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TradFi Reply Guy

@tradfireplyguy

rates/fx trader sun, tribeca mom moon, macro troll rising

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Latest posts by TradFi Reply Guy @tradfireplyguy

this one’s a bit self correct then?

30.06.2025 23:11 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

just used this thread to sound smart at my job ty sir

30.05.2025 15:06 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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16.05.2025 12:10 πŸ‘ 4 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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Trade and the End of Antiquity featured in today's Chartbook Top Link.

18.04.2025 17:03 πŸ‘ 81 πŸ” 21 πŸ’¬ 7 πŸ“Œ 4

memes, tariff at risk and high beta vs low beta (eg junky) names are up the most today and those would be my thematic factor decomposition of tsla returns.

24.03.2025 20:00 πŸ‘ 4 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

i look at credit spreads and think they’re tight but also think about how true final stage EM-ification could see corp $ debt at lower abs yields than tsy… esp if selectively default (vs the β€œprint more” that some assume guarantees the principle)

24.02.2025 14:11 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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imagine
a) having the vision to have $140bn to invest in AI since 2017
b) getting shook out of a $5bn NVDA position in 2019 that would have made the fund++
c) being flat after having been in a 3Y drawdown

21.02.2025 21:43 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

this is a good idea

14.02.2025 16:15 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

finally

04.02.2025 00:41 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

there was nothing wrong with t3 and we should go back

23.12.2024 18:19 πŸ‘ 6 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 1

we should go back

08.12.2024 15:53 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

lol

05.12.2024 20:39 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

hear the larger β€œthis not a sov spiral” point but spread it to german bonds to see impact - EUR growth/ inflation pxing came off a lot in that time

04.12.2024 22:15 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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I see Ian Bremmer's account has arrived at Bluesky

04.12.2024 06:46 πŸ‘ 28 πŸ” 3 πŸ’¬ 4 πŸ“Œ 1

we should go back to t+3, at the very least

04.12.2024 03:08 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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28.11.2024 13:56 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

The Salmon hats are back. An empire shall fall

27.11.2024 22:33 πŸ‘ 449 πŸ” 87 πŸ’¬ 14 πŸ“Œ 5

i agree tbh - kill zombie corps.

27.11.2024 20:40 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

i’m AI skeptical but it has helped me write lang i don’t speak. best to ask for small discrete pieces.

project plan gen -> level down components gen -> level down functions/ scripts (one by one) that i can debug indv

can’t do whole hog, but can get you plan and pipes for u to connect

26.11.2024 18:58 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

really gets the ol noggin joggin

26.11.2024 03:54 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Everyone's like "The Phantom Menace was bad because the conflict was about space tariffs," but this is wrong. The Phantom Menace was bad because it didn't care about the space tariffs.

23.11.2024 19:20 πŸ‘ 41 πŸ” 10 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 5

pls fix axis label format

26.11.2024 03:37 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
Trump's Potential Treasury Secretary on Macro Strategy ft. Scott Bessent
Trump's Potential Treasury Secretary on Macro Strategy ft. Scott Bessent YouTube video by Real Vision

from april 24.

39:00 he talks about policy and sounds hawkish/ comes out against yellen funding w more bills since 22

my q tho - what was the alternative? issue notes and steepen the curve w stocks already down 20+?

great way to cause the debt panic that you so fear

youtu.be/xENnM4WNWus?...

23.11.2024 02:46 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
What Makes a Great Macro Fund Manager? With Scott Bessent of Key Square Capital Management
What Makes a Great Macro Fund Manager? With Scott Bessent of Key Square Capital Management YouTube video by Money Maze Podcast

shockingly competent pick. he knows his stuff; the soros/druck/Duquesne guys are good.

folks forget tho, it’s not like he gets to determine the deficit - that’s for congress.

certainly helps to have a patriotic and competent set of hands (he’s no gaetz/gabbard)

youtu.be/kSBkxsstbVg?...

23.11.2024 00:23 πŸ‘ 5 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

what signs are you seeing? they’ve often looked cheap the past decade

22.11.2024 13:24 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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me spending my daily $30 at rigor hill market

21.11.2024 14:34 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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we gotta get Peter Zeihan on bluesky he’s always complaining about twitter and i like his maps - this one showing why russia is so interested in places like Abkhazia (2008), Crimea (2014), and Ukraine (2022)
@peterzeihan.bsky.social

21.11.2024 13:34 πŸ‘ 4 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

still outperforming the panthers tho

21.11.2024 04:16 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

nah all good elon is cutting $2tn of spending. 4.20% surplus secured.

21.11.2024 01:01 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

🫑

20.11.2024 20:19 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0