? Read more:

WATER DESK: Western U.S. snowpack is worth trillions of dollars Putting a price tag on the water stored in the region’s high-elevation frozen reservoir By Mitch Tobin, The Water Desk The American West’s snowpack is valuable for many reasons. Snowmelt supplies much...

The American West’s snowpack is valuable for many reasons, but can its worth be calculated in dollars and cents? And how is climate change affecting that value? #cawater mavensnotebook.com/2026/02/05/w...

More grim news about the West's snow drought:

🛰️ Lowest Feb. 1 snow cover in the satellite record (since 2001)

📉 Record-low Feb. 1 statewide snowpack in Oregon, Colorado, and Utah

⚠️ “A Dry, Warm January Leaves the West With the Worst Snowpack in Decades”

www.drought.gov/drought-stat...

Map showing 500mb GPH pattern over North America, with a pronounced and persistent ridge across the western CONUS and a persistent trough over the eastern U.S. Data shown are from ECMWF ensemble, and valid over the next 5 days.

The highly persistent "Warm West/Cool East" pattern will continue across continental U.S., as part of the broader "Warm Arctic/Cold Continents" pattern in Northern Hemisphere, for at least another 7-10 days. Extreme Western U.S. warmth & Eastern U.S. cold will continue. [Thread]

i post this every september

In this January 21 map of snow water equivalent, basins in red are below 50% of the 1991–2020 median; orange indicates 50–69% of normal.

www.nrcs.usda.gov/programs-ini...

Snow drought update: record warmth, thin snowpack Plus, SnowSlang: O is for "orographic lift"

A serious snow drought is gripping much of the American West as record-breaking warmth has dominated the winter so far.

New post at snow.news has the latest on the West’s thin snowpack:

www.snow.news/p/snow-droug...

PNW snowpack approaches record lows As we approach the halfway point of mountain snow season, snowpack remains in poor condition across much of the PNW. The state of the snowpack as measured by SNOTEL stations is often displayed as a…

Snowpack in Washington and Oregon is so bad that a normal February and March would result in a recovery to just the ~10th percentile of historical years. More in the CZ blog...

theconvergencezone.com/2026/01/19/p...

“Warm West/Cool East” dipole to develop over North America in late January; mostly dry/warm conditions lead to record-low Western U.S. snowpack - Weather West Yes, it's still record warm out West and the snowpack really is that bad (outside of central/southern Sierra) I'll keep this part pretty short: it has been an absurdly warm winter thus far across nearly the entire American West, including most of California. One of the only exceptions has been CA's Central Valley, where episodes

New Weather West post out now: “Warm West/Cool East” dipole to develop over North America in late January; mostly dry/warm conditions lead to record-low Western U.S. snowpack. I'll be discussing the content therein during Wednesday's livestream. #CAwx

Who is coming where and when to the local watering hole? Glimpses into the Secret Life of Wildlife in the Gobi

An amazing site that shows a huge variety of animals at watering holes in the Great Gobi B Strictly Protected Area. It showcases the pure beauty of the Gobi environment and animals. A highlight is two wolves taking down an old khulan (wild ass) stallion.
#tengri #mongolsky
arcg.is/0SXXyK0

Today’s view from Lamar Valley in Yellowstone National Park.

How often is January the coldest month of the year (Jul to Jun)?

How often is January the snowiest month of the winter season (Jul to Jun)?

Colorado snowpack near record lows raises concerns for water and wildfire risk Colorado snowpack is significantly below normal for mid-January, raising concerns about water supply, drought and wildfire risk later this year.

It is dry and warm across most of the Colorado River basin so far this winter, which is not great www.kktv.com/2026/01/17/c...

Forced closure of premier US weather-modeling institute could endanger millions of Americans From high-wind forecasts and wildfire behavior to floods, aviation hazards, air quality and space weather, science developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research informs decisions that aim ...

NCAR models help forecast tornadoes, hurricanes, floods, extreme heat, drought and the potential for wildfires. "NCAR science and models have been part of bringing that warning to the people who need to hear it," @weatherwest.bsky.social told @livescience.com
www.livescience.com/planet-earth...

A bur oak in a woodland pasture. It was struck by lightning more than 50 years ago, but built a new crown and is growing well.

One of the reasons that trees are the longest-lived organisms is their remarkable ability to rebuild after stress or injury. This bur oak, growing in a woodland pasture, was struck by lightning more than 50 years ago. It has built a new crown and is growing with vigor.

Two American bison walking up a slope in a Bluegrass pasture, with a wooland pasture in spring plumage behind them. Copyright Tom Kimmerer

I'm not pining for Spring. Yet. I do want to hang out with my bison friends soon. American bison, Bos bison bison, were abundant in the Bluegrass in ancient times. They, helped by drought, created the woodland pasture habitat that makes the Bluegrass landscape distinct.

Current NRCS map depicting present snow water equivalent (SWE) across the western U.S. The vast majority of basins are below average, many well below average, except for the central/southern Sierra and northern Rockies.

The extremely anomalous & in most cases record-breaking Nov-Dec warmth led to record-low snowpack in many areas. Heavy precipitation bolstered high elevation snowpack in some areas in late Dec despite warmth, but most basins remain far below average snow water equivalent.

Map from NOAA Climate at a Glance depicting the relative rank of Nov-Dec 2025 temperatures on a county-by-county basis. Most Western U.S. counties experienced their warmest Nov-Dec on record, as depicted by all locations dark red in color on the map.

Well, it's now official (per NOAA): Dec (and Nov-Dec) 2025 were the warmest such periods on record for Western U.S. (and also for most individual Western states). It has been an extraordinarily sustained period of winter warmth, and this eerily balmy winter continues into Jan.

Averaged across Washington state, December finished 6.4 degrees above normal (mean), a record. It was also the second-warmest year on record in the state.
climate.uw.edu/2026/01/12/d...
www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/nationa...

Map (from NRCS) showing current snow water equivalent (SWE) anomalies at numerous points throughout the Western United States. Nearly all points are well below average--with many under 50% of usual mid-Jan values--except in the Central/Southern Sierra and across portions of the Northern Rockies (where values are near average, or even locally above).

Snowpack across much of West was at record or near-record low levels for most of Dec. Despite recent local recovery--esp. in central/southern Sierra in California--it remains extremely low most everywhere else. Record low snowpack may return by later in Jan w/this pattern.

Map showing 5-day average temperature anomalies for North America for a period centered on about ~7 days from now, as depicted by the ECMWF ensemble. A broad region of warmer than average temperatures are indicated throughout the western U.S. and Canada.

Following a very wet (but also record-warm) December, anomalously warm but (this time) quite dry weather will intensify over the coming days across most of the American West. A strong ridge will shift toward PacNW and strengthen/persist for at least next ~10 days. [Thread] #CAwx