www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder...
06.03.2025 02:07
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Knowing and not knowing:
arielrubinstein.org/articles/Per...
I tried to post this before but got the URL wrong.
This is about what Israelis know about Gaza. I wonder what Russians, or Americans, know, or don't know, or don't want to know, about what Russia is doing.
"Strong opinions, weakly held" was a quote from ME, in 2000.
This paper may part of the answer to your question.
www.sas.upenn.edu/~baron/paper... par. 7 of "Discussion"
Other beliefs are constructed so as to be irrefutable. How, for example, do you test the belief that "God hears my prayers"?
Another view of "reflection" is that it is the habit of taking time to avoid errors. The dimension of reflection/impulsivity is defined as (roughly) accuracy + (log) response time. I have proposed (in a paper they cite, but ignore) that this is what accounts for the predictive power of the CRT.
The antipathy to vaccines in Robert Kennedy and other potential Trump appointees appears to be partly motivated by omission bias. If a vaccine has improbable risks of side effects set against huge risks of not getting it, they say that it is "not safe".
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Composers in the concert-hall tradition seem to be in demand for film music, possibly because it is streamed and more is being done. Not 30 second songs. Often minimalist. You do not hear Max Richter's music in concert halls, but in "My brilliant friend" and streaming directly on Idagio.com.
If you are lucky enough to be responsive to reason, you do not need luck to justify your beliefs. You can explain why your belief is better without resorting to luck. Luck is still part of the explanation of your belief, but no longer a justification.
Me: "Lots of other people disagree with you. What makes you so sure you are right?" You: "I was lucky to be raised with correct beliefs." Me: "But those on the other side would say the same thing" You: "They are wrong" [Hmm]
