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Mick Ryan

@warinthefuture

Strategist, Leader & Author | Retd Army Major General | Senior Fellow in Military Studies @LowyInstitute | @CSIS | Modern & Future war studies | Futura Doctrina substack | #BannedInRussia

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04.07.2023
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Latest posts by Mick Ryan @warinthefuture

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Formula One, the Military and Adapting in Periods of Disruption Both Formula One and military organisations are fighting an intellectual battle to come to grips with a new era in their respective endeavours.

“Both Formula One and military organisations are fighting an intellectual battle to come to grips with a new era in their respective endeavours.” What might each offer the other so that they can remain at the leading edge during a disruptive period. mickryan.substack.com/p/formula-on...

10.03.2026 00:40 👍 48 🔁 3 💬 2 📌 1
Opinion: Blue Takes More Ground Than Red, Naval Naughtiness, Robot Stolen Valor Stefan Korshak, Kyiv Post’s military correspondent, shares his perspective on recent developments in Russia’s war in Ukraine.

A comprehensive update on the war in #Ukraine from Stefan Korshak at the @KyivPost www.kyivpost.com/opinion/71548

09.03.2026 22:35 👍 70 🔁 14 💬 3 📌 1
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A Strategic Learning Deficit: Western Military Institutions Ignored Ukraine War Lessons. The Big Five, 8 March edition My weekly update on war and strategic competition. This week, ignoring Ukraine war lessons hurts, battlefield and long-range strike, PLA operations in the Pacific and my Big 5 reading recommendations.

"Ignoring lessons of modern wars - in an era when war has never been more visible - will hurt you. America & Middle East nations found this out the hard way during the week." My weekly update on #Ukraine, the Middle East & the Pacific.
mickryan.substack.com/p/a-strategi...

09.03.2026 00:38 👍 155 🔁 25 💬 0 📌 2
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Making it up as they go along Where does the war in Iran go from here?

“A bombastic celebration of military strength can only take you so far when there is no obvious strategy for bringing the war to a satisfactory conclusion.” @ldfreedman.bsky.social
samf.substack.com/p/making-it-...

08.03.2026 21:40 👍 159 🔁 29 💬 6 📌 0

Thanks. I try!

08.03.2026 21:04 👍 4 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Orphaned Tactics Oops we did it again

“The war with Iran is little more than the joint targeting process unleashed. The Frankenstein’s monster that is the operational level of war, unsatiated after eating strategy, is now feasting on policy”. @bafriedman.bsky.social

08.03.2026 20:45 👍 412 🔁 119 💬 13 📌 16
Defense Tech Monthly — February.pdf

The latest edition of the Snake Island Institute monthly update is here, and includes: Gerbera and Shahed as “motherships,” launching FPVs mid-flight; & Russia connecting interfamily drones in a single airborne network using Chinese mesh modems. drive.google.com/file/d/1fnzz...

08.03.2026 21:03 👍 96 🔁 14 💬 0 📌 2
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A Strategic Learning Deficit: Western Military Institutions Ignored Ukraine War Lessons. The Big Five, 8 March edition My weekly update on war and strategic competition. This week, ignoring Ukraine war lessons hurts, battlefield and long-range strike, PLA operations in the Pacific and my Big 5 reading recommendations.

"Ignoring lessons of modern wars - in an era when war has never been more visible - will hurt you. America & Middle East nations found this out the hard way during the week. " My weekly update on #Ukraine, the Middle East & the Pacific. mickryan.substack.com/p/a-strategi...

08.03.2026 04:00 👍 194 🔁 42 💬 0 📌 1
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Intel report warns large-scale war ‘unlikely’ to oust Iran’s regime A classified U.S. report doubts that Iran’s opposition would take power following either a short or extended U.S. military campaign.

“A classified report by the National Intelligence Council found that even a large-scale assault on Iran launched by the United States would be unlikely to oust the Islamic republic’s entrenched military and clerical establishment.”
wapo.st/4lcrq3M

08.03.2026 02:38 👍 227 🔁 74 💬 15 📌 15
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Selective Belligerence and Unconditional Surrender What the Iran War May Be Telling President Xi in Beijing and Putin in Moscow

"As the 2nd week of Epic Fury dawns, it is worth pausing the tactical scorecard and asking a tough question. What signal is this war, and political decision-making around it, sending to the leaders of China and Russia?" mickryan.substack.com/p/selective-...

08.03.2026 02:12 👍 132 🔁 28 💬 3 📌 3
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An extraordinary social media post from one "ally" to another.

08.03.2026 02:11 👍 522 🔁 107 💬 100 📌 18
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Selective Belligerence and Unconditional Surrender What the Iran War May Be Telling President Xi in Beijing and Putin in Moscow

"As the 2nd week of Epic Fury dawns, it is worth pausing the tactical scorecard — destroyed missile launchers & sunken Iranian navy ships — and asking a tough question. What signal is this war sending to the leaders of China and Russia?" mickryan.substack.com/p/selective-...

07.03.2026 03:22 👍 163 🔁 37 💬 9 📌 6
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Opinion | Putin is failing. These charts prove it. Data from the battlefield show Ukraine is holding its own.

“U.S. pressure on Ukraine is encouraging Putin to keep fighting and refrain from making compromises necessary for an enduring peace….The way to end this war is not to rescue Putin from a failing campaign, but to help Ukraine make it fail faster.”
wapo.st/4rS0tF6

05.03.2026 23:16 👍 281 🔁 65 💬 6 📌 1
Opinion: Moscow Muddies the Info Waters to Hide How It Has Abandoned Its Ally In modern conflict, narrative is a weapon. The Kremlin understands this. Now the US has a chance to remind the world how treacherous Russia as an ally can be.

“Moscow has consistently chosen to limit its assistance. The US should take the opportunity to counter the Kremlin’s information offensive reminding Putin’s partners: With Russia on your side, you’re on thin ice.”
www.kyivpost.com/opinion/71175

04.03.2026 21:46 👍 129 🔁 22 💬 4 📌 2
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White House rationale for war keeps shifting The president and top aides have offered varying justifications for attacking Iran — from regime change to preemption to eliminating its nuclear program and ballistic missiles.

"The Trump administration gave shifting rationales for its decision to attack Iran, even as U.S. officials with access to intelligence reports said they saw no sign the country had posed an imminent threat to the United States." wapo.st/4aM6zB1

03.03.2026 20:17 👍 125 🔁 25 💬 7 📌 0
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How Trump Decided to Go to War

An interesting look at the Trump administration’s road to war with Iran. www.nytimes.com/2026/03/02/u...

02.03.2026 20:08 👍 63 🔁 12 💬 1 📌 1
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Decapitation, Epic Fury and the Unknown Insights and questions from the initial phase of the new U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran.

"This poses an existential threat to the Iranian regime, and they will throw everything at America & Israel. They will be seeking to survive as a regime. If they do, it will be a victory for them. It would also be a problem for the Trump administration." mickryan.substack.com/p/decapitati...

02.03.2026 06:12 👍 196 🔁 63 💬 10 📌 8
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The New Iran War: Trajectory of the War and its Impact on Ukraine and the Pacific. My normal weekly update on war and strategic competition: this week, the new Iran War, its impact on Ukraine and the Pacific as well as my normal updates from Ukraine and the Pacific theatre.

It has been hectic tracking events in the skies & on the ground in #Iran as well as Iranian retaliatory strikes against Israel and other nations in the Middle East. In this article, I look at the implications of the new war for #Ukraine, and the Pacific theatre. mickryan.substack.com/p/the-new-ir...

01.03.2026 03:09 👍 148 🔁 40 💬 7 📌 2
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Iran and Unexpected Long Wars [Updated] Short wars and interventions, regardless of the intentions of those who design and order them, can easily become long wars. While the attacks have begun, campaign duration remains unknown.

“Wars are full of uncertainty. There is never certainty in war about victory or the direction that a conflict will take. The new war against Iran is no different.” mickryan.substack.com/p/iran-and-u....

28.02.2026 09:29 👍 131 🔁 28 💬 5 📌 4

I just finished this. A terrific book.

28.02.2026 03:36 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
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Iran and Unexpected Long Wars Short wars and interventions, regardless of the intentions of those who design and order them, can easily become long wars. Having clear strategic objectives helps.

This week, J.D. Vance stated "the idea that we’re going to be in a Middle Eastern war for years with no end in sight — there is no chance that will happen." But short wars, regardless of the intentions of those who order them, can easily become long wars. mickryan.substack.com/p/iran-and-u...

28.02.2026 03:20 👍 176 🔁 31 💬 10 📌 1
Is Donbas key to ending Ukraine-Russia war?
Is Donbas key to ending Ukraine-Russia war? YouTube video by Kyiv Independent

As peace talks continue and the U.S. pushes for compromise, one proposal keeps returning: Ukraine should withdraw from the remainder of Ukrainian-controlled Donetsk Oblast.

The Kyiv Independent’s Francis Farrell explains why the Battle of Donbas remains at the center of the peace process.

27.02.2026 19:59 👍 151 🔁 25 💬 14 📌 4
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There’s a lot of things that need to be said today. But there’s one main one:

Thank you Ukraine.

We see you.
We know what you’ve done for us.
We know what we owe you.
We know you will win and take your place as a central defender of the free world.

24.02.2026 13:22 👍 325 🔁 78 💬 8 📌 2
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The Danger in the Middle: Will Xi’s Purges Increase the Risk of War? Chinese leader Xi Jinping has purged dozens of senior People’s Liberation Army officers since mid-2023, including two in January, but will this increase

“The key will be directly influencing Xi’s calculus. Military deterrence, exercises & the revelation of new capabilities, will be of little use if China’s military leadership is either too confident to be intimidated, or too intimidated by Xi to deliver bad news.”
warontherocks.com/2026/02/the-...

25.02.2026 00:50 👍 85 🔁 14 💬 2 📌 0
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The world of hard power and the future of war against Ukraine Recently my name appears in the news more often than the weather forecast changes in London. And, to be honest, sometimes with such a level of creativity that I begin to suspect: somewhere there is a ...

“The reality is that the war in Ukraine has long ceased to be just Ukrainian history. It has become the laboratory of the future. And, like any laboratory, it doesn't ask if we are ready for the experiment.” Zaluzhnyi on 4 years of war.
www.pravda.com.ua/eng/columns/...

24.02.2026 15:22 👍 116 🔁 15 💬 0 📌 1
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The Russia–Ukraine conflict: 1461 days of war It is the human spirit, not hi-tech warfare, that has produced the most valuable lesson from four years on the battle front.

"We must look past the drones, algorithms and other technological artefacts for the essential lesson from this war...Ukraine has shown us what humans, as flawed as we are, can achieve in their finest hour. This is the essential lesson from 1461 days of war." www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpre...

23.02.2026 22:06 👍 488 🔁 133 💬 5 📌 8
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“We’re not the Ukrainians. We don’t need to be exactly like them, but these kinds of insights are valuable for military organisations that want to fight 21st-century wars, not lose by fighting 20th-century wars.” My discussion in The @australian about learning from #Ukraine.
archive.is/VeLHj

23.02.2026 10:32 👍 106 🔁 23 💬 0 📌 1
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Four Years of War, No End in Sight. The Big Five 22 February edition. My regular update on war and great power competition. This week, diplomacy splutters, energy war, Russian mobilisation, StarLink and the Ukraine ground war, as well as my Big Five recommended reads.

"This is a war where a free people determined that they would not permit the forces of dark authoritarianism to overwhelm their history, their culture, their freedoms and their future prosperity." mickryan.substack.com/p/four-years...

23.02.2026 04:48 👍 299 🔁 73 💬 6 📌 3

make that Pauline Shanks Kaurin, @queenofthinair.bsky.social 🙂

23.02.2026 02:21 👍 112 🔁 22 💬 5 📌 0

Russia is building their own, helped by Iranian and Chinese engineers.

22.02.2026 05:18 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0