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Pau Grau-Vilalta

@paugrau

πŸ›  PhDing @eui-sps.bsky.social www.paugrau.cat

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24.09.2023
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Latest posts by Pau Grau-Vilalta @paugrau

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NEW PUBLICATION 🚨 "Street mobilisation during election campaigns in multilevel systems: a supply–demand analysis" with @leonhardschmidt.bsky.social β€” now out in @wepsocial.bsky.social

πŸ”— doi.org/10.1080/01402382.2026.2634027

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09.03.2026 13:01 πŸ‘ 30 πŸ” 7 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0

Not every day you get to present at PBC, looking forward to it!

17.02.2026 14:16 πŸ‘ 5 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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VERY excited for the inaugural @epssnet.bsky.social conference where I will be finally finally (🀞) debuting a corpus of interwar British political speeches I've been working on digitizing for SIX YEARS. Excited to work with @paugrau.bsky.social on the first of (hopefully) many papers with the data.

03.02.2026 20:09 πŸ‘ 9 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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πŸ“£ Call for Papers:
πŸ—“οΈ 23-24 April 2026 at LSE

Submit full papers: forms.office.com/e/9qVWeNTK0p

Please share with colleagues & early-career researchers!

20.01.2026 12:15 πŸ‘ 13 πŸ” 10 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 1
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PBC Where and when? Tuesdays from 17.15h to 18.30h (Rome CET) (generally) in Badia Fiesolana (SPS EUI). The whereabouts of each presentation is indicated below.

Thank you to everyone who applied to present at our Political Behaviour Colloquium for the Spring 2026 term.

We are now pleased to announce the full schedule:
sites.google.com/site/euipolb...

10.01.2026 10:46 πŸ‘ 11 πŸ” 3 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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🚨 Applications Now Open for the EUI PhD Programmes 2026-2027!

πŸ“Š Economics |βš–οΈ Law |πŸ“˜ History | πŸ› Political and Social Sciences

Join the EUI's 50th PhD cohort!

Apply by 15 January 2026 (14:00 CET) for the academic journey of a lifetime! πŸ‘‰: eui.eu/phd

#EUIPhD #PhDOpportunity

01.11.2025 01:15 πŸ‘ 47 πŸ” 64 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 10
Digital Humanities Projects – A Rogue Historian

I found the ones by Jesse Sadler very informative when working with non-decimal currencies, more on the economic side of history, probably: www.jessesadler.com/project

30.12.2025 08:59 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

The @compactmagazin.bsky.social article relies on cherry-picked data.

Looking at ~5M employee records from public universities, we find:

There isn't a secret cabal of white men pulling the strings β€” the *top* diversified the most.

The tenure track hasn't been taken over by female or Black profs.

22.12.2025 17:25 πŸ‘ 9 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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Welcome to the age of zero-sum politics A stalled economic conveyor belt is behind the rise of anti-system, anti-growth parties on both the right and left

This by the excellent @jburnmurdoch.ft.com confirms my view that political trends are being driven by the halting of the upward economic conveyor belt - striking charts: www.ft.com/content/30a4... Welcome to the age of zero-sum politics

19.12.2025 07:31 πŸ‘ 153 πŸ” 62 πŸ’¬ 20 πŸ“Œ 16

This is an impressive project. My reaction to what it shows though is that survey experiments have gotten out of hand in polisci. I will blog more on this, but I do not think survey experiments are emblematic of the credibility revolution. Some are already interpreting as such, which is a problem.

03.12.2025 04:34 πŸ‘ 75 πŸ” 11 πŸ’¬ 8 πŸ“Œ 5
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A hidden gem for PolSci in an Econ journal: mainstream right-wing parties seem to capture only a fraction (!) of the far-right vote when the latter don't run in an election. Crucially, left parties seem to gain votes! A key finding for understanding potential coalitions doi.org/10.1016/j.jp...

28.11.2025 11:21 πŸ‘ 32 πŸ” 14 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 0
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Gaza: Study Reveals Unprecedented Losses of Life & Life Expectancy
Researchers from MPIDR & the Centre for Demographic Studies (CED) investigated the impact of the conflict in Gaza on mortality. Life expectancy 2024 fell to nearly half the level expected without the war. www.demogr.mpg.de/go/GazaLE

25.11.2025 10:11 πŸ‘ 35 πŸ” 20 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 2

I personally think this is a "harder problem" than we care to admit.

So, are you a (social) scientist struggling with this situation? A break between what you _want_ to study (a causal process) and what you feel you _can_ credibly study (a correlation)?

Here are some readings that might help. πŸ‘‡

11.11.2025 11:24 πŸ‘ 18 πŸ” 8 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 1

What is the most profitable industry in the world, this side of the law? Not oil, not IT, not pharma.

It's *scientific publishing*.

We call this the Drain of Scientific Publishing.

Paper: arxiv.org/abs/2511.04820
Background: doi.org/10.1162/qss_...

Thread @markhanson.fediscience.org.ap.brid.gy πŸ‘‡

12.11.2025 10:31 πŸ‘ 337 πŸ” 239 πŸ’¬ 8 πŸ“Œ 17

We have just advertised a Full Prof position in the Political and Social Sciences department at the EUI (@eui-sps.bsky.social). Here are the details. Please spread the word, and get in touch if you have any questions.
www.eui.eu/Documents/Se...

23.10.2025 14:03 πŸ‘ 91 πŸ” 84 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 5

Barcelona this week! Today at @politiquesupf.bsky.social (IPA) I’m presenting joint work with Alejandro LΓ³pez PeceΓ±o and @eliasdinas.bsky.social on how Civil War refugees mobilized the left in postwar France. Next Thursday @ IBEI JCPOP: career incentives vs. ideology in Fascist Italy’s surveillance.

29.10.2025 09:00 πŸ‘ 10 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Gender Differences in Economics Seminars (Forthcoming Article) - We assess whether men and women are treated differently when presenting their economics research. We collected data across thousands of seminars, job market talks and conferenc...

Forthcoming in the AER: "Gender Differences in Economics Seminars" by Pascaline Dupas, Amy Handlan, Alicia Sasser Modestino, Muriel Niederle, Mateo SerΓ©, Haoyu Sheng, Justin Wolfers, and Seminar Dynamics Collective. www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...

21.10.2025 14:02 πŸ‘ 46 πŸ” 28 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 5
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Regrettably relevant research today

Disguised Repression: Targeting Opponents with Nonpolitical Crimes to Undermine Dissent
www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...

09.10.2025 22:54 πŸ‘ 467 πŸ” 179 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 4

Colleagues have backed up the point with data and infographics. The answer is no: political violence in the US is if anything declining, not rising. The far right commits more than the far left, but both are rare, and fewer than 10% of Americans endorse violence for political goals.

13.09.2025 13:22 πŸ‘ 155 πŸ” 64 πŸ’¬ 9 πŸ“Œ 4
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Sweeteners can harm cognitive health equivalent to 1.6 years of ageing, study finds Researchers say low- and no-calorie sweeteners appear to affect thinking and memory in middle age

"Sweeteners can harm cognitive health equivalent to 1.6 years of ageing, study finds"

Or does it? Let's take a look at this "study"...

www.theguardian.com/food/2025/se...

05.09.2025 16:45 πŸ‘ 522 πŸ” 174 πŸ’¬ 27 πŸ“Œ 110

πŸ§ͺ We ran a preregistered endorsement experiment with 4,000+ Spaniards.
We tested whether VOX voters support funding for cultural orgs, including the Francisco Franco Foundation (which glorifies the dictatorship).

28.08.2025 07:55 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Please share this thread. It is important that political scientists, in Europe and across the world, understand why EPSS exists and why we are encouraging people to attend our inaugural conference, in Belfast next June.

07.08.2025 16:48 πŸ‘ 114 πŸ” 74 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 1
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On Data and Democracy (Mid-Year Roundup): Charting the Assault on American Democracy and A Path Forward A narrative of a democracy in the balance, told through 29 data visualizations.

Been a busy year in the data mines.πŸ“Š Just published my mid-year roundup: 29 data visualizations on the state of US democracy, tracking everything from judicial resistance to billionaire influence to why Dems have a mobilization crisis, not a moderation problem.

All charts free to use:

19.07.2025 15:44 πŸ‘ 225 πŸ” 102 πŸ’¬ 11 πŸ“Œ 24

"This paper finds that Jews are included in β€œthe people” when this is ideologically conducive to the parties, when it can appear to justify Islamophobia and anti-immigration sentiment, and when antisemitism can be used to argue that β€œthe elite” are ignorant and incompetent"

10.07.2025 08:16 πŸ‘ 6 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Currently in FirstView: In β€œThe Modifiable Areal Unit Problem in Political Science,” @dwlee.bsky.social, @melissazrogers.bsky.social‬, and Hillel David Soifer discuss the MAUP and how the size of spatial units and the location of their borders affect empirical results.

07.07.2025 15:41 πŸ‘ 9 πŸ” 5 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 1

On the one hand, a complex sense of how race, ethnicity, nationalism, migration, bias, displacement, intermarriage and acculturation forge an identity and, on the other, puzzlement that decades of this history doesn’t fit cleanly in a five-item box.

05.07.2025 20:37 πŸ‘ 463 πŸ” 100 πŸ’¬ 6 πŸ“Œ 3
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July 4th, 2025

05.07.2025 02:42 πŸ‘ 303 πŸ” 120 πŸ’¬ 9 πŸ“Œ 21
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New WP w/ @riazsascha.bsky.social: via >42 million placebo tests, we show type I error inflation in Unexpected Event during Survey Designs (UESD), propose an adjustment, implement via new R package uesdRobust, and demonstrate utility by replicating two top UESD studies.

osf.io/preprints/os...

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01.07.2025 14:44 πŸ‘ 94 πŸ” 36 πŸ’¬ 4 πŸ“Œ 3
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What shapes repression levels? We argue that bureaucrats' incentives play a major role.

Come to the presentation of the work with Lorenzo Vicari and Andrea Xamo at #EPSA2025 today.

πŸ—“οΈ Friday 11:20-13:00
πŸ“ Room -1.A.03 | Panel P7-S164

27.06.2025 07:00 πŸ‘ 13 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

This is fantastic. Very excited by this development in European Political Science.

Please come and join us. Get involved. Sign up to the listserv. Etc

26.06.2025 17:10 πŸ‘ 67 πŸ” 18 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0