There's also this view from experts in UK tax take from our oil & gas sector
10.03.2026 13:15
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There's also this view from experts in UK tax take from our oil & gas sector
On the tax base: bsky.app/profile/tess...
The idea the North Sea is some great goldmine waiting to be tapped is entirely at odds with reality.
Tbf there are also arguments why it won’t make much difference to the tax base either. Maybe there’s a big find out there that would change that calculation, but that’s a much longer shot than the original article implies.
bsky.app/profile/tess...
More likely, the output won’t arrive for 10 years…
The North Sea is the key to our energy security--just not O&G. Our wind resources are how we bring down bills, create abundant energy and, if done right, create a manufacturing base and prosperity in places that need it. That’s what resilience looks like, not an aging expensive oil & gas basin. END
The reality is that the oil & gas that’s already in the pipeline would take us well past safe climate limits. FWIW, that’s why the Lib Dem’s climate spokesperson is clear that they oppose new oil and gas licences. www.ucl.ac.uk/bartlett/new...
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This is to say nothing of the wisdom of new extraction when climate change is driving food price inflation, flooding and wildfires, that together are leading to an insurability crisis and real damage to living standards in the UK. E.g Record heat/drought cost arable farmers here £800m+ in 2025
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The successor to the WF tax won't kick in until gas is above 90p/therm & oil above $90/barrel. Those thresholds are too high--above prices that will cause ordinary people significant pain. Below those thresholds, the UK will revert to some of the most generous tax rates in the world for oil & gas /8
Leunig also calls the sector an important tax base. But in the aged North Sea basin, the industry relies on low tax rates for projects to be profitable. When tax rates rise, as with the 2022 WF tax, the industry claims it won’t invest and has to fire workers (despite huge payouts to shareholders)
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It takes about a decade for a new North Sea licence to produce gas. For long-term insurance against security crises and dependence on a single producer, there is no better answer than renewables, which have already displaced significant volumes of LNG imports. www.renewableuk.com/news-and-res...
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Analysis also shows that new fields licensed over the 14 years of Conservative government have produced just over a month’s worth of gas to date and have the potential to produce - in their lifetime - less than 6 months worth of UK gas demand. Not to mention--if you're worried about crises now...
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Jackdaw, one of the UK's largest undeveloped gas fields, if approved would reduce annual gas dependency by just 2% on average. According to the regulator, even if new fields are developed, by 2050 the UK will be almost entirely reliant on gas imports www.upliftuk.org/post/why-tru...
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Contrast this with Norway’s part of the North Sea, which has been managed for the long-term by the state rather than--as in the UK--being maxed out by commercial operators with the gov’t’s blessing (not to mention Norway's continental shelf extends beyond the North Sea).
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1st, let’s be clear about whether or not new drilling will have a meaningful impact on security of supply or our relative dependence on the US for LNG imports. After 50 years of extraction, most of the UK’s gas has been burned.
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Helpfully Tim Leunig accepts as a premise that more North Sea drilling won’t make oil nor gas more affordable in the UK.
But his arguments about tax and the strategic benefit of allowing more North Sea licensing are flawed in key ways (as well as in ways that James has pointed out). Long 🧵 below:
Many thanks, Andrew!
Apropos of nothing, nothing at all, you should follow @tessakhan.bsky.social and @zoeavison.bsky.social. For all the hard truths and realism you need about the North Sea
Last year Scotland's only oil refinery closed at Grangemouth, leading to more than 400 job losses and threatening thousands more. I worked with @riyokoshibe.bsky.social interviewing Grangemouth workers as they faced redundancy. On Tuesday we're presenting research at MMU in Manchester. Come along!
Missions succeed when public finance delivers public value.
While the UK is on track to deliver its Clean Power mission w its expansion in offshore wind, it must learn from the failures of PFI era and financialisation of utilities like Thames Water: don’t socialise risks & privatise rewards.
6️⃣ So many benefits will flow if we break free from business-as-usual.
Here is energy expert @tessakhan.bsky.social explaining why a renewables-based energy system is so superior.
Yes, the Government is pushing to green our grid, but that is only around a fifth of our energy use.
#NEB2025
New post just out:
"Power to the People"
Today we have a guest post from @jamestplunkett.bsky.social on how Labour can counter the "Britain is Broken" narrative by investing in civic life and giving people more control over their community.
(Free to read)
open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/p...
Very helpful thread ⬇️
Great to see!!
Have to take a moment to celebrate this historic win for the climate. Even though everyone knows it’s needed, it’s no small thing to commit to leaving fossil fuels in the ground.
Epic work from the likes of Uplift and a Secretary of State who is doing the absolute best he can with what he’s got.
Here's my take: bsky.app/profile/tess...
All up, this is a major break from past approaches to the N Sea, which have left industry in charge & hoped for the best. That approach has devastated communities & led to companies laying off workers while making huge profits. There's much more to do but this at least feels like a new start.
/END
The plan establishes a North Sea Future Board w union representation to oversee delivery. The Board is tasked with doing more to support the supply chain. It’s crucial that the Board, which should also include the Scottish gov, strengthens the overall plan for North Sea workers and communities.
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There's also been a recognition that for offshore wind to create jobs at scale, we need to ramp up manufacturing, upgrade port infrastructure, as well as support workers to redeploy in new sectors & ensure supply chains can pivot. The new plan doesn't get us there & needs to go much further
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The UK govt deserves some credit for recognising there's a need for a plan & taking big steps forward in the last year, including its Clean Energy Jobs Plan, which was welcomed by trade unions & recognises the need & potential for the transition to deliver good jobs in the UK's O&G heartlands
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