Latest @atlantafed.org wage growth tracker printing today at 3.7% vs. 3% for core PCE (new numbers tomorrow). Wage inflation often gradually outruns after a surge, so the catch-up continues. Restraining prices back to 2% target would speed it up even more. www.atlantafed.org/research-and...
Often I have the gratifying experience of beginning with a paper I find almost impenetrable on first read (no fault of the authors--just tough stuff!) but fighting my way to understand the meaning and significance of the work, to arrive at a summary that 🤞 lets others in as well.
How has our district's economy been uniquely affected by current events? Our team spoke to businesses and employers across the region and brings those insights to our latest #BeigeBook report and video.
Find the full report here: https://www.minneapolisfed.org/beige-book-reports/2026/2026-03-mi
Gov. Waller this a.m.: "Jobs last year [were] 181,000 and that’s going to get revised down, trust me. 2.9 million people entered the labor force despite the immigration [drop], OK?" Connection to my recent vid: Off-the-sidelines flow pumping workers in (2mil in Jan.) in the face of stagnant demand.
Been waiting for fresh labor flows data to see if the "back in the job hunt" trend I wrote about last year is still a thing. It is. Maybe not the biggest factor affecting the labor market right now, but notable (and counterintuitive to see more people getting back in the game when hiring is weak).
Independent research from within the Fed system is essential to getting a clear-eyed view of tariffs. Another recent paper, from our corner: www.minneapolisfed.org/article/2026...
Massive revision to 2025 employment growth raises big questions about the huge drumroll & resources expended by media to cover each month's jobs numbers. All of that effort appears meaningless now that the year's job gains were revised down by 69%. Is the monthly data any use at all to policymakers?
A person smiling for a selfie next to their car; an illustration of several individuals looking at a "Now Hiring" poster.
Alongside modest job creation, the new jobs numbers show # of Americans coming off the sidelines to look for work hit a multi-year high (~2 million)--a force pushing up on unemployment. @jeffhorwich.bsky.social recently looked at who's getting back in the hunt. https://bit.ly/48THtxH
Designing a better measure to capture the overall burden of tariffs. 🧐 Great new paper I had the pleasure to write up.
At each horizon, inflation expectations appear to be stabilizing around 3 percent. Bond markets might be "smarter," and recent history shows consumers err on the high side on this question. Still, it's not exactly what you'd like to see when 2 percent is the target.
For now, at least, the nice irony of Spotify's new AI playlist tool is that you can use it effectively to ban AI music and ghost artists from your stream. Use AI to thwart Spotify's attempt to dilute our listening with cheap-or-zero-royalty playlist fodder--yay!
If you're watching @minneapolisfed.bsky.social's @neilmehrotra.bsky.social on @brookings.edu this morning, here's a nontechnical summary of the research: "The optimal way for a central bank to regard housing inflation? Ignore it." Link there to the formal paper!🏘️ minneapolisfed.org/article/2024...
No worries! I spent a lot of time with that paper. 😄
The researchers have a giant dataset that (anonymously) links credit bureau, IRS, and Census records at the individual level, for 2004-2020. So they've got race as reported directly via census (not derived via zip code). Credit bureaus never knew race, fwiw. www.minneapolisfed.org/article/2026...
A line chart with two lines for the monthly U.S. trade deficit and a three-month moving average.
New U.S. trade data for Nov. 2025: Trade deficit (goods and services) almost doubles from October to $57 billion. Census notes largest ever % monthly increase in trade deficit in goods. Just one month, but a reversal of prior trend toward lower deficit. census.gov/foreign-trad...
Jennifer N. has been getting back into the job hunt after a long break from the labor market. She's not the only one: 6 million Americans got off the sidelines (and into unemployment) in 2025-Q3, a big jump. But what a labor market! @jeffhorwich.bsky.social has more. https://bit.ly/48THtxH
New article on a paper recently presented at our @oiginstitute.bsky.social research conference. Tremendous dataset they are unpacking.
"As excess post-pandemic savings have run out, household mortgage and consumer debt burdens have risen again to near pre-pandemic levels. Credit card delinquencies are at the highest point in 13 years. Life is simply more expensive; the overall price level has risen 25 percent since COVID, with some of the steepest increases for household necessities like groceries and housing (both up 29 percent)."
More: Thinking about why people are going back... there are as many stories as job-seekers, but unlike the last time re-entry was hot, it's rough out there for many households. www.minneapolisfed.org/article/2025...
A line chart. The line labeled flow from not-in-the-labor-force into unemployment is rising. A line for the U.S. hiring rate is falling.
Today's jobs data: Unemployment rate 📈to 4.6%, long-term unemployment remains elevated. Part of what's going on: Rising flows of people outside the labor force coming off the sidelines and entering unemployment. My latest @minneapolisfed.bsky.social ➡️ www.minneapolisfed.org/article/2025...
Been thinking about rising prices & debt driving people back to work in a stagnant job market. Then Sept. jobs data came out & confirmed inconvenient fact that "low hire" economy includes rising flows into unemployment. New today @minneapolisfed.bsky.social➡️ www.minneapolisfed.org/article/2025...
New BLS #JOLTS today, including Sept. and Oct. -- still "low-hire/low-fire" out there. bls.gov/jlt/
New video. Great suggestion by a colleague to take on this topic!
Today's @axios.com Macro newsletter gives two theories for divergent GDP & jobs: Either "something's gotta give" and GDP will weaken, or jobs weakness is overdone. Not discussed tho: Concentrated benefits from AI & robust consumer spending heavily tilted to the top end. www.axios.com/newsletters/...
New term for me, esp. interesting in light of recent econ Nobel: "Involution" sounds like "creative destruction" on steroids. www.wsj.com/world/china/... "China’s economy is trapped in a cycle of competition so fierce that it is destroying profits and fueling a deflationary spiral"
Finally, @atlantafed.org wage-growth tracker has been running ahead of annual change in CPI and PCE since early 2023. People still hate inflation (that is to say, I think, they hate the price level we are stuck with) but wages on the whole are gaining ground again. (5/5)
Price inflation is usefully seen in light of wage inflation. In broad strokes, by one view, ECI "total compensation" still trails the CPI since Covid but has caught up to PCE... (4/5)
Also like to check @newyorkfed.bsky.social Economic Heterogeneity Indicators, which continue to show differences, but narrower ones as overall inflation has fallen... www.newyorkfed.org/research/eco... (3/5)
...and here's the cumulative price increase for these income-based baskets over the life of that series (which BLS extended retroactive to Dec. 2005). That's a 9 percentage point difference in inflation experienced by lowest and highest quintile households...(2/5)
Do low-income folks get higher inflation? This week for an interview, I refreshed my data on "inflation by income" from the BLS research series, which is now current through end of 2024. Here's the *cumulative* price rise (by income) since Covid... (1/5)
