Witch King of Angmar seems like a DOGE bro, in retrospect.
14.03.2026 03:38
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Witch King of Angmar seems like a DOGE bro, in retrospect.
setting a big box on fire labeled LOAD BEARING TAIWAN INVASION DETERRENCE and staring back at CCP like a contestant on the price is right
This is amazing.
Note to self: Add survey question "Are you similar to this survey's nonrespondents?
And
"Please report your survey response aversion percentile. If you don't know what I mean, first read a half dozen papers by Ed Vytlacil that don't obviously have anything to do with surveys."
Also game theory unfortunately can produce some pretty dark advice for what the new boy should do on day 1 of prison, especially when another prisoner gets aggressive with them.
Being an annoying economist means reading this and saying,
"Obviously you predict crews get x>>>1 times higher wages because of the possibility of being blown up, and surely that is being priced in." (Apparently not?)
Insurance isn't impossible. It's unfathomably expensive.
I think poker players call this an inside straight.
"Hey sorry brother, the bones foretell what the bones foretell. What can I say, maybe Loki got in 'em? I did it right in front of you, here's the bone tome, go nuts, man, you tell me! Anyway, looks like it'll be a good harvest, I saw a grey groundhog run west and Venus is living for the vibe."
The purpose of a system is what it does.
In this case, leopards eating their own faces for once.
@andreamatranga.bsky.social
Did soothsayers ever pre-register their advice to rulers to avoid being executed?
Is this the mechanism whereby scientific research obtained a shred of credibility?
I'm wondering how incentives ever arose for real research to be done, with so many for p-hacking/etc.
Who could possibly be better suited for ensuring the safety of athletes at the world cup than the inaugural recipient of the FIFA Peace Prize.
If only he were here!
Lay-review of research grants for normative alignment is appropriate in a Democracy, but not like this.
E.g. a non-expert
Rejecting all research that asks
"Does X predict Y?"
And
Approving all research that asks
"Does X cause Y?"
Is ok *if such standards are formally codified via legislation*.
WBAL in Baltimore helping viewers understand the difference between watches and warnings
I am begging this administration to hire a single 13 year old who has played and won a game of Sid Meier's Civilization (on any difficulty!) to help them with their foreign policy.
We need to normalize malpractice lawsuits against dishonest researchers.
Gotta go with Yi(D,Z) a la AIR '96.
Gotta put some assumptions on those potential outcomes.
Lots of coordinates are not in its coordinate map, fam.
Claude was a MESS a few months ago when I asked it for help with the proof in arxiv.org/abs/2404.17693, for instance. It was no help at all.
For now I feel proud of the novelty, but reviewers are free to help me with my pride as needed.
Something a little underdiscussed about including AI in your workflow is that it's kinda fun. YMMV.
I feel like Luke Skywalker asking R2 to put in the coordinates to some distant star system, then it says "beep beep!" and I say "No, come on, what do you mean it isn't in your coordinate map!?"
I wonder if Tylenol would survive such a review.
"Number of people suffering from sinus headaches not reported so population is not in scope."
Green Eggs and Ham is a great book but maybe questionable as a survey methodology text.
I agree that this is...not good. Curious even.
I wonder if Tylenol would survive such a review.
"Number of people suffering from sinus headaches not reported so population is not in scope."
Green Eggs and Ham is a great book but maybe questionable as a survey methodology text.
I keep seeing it so I'm just going to say that it is controversial to say that Data centers / AI are propping up "the economy".
If these things have social costs that exceed their benefits, they are propping up measurement error.
Not clear to me this is the case, but it's a mainstream concern.
I'm thinking about school choice and peer effects applications where a large number of (un)observed treatments are randomly assigned in correlated ways.
But instead I feel like the appropriate thing to say is "Don't blow up schools", "don't terrorize immigrants".
I feel like a pull string dummy.
A very small annoyance on top of a mountain of atrocities with the recent political climate is that I feel weird making casual or even work-related observations on here because I feel like I should be "solving" some urgent violent idiocy that I have no expertise in other than common sense/decency.
DC folks actually sort of need to demand that heads roll over this. It’s a real problem if law enforcement in the capital is so pathetic, weak, and supine that their instinct is to act as stormtroopers for illicit federal power grabs.
Turns out lawlessness is not a winning strategy. See you at Nuremberg 2.0
I am so tired of hearing about Trump goons getting called into Congress to get scolded by Democrats.
I want to hear about bills (killed by Reps is fine for now) that would charge every employee of ICE/DHS/etc with 75,000 counts of aiding and abetting kidnapping, etc.
abcnews.com/Politics/noe...
To make more of a point, maybe there is a takeaway for politicians other than "voters are clueless!" (True)
Such as, peoples' responses are explainable under certain misconceptions and we should systematically tailor laws/messaging around those misconceptions.
"No welfare for cannibals!" Etc
Innumerate and misconceptions that vary arbitrarily.
I wonder how often people have reasonable opinions re: conditional policies and crazy ones re: event probabilities.
E.g. supporting citizenship for non-criminal immigrants, but not "immigrants", and being super wrong re: Pr(criminal|immigrant).
I remember this one from Sunday school. God is trinary.