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Ed Sherman

@ed-sherman

Deputy Director Advanced Analytics - aka: DfT AI programme (On loan from: ONS Data Science Campus)

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24.08.2024
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Latest posts by Ed Sherman @ed-sherman

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So, what did Agatha Christie really think of Jews? Agatha Christie remains the bestselling novelist of all times. But her early stories suggest an unhealthy dose of antisemitism.

I found out the other day, courtesy of @mattyglesias.bsky.social, that after WW2 Christie had her literary agent remove some of the anti-semitism from the older books:
forward.com/culture/4580...

10.03.2026 21:35 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Open call for papers, The Rate of Return to R&D Investments. Conference to be held in Washington, DC on October 2, 2026. Submit papers by 11:59pm EDT on June 17, 2026. More information: www.nber.org/calls-papers...

05.03.2026 13:07 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 3 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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The lost history of a mosaic in Victoria A small side street near Victoria contains a mosaic that people will tell you is an old advert for the Victor Talking Machine Company. They are wrong.

A small side street near Victoria contains a mosaic that people will tell you is an old advert for the Victor Talking Machine Company. They are wrong.

www.ianvisits.co.uk/articles/the...

05.03.2026 08:10 πŸ‘ 24 πŸ” 5 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0
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Opening Hours & Tickets

It’s nice round there! If you get the chance I cannot recommend enough going to the Louisiana, great art and the grounds are stunning. louisiana.dk/en/plan-your...

27.02.2026 21:04 πŸ‘ 4 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0
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Europe v America: Who’s Really Winning? A wonkish but important discussion

open.substack.com/pub/paulkrug...

Useful post with useful model. Being great at something that's collapsing in price doesn't necessarily advantage you

27.02.2026 18:59 πŸ‘ 33 πŸ” 10 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 1

The answer there, iirc, is about funding security for the sector wrt to management of department budgets

26.02.2026 10:15 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Super interesting

25.02.2026 21:06 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
Locations of new homes built in Switzerland in 2018

Locations of new homes built in Switzerland in 2018

Country-wide effects of new housing supply: Evidence from
moving chains, by Lukas Hauck and Frederic Kluser

Country-wide effects of new housing supply: Evidence from moving chains, by Lukas Hauck and Frederic Kluser

Another new paper on housebuilding and vacancy chains, this time with data on every Swiss resident & housing unit! An interesting context given Switzerland's high immigration, very large rented sector and strong tenancy rent controls... frederickluser.github.io/files/Moving...

20.02.2026 15:53 πŸ‘ 169 πŸ” 50 πŸ’¬ 5 πŸ“Œ 20
A drawing about vector databases, describing first vectors in AI, then how we map them in a high dimensional coordinate system to derive semantic similarities, and then how we can perform fast searches using ANN algorithms, and HNSW to traverse a heirachal graph structure to find the nearest neighbor

A drawing about vector databases, describing first vectors in AI, then how we map them in a high dimensional coordinate system to derive semantic similarities, and then how we can perform fast searches using ANN algorithms, and HNSW to traverse a heirachal graph structure to find the nearest neighbor

πŸ’₯ I made a new drawing in my AI series, this time about Vector Databases, ANN, and HNSW. I hope it's useful!

It might be good to look at the Transformers one in the series before this one, for additional background.

17.02.2026 14:03 πŸ‘ 89 πŸ” 7 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 1
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An economic model of "Artificial Jagged Intelligence"β€”where AI systems perform well on some tasks but fail on similar onesβ€”showing how users' inability to predict local reliability creates adoption challenges that persist even as models improve, from @joshgans.bsky.social www.nber.org/papers/w34712

25.01.2026 18:03 πŸ‘ 6 πŸ” 3 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

3) Accurate classification: CAT performs comparably to human analysts when classifying themes to individual free-text responses, enabling robust estimates of theme prevalence rates to be produced.

07.01.2026 11:41 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

2) Accurate theme extraction: CAT identified between 75% (blind) and 90% (non-blind) of the themes identified by human analysts. With our human-in-the-loop review process, this increases to 100%, while allowing human experts to apply their policy judgement to ensure no key themes are missed.

07.01.2026 11:41 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

*Key headlines*
1) Potential benefits: If scaled across all DfT consultations, CAT could save ~Β£1.5-4m/yr, while significantly reducing resource pressure, with time saved in the policy development cycle helping us meet the CO recommendation to publish consultation responses within 12 weeks

07.01.2026 11:41 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

CAT was developed and evaluated by the DfT AI team, in collaboration with a team at the Alan Turing Institute, using LLMs with human oversight to analyse free-text responses from public consultations. This is the first evaluation we've published for one of our AI tools in DfT, hopefully more to come

07.01.2026 11:41 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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AI Consultation Analysis Tool evaluation Findings from a technical evaluation of the Consultation Analysis Tool, an AI-driven system that analyses consultation responses with robust human insight.

I wanted to start the new year by celebrating the work of my team in DfT. We just published the evaluation of our Consultation Analysis Tool (CAT): www.gov.uk/government/p...

CAT is one of our main internal AI projects at DfT, and has shown the strongest internal demand and clearest benefits.

07.01.2026 11:41 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

This is a nice trip down memory lane

05.01.2026 20:12 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
In the early 1990s, before the vaccines were introduced, the virus caused around 4 million cases of disease, 12,000 hospitalisations and 100 deaths each year in the United States. Children were most affected, making up >90% of cases, >60% of hospitalisations and around 40% of deaths.

I’ve used past tense, because here’s what happened after that.

In the early 1990s, before the vaccines were introduced, the virus caused around 4 million cases of disease, 12,000 hospitalisations and 100 deaths each year in the United States. Children were most affected, making up >90% of cases, >60% of hospitalisations and around 40% of deaths. I’ve used past tense, because here’s what happened after that.

My blogpost on the success of universal chickenpox vaccination in the US, and why the UK should have made the move sooner:
www.scientificdiscovery.dev/p/13-the-suc...

Chickenpox vaccines are really effective!

02.01.2026 12:16 πŸ‘ 58 πŸ” 17 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 3
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Ignore the sceptics: with this new vaccine, chickenpox could become a thing of the past | Wes Streeting Thousands develop serious complications from the varicella virus. Today the NHS rolls out a new jab, alongside measles, mumps and rubella, says health secretary Wes Streeting

Woohoo! Chickenpox vaccines are on the menu in the UK - finally!!
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

02.01.2026 12:06 πŸ‘ 258 πŸ” 56 πŸ’¬ 8 πŸ“Œ 14

If you don’t mind an old season style, then places like brandalley could be a good option for saving Β£ once you’ve picked a brand

30.12.2025 21:51 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Useful patterns for building HTML tools I’ve started using the term HTML tools to refer to HTML applications that I’ve been building which combine HTML, JavaScript, and CSS in a single file and use them to …

I put together a detailed collection of useful patterns I've collected after vibe-coding 150 different single-file HTML tools over the past couple of years simonwillison.net/2025/Dec/10/...

10.12.2025 21:08 πŸ‘ 224 πŸ” 36 πŸ’¬ 17 πŸ“Œ 4
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We tested one of the most common prompting techniques: giving the AI a persona to make it more accurate

We found that telling the AI "you are a great physicist" doesn't make it significantly more accurate at answering physics questions, nor does "you are a lawyer" make it worse.

08.12.2025 18:32 πŸ‘ 101 πŸ” 15 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 10

Another example of the bitter lesson?

03.10.2025 13:27 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

I'm afraid we've been at it again

17.09.2025 21:05 πŸ‘ 79 πŸ” 10 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 0
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β€˜Super sewer’ chief bows out to the sweet smell of success London’s Β£5bn Thames Tideway project has been completed without drama using a pioneering financial model

β€˜Super sewer’ chief bows out to the sweet smell of success on.ft.com/4gdIXWU

10.09.2025 06:27 πŸ‘ 25 πŸ” 3 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 4

😭

05.09.2025 12:52 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Tempting fate? No, the second scoop is an earl grey sorbet!

21.08.2025 12:43 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

See also: the phenomena of second scoop regret with gelato h/t @scientificdiscovery.dev

15.08.2025 13:47 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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New method detects inflation turning points using disaggregated price data, revealing early signals in Argentina's 2024 disinflation and US tariffs in 2025, from Alberto Cavallo and Gaston Garcia Zavaleta https://www.nber.org/papers/w34102

12.08.2025 15:00 πŸ‘ 28 πŸ” 3 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

I think this way of doing is exactly the right one for figuring out AI tool applications and trying to improve internal processes (albeit it’s not my kind of language). The discovery/alpha/beta cycle or framework can become a straight jacket. Or trap. Or whatever the right metaphor is.

11.07.2025 12:41 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
The types of problem where you need to start small and do it for real - Ways of Doing There are some types of service design problem which are first and foremost about user experience. The assumption that must be tested is: can we

I've started a new blog called 'ways of doing' which is about ways of doing digital. Thanks to @matthewsheret.com for suggesting the name.

09.07.2025 08:54 πŸ‘ 19 πŸ” 7 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 2