Ewing is still young, but we see a ton of good in his game! His strong line drive game makes him a gap power maven, but he must work to avoid ground balls, which hurt him in AA last season. Still some distance away from a debut, but his solid Spring will give him a boost!
Max Clark prospect profile card showing the Detroit Tigers outfielder’s 2025 performance and projection. Clark, age 20, played at High-A and Double-A with a .272 AVG, .403 OBP, .431 SLG, and .835 OPS over 533 plate appearances. Relative skill metrics (measured in standard deviations above league average) highlight strong Development Speed (1.59) and Discipline (1.53), with solid Avoid K (0.97) and Contact (0.62). Power is more modest with Gap Power (0.06), HR Power (0.42), and Lift (0.12). The model gives Clark an 81% chance to become an MLB contributor, 77% chance to be a regular, and 37% chance to reach star-level production. Career outcome curve shows highest probability around 1–2 WAR prime seasons with declining odds beyond 3 WAR. Archetype label: “Window Shopper.” Comparable seasons include Steven Duggar (2016), Troy Montgomery (2017), and Samuel Zavala (2025).
Teasing our soon-to-debut website with our take on Max Clark! We like his style of play, but are a bit hesitant to be full believers with the bat, as so much of his value still comes from walks. If he finds a bit more gap/HR pop, he'll rise fast, especially with his top glove!
We are still sticking with Ford! Despite a few good but not fantastic minor league seasons and some catching glove ambiguity, Ford presents a high-upside combo of power and discipline. As you can see from a teaser of our new site + rankings, we back Ford to seize the Nats C job!
Our "prospect to watch" breakdown series concludes with the NL West! Featuring big names Charlie Condon and Ethan Salas, see what about them and others makes them our number one guys to lock in on for 2026!
Post-Season 2024, we debuted Hot Take Tuesday with the aggressive claim that McGonigle was a top 5 hitting prospect. One season later, he's a consensus top 5 guy, and he turned that XBH into HR! True K zone understanding + a good hit tool both scale up well with maturity!
Infographic card for Cleveland Guardians first baseman Kyle Manzardo. Top left shows a photo of Manzardo in his Guardians uniform holding a bat. Below his name are three career outcome probabilities: Contributor 70%, Regular 69%, Star 36%, with a green Confidence Meter bar. Top right shows a Relative Statistics bar chart with six metrics compared to league baseline (1.0 dashed line): rAge 1.18, rBB 1.39, rK 1.29, rHR 1.92 (tallest bar, dark green), rXBH 1.45, and r1B 0.78 (below baseline, gray). Bottom is a Career Outcome Probabilities line chart. The x-axis shows Future Average WAR Per Season (0–5), the y-axis shows Probability of Achieving (0–100%). The curve starts near 70% at 0 WAR, holds relatively flat through 1 WAR, then drops steadily, reaching roughly 25% at 3 WAR and near 0% at 5 WAR. Closest historical comp listed: Lucas Duda, 2010 season.
Ye ole Oyster Model loved Manzardo! He's an example of two things: mature HR power often takes some time to surface in MLB, and 1B have to be top-notch hitters to generate massive value. Note Manzardo's high floor (with our old scale) and relatively lower ceiling.
All You Need to Know in Three Sentences Arroyo has become a contact-only hitter after a missed 2024 due to injury, which appears to have sapped his power. He gets good reviews fielding at shortstop, so that’s not necessarily a death sentence, but it is worrying that his discipline is also poor. He did have an above-average year in Double-A as a 21-year-old, so he’s clearly still got something, but we do think our model over-aggressive since it can’t fully account for the specifics of his injury situation. Edward Florentino (PIT) A Human’s Take on the Model Output This spot is perfect for him. He’s got a wide range of predictions from top 10s from some analysts to outside of the FanGraphs top 100. He’s exceptional at what he does, but still so young, and if he does what he did last year in High-A and Double-A, he will rocket up boards.
We're hard at work on our preseason top 100! What's one take that you think our model has bang on? And who will we regret missing the boat on?
There he goes again! With maturity comes strength and power, and he has hit over a quarter of last year's 7 HR total in Spring Training. Even if homers don't come as a teen, they might come later. We'll see if he can maintain his momentum into the regular season!
See a challenge in the game and want to see what the Oyster method thinks? Check out our new app! Select the situation, click on the location, and see how the break-even rate and confidence score align!
We're excited to wade into the ABS Challenge discussion with our strategy guide to maximizing challenge usage! We've taken count, situation, inning, pitch location (and more), and broken down ideal challenge behavior with clear, distilled points:
Big thanks to Lindsay! We enjoyed talking Braves prospects, including the underrated John Gil!
Pumped for Tuesday, when our bit on the Braves Today podcast with @crosbybaseball.bsky.social goes live! Had tons of fun talking about hot prospect John Gil, Nacho Alvarez's bounceback odds, and why we missed on Drake Baldwin!
Rodriguez showed off his elite patience (got to 2-0) before his + bat speed punished a mistake. Jenkins (the fellow Twin knocking on the door) is more well-rounded, but if Rodriguez can elevate the ball at or near Jenkins' level, Rodriguez's massive EVs will translate to HR!
We don't doubt that more massive HR will be in Jones' future, but we are wary of his sky-high K rates. Without Judge-esque patience, he'll need to find an OBP tool to complement his elite power, and at his age, it's challenging. If he blooms late, he's got a superstar ceiling!
We're working on this bug. Players who are injured evade our modeling sometimes due to a lack of PA!
Michael Arroyo's big bat is his calling card, and he's the first prospect to make a splash in Spring Training! His positional future is more in doubt, but as a well-rounded hitter and exceptional lifter, expect balls to keep leaving the yard in 2026!
He's still only 21 and wasn't outrageously outstanding enough for me to see him being rushed into the show. I'd say early-mid-2027 is a more likely debut date.
The NL Central's glut of hitting prospects makes their organizations among those to keep an eye on in 2026, and today's piece focuses on the names we'll be closely following. Big slugging bats, elite catchers, and young phenoms galore!
Two main takeaways:
1. Don't get too hyped over DSL statlines. Tons of guys do well there and don't go all the way. If you do poorly, though, it's an uphill battle.
2. "Old school" scouting and internal statcast-style data are 100% the best way to project these DSL talents.
Player profile graphic for Josuar Gonzalez (SFG) from Oyster Analytics. Ranked #1414 overall and #52 SFG prospect. Left panel shows relative hitting metrics vs. league average: Development Speed 0.70, Discipline 0.41, Avoid Strikeouts 0.74, Contact 1.00, Gap Power 1.06, Home Run Power 0.64, and negative Lift (-0.67). Comparison listed: Jose Ramos (2022). Right panel shows career outcome probabilities (Contributor, Regular, Star), all currently displayed at 0%, with an empty probability chart and a low confidence meter at the bottom.
Josuar Gonzalez is the prime example of how our model is difficult to sway based on purely DSL stats. We personally think that his high ceiling tools make him a notable prospect, but his performance in the DSL was not in the "beyond elite" tier. He's a guy we will be watching in '26!
Prospect card for John Gil, Atlanta Braves. Ranked #43 overall and #1 ATL prospect. Career outcome probabilities: Contributor 74%, Regular 73%, Star 24%. Relative stats as standard deviations from league average: Dev Speed +1.23, Discipline +0.17, Avoid K +1.22, Contact +0.38, Gap Power +0.30, HR Power -0.14, Lift -0.80. Career outcome probability chart shows WAR per season distribution with horizontal bar graphs. Player comp: Adrian Pinto, 2022. Confidence meter is approximately 75% filled.
This #hottaketuesday, we're in on John Gil; he's in the top 50 for us! Gil is a well-rounded RHH SS who upped both his contact % and ISO in A-ball at age 19. He struggled in his AA cameo, but he's previously overcome level-up struggles. More pop would take him to the next level!
Prospect card for Ryan Clifford, New York Mets. Ranked #6 overall and #1 NYM prospect. Career outcome probabilities: Contributor 98%, Regular 89%, Star 75%. Relative stats as standard deviations from league average: Dev Speed +1.57, Discipline +1.52, Avoid K -0.36, Contact -0.37, Gap Power -0.11, HR Power +1.76, Lift +0.43. Career outcome probability chart shows WAR per season distribution with horizontal bar graphs. Player comp: Ryan Clifford, 2024. Confidence meter is approximately 80% filled.
Clifford projects as an elite-level bat! He's got big power and excellent discipline, even in the upper minors. His average contact skills are rare for his demonstrated power and age, and he's one of the top-upside bats out there. We think he's a sleeper to make a big MLB debut!
Absolutely. And he's still so young that he has a few years to reasonably get there.
Prospect card for Jhostynxon Garcia, Boston Red Sox. Ranked #35 overall and #1 BOS prospect. Career outcome probabilities: Contributor 92%, Regular 75%, Star 18%. Relative stats shown as standard deviations from league average: Dev Speed +1.28, Discipline -0.41, Avoid K -0.53, Contact +0.51, Gap Power -0.31, HR Power +0.93, Lift +0.35. Career outcome probability chart shows WAR per season distribution with horizontal bar graphs. Player comp: Jesus Montero, 2011. Confidence meter is approximately 75% filled.
New Pirates OF Jhostynxon "the Password" Garcia has a rare contact & HR combo with solid fielding skills. The heat will be on his swing and miss, and chase; a 35.7% chase rate in AAA is a bit spooky. Still, the tools are there, and he's a young 23YO with time!
Ah-Ah-Ah! Today, we (and Count von Count) are here to talk about why count advantages and disadvantages aren't quite what they seem! While good counts are better than bad, accounting for factors like P&H quality and times through order shrinks the gap!
Who else would you pick for your Winter Olympics prospect team?
Justin Crawford, bobsled winner!
Bobsled requires power and speed! Pittsburgh’s Tony Blanco Jr and Edward Florentino, and the O’s Samuel Basallo would be fantastic at getting the sled going, and Philly’s solidly built speedster Justin Crawford would be a fantastic driver; he's used to going fast!
Jenkins, the Biathlete.
The biathlon demands elite physical attributes and conditioning, and the ability to slow things down and hit the mark with a rifle. While there are tons of strong and fast prospects out there, the Twins’ Walker Jenkins stands out because of his background as an avid hunter!
Jesus Made, in figure skating action.
Figure skating is a blend of explosive athleticism, smoothness, and flair, three traits that define Jesús Made’s game. Made's fast-twitch power gives him pop beyond his size, perfect for completing high-flying quad jumps!
Ryan Lasko in the big air.
Snowboarding big air requires a mildly unhinged and fearless personality, willing to risk it all to throw down the gnarliest tricks. Ryan Lasko (ATH) is willing to lay it all on the line to make twisting highlight reel plays in the outfield. He isn't afraid of hard contact!
