Dionis Cenusa

Moldova’s Pro-EU Path Unchanged After Elections: What Are Russia’s Next Steps? – Riddle Russia Denis Cenușă on What a More Empowered Opposition in Parliament Means for Moldova’s Pro-EU Movement

Moldova’s Pro-EU Path Unchanged After Elections: What Are Russia’s Next Steps?, @dioniscenusa.bsky.social writes.
ridl.io/moldova-s-pr... #Moldova #Russia #EU

Moldova’s Pro-EU Path Unchanged After Elections: What Are Russia’s Next Steps? – Riddle Russia Denis Cenușă on What a More Empowered Opposition in Parliament Means for Moldova’s Pro-EU Movement

After the parliamentary elections in #Moldova, the key focus for pro-EU forces should be providing economic growth - otherwise Euroscepticism fueled by Russia will weaken Moldova's European future
@dioniscenusa.bsky.social
ridl.io/moldova-s-pr...

Why Moldova Matters For the past few weeks, the small nation of Moldova in southeastern Europe has received more attention than it would like.

Why Moldova Matters | "For the past few weeks, the small nation of Moldova in southeastern Europe has received more attention than it would like. That signals its importance." @dioniscenusa.bsky.social

If you, inexplicably :-), missed the most recent episode of my 🎙️ #podcast, #TheGlobalAgora, with @dioniscenusa.bsky.social, here it is:
▶️ Moldova's elections: What will happen if pro-Russian forces win? podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/and... #Moldova #EU #Russia #Putinswar #Ukraine

Moldova’s Parliamentary Elections: A Test for the EU, a “Revenge” for Russia? | ISPI With parliamentary elections looming on 28 September, Moldova faces a critical juncture. The outcome could either consolidate its pro-EU trajectory under President Maia Sandu’s party or compel a delic...

My latest piece: “Moldova’s Parliamentary Elections: A Test for the EU, a “Revenge” for Russia?” For @ispionline.bsky.social www.ispionline.it/en/publicati...

Moldova's elections: What will happen if pro-Russian forces win? Andrej Matisak published a post on Ko-fi

Moldova's elections: What will happen if pro-Russian forces win? My 🎙 #podcast, #TheGlobalAgora, with @dioniscenusa.bsky.social.
▶️ ko-fi.com/post/Moldova...
If you enjoy what I do, please buy me coffee ☕️. Thank you! #Moldova #Russia #EU #Ukraine #Putinswar

Moldova's elections: What will happen if pro-Russian forces win? My 🎙 #podcast, #TheGlobalAgora, with @dioniscenusa.bsky.social.
▶️ #Apple podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/m...

▶️ #Spotify open.spotify.com/episode/6RVb...

▶️ #Goodpods goodpods.com/podcasts/the... #Moldova #EU #Russia #politics

Moldova's elections: What will happen if pro-Russian forces win? Listen to another episode of 🎙 #podcast, #TheGlobalAgora. I talked to @dioniscenusa.bsky.social. podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/and... #Moldova #EU #Russia #politics

Is Cyprus an example for Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia? Cyprus' lack of territorial integrity has never posed existential threats for the EU as a whole. But with the three candidates, the situation could be different

What does #Cyprus teach the EU about candidate countries with occupied or separatist territories, such as #Ukraine, #Moldova, and #Georgia?
An interview with @dioniscenusa.bsky.social, associate expert at the Geopolitics and Security Studies Center (GSSC)

newunionpost.eu/2025/09/23/c...

The Black Sea Region and the Impact of the War: geopolitics, geoeconomics and security ‘transversal costs’ and ‘unintended benefits’ | Geopolitics and Security Studies Center, GSSC (previously known a...

My new paper: “The Black Sea Region and the Impact of the War: geopolitics, geoeconomics and security ‘transversal costs’ and ‘unintended benefits’”.

An earlier version of this paper was funded by SONAC, with UK Ministry of Defence. For @gssc-lt.bsky.social

www.gssc.lt/en/publicati...

The Russian versus MAGA Effect on the Romanian Elections: Which Weighs More? – Riddle Russia Denis Cenusa on why Simion’s victory could have positive implications for Russia’s broader geopolitical calculations in the EU

#romania
Simion’s victory could have positive implications for Russia broader geopolitical calculations in the EU.His success would mark the first instance since Trump’s victory where MAGA propels sovereigntists in electoral processes beyond USA
@dioniscenusa.bsky.social
ridl.io/the-russian-...

Think Tank Review - April 2025 EU enlargement and the balance of power in the Council; invest in Europe first; defence expenditure in the context of the EU’s fiscal rules; how the European gas market can wean itself off Russian imp...

We are pleased to share that the @consilium.europa.eu has included a publication “Rethinking the EU’s Eastern Partnership: Three Ways to Upgrade Amid Geopolitical Competition” written by the GSSC analyst @dioniscenusa.bsky.social in its list of recommended research for April.

Read more:

🧭 Russia’s hybrid warfare on EU enlargement Russia’s hybrid tactics — emboldening sovereigntist populism, spreading disinformation, and weaponising economic hardship — threaten EU enlargement.

🧭 #EUEnlargementDilemmas No.12
🪆 Russia is emboldening sovereigntist #populism, spreading #disinformation, and weaponising economic hardship, all of which poses a threat to #EUEnlargement.
🤝 @dioniscenusa.bsky.social suggests countermeasures to protect the EU's resilience.
👇
bit.ly/42Cq4rn

@dioniscenusa.bsky.social on Romania’s far-right rise, Russian fingerprints, and strategic implications for Moldova

Romania’s Radical Turn and Russia’s Influence – Riddle Russia Denis Cenusa on Romania’s far-right rise, Russian fingerprints, and strategic implications for Moldova

In a nutshell: if a far-right guy wins Romania, pro-Russian forces have a much better chance next year in Moldova.
These dynamic is observed with great interest from Moscow
@dioniscenusa.bsky.social
ridl.io/romania-s-ra...

🌍Regional wake-up call: the EU’s Eastern Partnership is at a crossroads. Our associate expert @dioniscenusa.bsky.social explores how EU, Ukraine, Moldova & others navigate growing geopolitical competition, urging the EU to rethink its Eastern strategy.

Read more ⬇️
#Geopolitics #EU

Romania’s Radical Turn and Russia’s Influence – Riddle Russia Denis Cenusa on Romania’s far-right rise, Russian fingerprints, and strategic implications for Moldova

My latest article: “Romania’s Radical Turn and Russia’s Influence” for @RiddleRussia ridl.io/romania-s-ra...

Both situations could have a psychological impact on the Ukrainian civilian population and military forces. The cumulative effect Russia seeks is to delegitimize Zelensky and create unsustainable peace negotiations at the expense of Ukraine's sovereignty.

2) Hungary is blocking EU accession negotiations by refusing to compromise on Ukraine's stance on minority issues. Without the EU integration process, Ukraine is less likely to receive EU accession grants, meaning loans predominate, increasing pressure on the budget and limiting defense resources.⤵️

#Ukraine:

Russia and its main ally in Europe, Hungary, are using two levers to undermine Ukraine's willingness to fight on the battlefield:

1) Moscow is slowing down peace talks, negotiating with the US to reduce aid to Ukraine, and making it more susceptible to concessions;⤵️

The Yerevan-Baku “Peace” Deal and the Fate of the EU’s Mission in Armenia | Geopolitics and Security Studies Center, GSSC (previously known as Eastern Europe Studies Centre, EESC)

My latest article: "The Yerevan-Baku “peace” deal and the fate of the EU’s Mission in Armenia" for @gssc-lt.bsky.social www.gssc.lt/en/publicati...

The Yerevan-Baku “Peace” Deal and the Fate of the EU’s Mission in Armenia | Geopolitics and Security Studies Center, GSSC (previously known as Eastern Europe Studies Centre, EESC)

Peace Between Armenia and Azerbaijan - What’s Next for the EU Mission?

What are the prospects for a peace agreement? What is the future of the EU’s EUMA mission? @gssc-lt.bsky.social Associate Analyst @dioniscenusa.bsky.social explores these questions and more in the latest bulletin.

www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...

3) Trump's decision to ease sanctions on Russian oligarchs clearly favors the stability of Putin's government.

2) If the oligarchs dropped the measure (which they did not), the West thought that Putin's domestic legitimacy and the trajectory of the war would change in Ukraine's favor;⤵️

1) After the outbreak of Russian aggression, sanctioning oligarchs was seen as a way to change the behavior of economic elites close to the Kremlin jeopardizing Putin’s regime;⤵️

#Russia_Sanctions: The US is dropping its pursuit of Russian oligarchs as part of its sanctions mechanism against drug cartels and terrorist groups (domestic angle of security): ⤵️

Aliyev seeks to profit from the self-destructive actions of Russia (large-scale war against Ukraine with geopolitical marginalization in the post-Soviet space) and the US (moving away from “soft power” through development aid to a more “hard power” approach).

#Azerbaijan: Baku has called for the closure of the Russian House and USAID in Azerbaijan, arguing that it does not need external help. Baku is contesting the external influence.

2) the conflict will be resolved through "tough" diplomacy (conditionality and ultimatums are likely to be applied);

and 3) no further financing of the war's continuation (not implying that Ukraine would not receive military aid once the war is concluded).