Remember this? All of this was tragically so predictable and predicted.
11.03.2026 07:11
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Remember this? All of this was tragically so predictable and predicted.
🎙️ON AIR:
We're talking to @myacoubian.bsky.social, @dassakaye.bsky.social and @latimes.com's Nabih Bulos about the war in Iran, its impact on international alliances, and what might come next.
❓What are your questions about what is happening in the Middle East?
📻Listen:
The thing about mixed messages is that it's not a brilliant negotiating tactic if you have no idea what you're trying to achieve and no clear metric for success.
Meanwhile, the mixed messages have a cost on lives and livelihoods for people around the world.
A "short-term excursion" costing billions of dollars, thousands of lives, mass regional and global economic disruption + long-term negative impacts that will outlive this war.
Audiences outside that room--in the US, in the Middle East, around the world--understand this.
WSJ: 'The Long-Feared Persian Gulf Oil Squeeze Is Upon Us: Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has ground to a virtual halt, unleashing the most severe energy crisis since the 1970s threatening the global economy and sending oil prices soaring nearly 60%' www.wsj.com/world/middle...
🔴🇱🇧 Over half a million people (517,000) have been displaced in #Lebanon over the past week in the latest conflict b/w Israel and Hezbollah, the government said
The number is likely higher as the government data comes from the amount of people who registered on their platform
Not only are things looking bad now but there's no plan and unrealistic expectations for the day after this reckless war
There's a reason no previous president took the US down the perilous path of war with Iran despite 47 years of hostility.
define "expert". but point taken.
Iran war “could create a power vacuum in Tehran, sour US allies on their partnerships, and produce ripple effects.. without removing sources of regional strife that have nothing to do with Iran. The risks increase the longer the war goes on.”- Dalia Dassa Kaye
www.foreignaffairs.com/middle-east/...
Also out in @foreignaffairs.com today is an excellent piece by my former colleague Shira Efron raising important questions about the war’s longer term impact on Israel.
“Rather than help usher in a new Middle East, this war is likely to prolong the life of the old one, whether or not change comes to Iran,” writes Dalia Dassa Kaye. “The time to end it is now.”
Walking back Trump’s post a bit. Good.
This is very bad. The best hope for ending this war was Trump declaring victory and stoping the bombing.
If the current regime hangs on, this is going to get a lot worse and many more innocent people are going to die.
All while unleashing longterm damage on US strategic interests.
My new piece in @foreignaffairs.com focusing on the day after is free access right now if you want to check out.
My latest in @foreignaffairs.com on day after challenges and the unrealistic expectations in Washington about what will follow this reckless war
I really hope this turns out to be inaccurate. Every day the war goes on increases the dangers for the US, the region, the world.
Tanker war 2.0? But this time in the midst of a war on land that is already taking up considerable US resources. Was any of this thought through?
you would expect the response to be weak and disjointed.
but you don't need to do much to impose terror. the disruption on markets, air travel, etc. is pretty major. not to mention they don't have bomb shelters in most of the countries getting targeted. this is not a minor thing.
Agree on Houthis.
Great questions from local news in LA as I explain all the challenges arising from this war on Iran:
And feel free to join a @perryworldhouse.bsky.social rapid response webinar later today with other great experts:
And if you missed it here was my chat with @markleongoldberg.bsky.social on Sunday about Trump's war and the dangers ahead:
Here's my latest podcast with @cfr.org talking through how the US got into this war and what may be next:
Correct: "I was told repeatedly that this is a war without a plan, without a strategy, and without any clear understanding of where it leads or how it ends."
thousands of airstrikes across Iran, killing of top leaders, region-wide retaliation from Iran, and now State Department warnings for all US citizens in the Middle East to evacuate (meanwhile air traffic is shut down). This is war.
Ominous. Also why is Egypt here? It’s not in the Iran-Israel crossfire.
This announcement means that the US State Department is ordering hundreds of thousands of US citizens in the Middle East (over 200,000 in Israel alone) to “depart now” on virtually nonexistent commercial transit.
This is not going well. What a reckless mess.
Inside the plan to kill Ali Khamenei - remarkable reporting here by Mehul Srivastava and James Shotter. ie "Nearly all the traffic cameras in Tehran had been hacked for years, their images encrypted and transmitted to servers in Tel Aviv and southern Israel." www.ft.com/content/bf99...
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