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Ralph Scott

@ralphscott

Leverhulme research fellow in politics at Bristol uni. ITV psephologist. Investigating the effect of education on political attitudes and behaviour, among other things. ralphscott.co.uk

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Latest posts by Ralph Scott @ralphscott

The wonderful world of the British political-media ecosystem, where you can hold entire events about trends you've made up and which experts - who are crucially not invited - have debunked multiple times.

12.03.2026 11:48 πŸ‘ 84 πŸ” 20 πŸ’¬ 4 πŸ“Œ 0
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There were no faces on British banknotes at all - not even the Queen - until 1963

So only 12 people had yet appeared on notes from 1970-2005
www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/...

11.03.2026 22:56 πŸ‘ 10 πŸ” 4 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0
Preview
Sheffield Hallam restricts TPS access to REF academics only Teaching staff at post-92 institution to be employed by subsidiary firm and loseΒ right to access expensive pensions scheme

This is terrible, and made worse by fact that SHU has also historically been an institution which employs a lot of teaching only staff. My dad worked there for 25 years and him and his entire department (maths) were teaching only! (That might have changed since, but was case in 2015 when he retired)

11.03.2026 09:36 πŸ‘ 12 πŸ” 7 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Thanks Alex!

09.03.2026 20:22 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Thanks Peter!

09.03.2026 20:22 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Thank you Jon!

09.03.2026 20:21 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Thanks Paula!

09.03.2026 20:21 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Thanks Chris!

09.03.2026 20:21 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Yes I'll be there, albeit not for the whole thing sadly!

09.03.2026 20:21 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Diolch Tom!

09.03.2026 18:58 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Equally surprised and delighted to win this!

09.03.2026 18:45 πŸ‘ 47 πŸ” 6 πŸ’¬ 16 πŸ“Œ 0

Congratulations to @yamilrvelez.bsky.social, @patrickpliu.bsky.social, and @scottclifford.bsky.social !

we think attitudes are some function of beliefs; our exps routinely move beliefs but not (even correlated) attitudes. This team found a way to guess which beliefs matter more (and they do!)

09.03.2026 16:37 πŸ‘ 25 πŸ” 7 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
Chart showing lifetime average GDP growth for Brits by year of birth. 20-year-old Brits have experienced an average of 1.4% growth, compared with 2.4% for 75-year-olds

Chart showing lifetime average GDP growth for Brits by year of birth. 20-year-old Brits have experienced an average of 1.4% growth, compared with 2.4% for 75-year-olds

Part of the issue is a lack of growth. A recent study showed that cohorts who experience more GDP growth in their lifetimes are more likely to trust the government and have positive perceptions of their living standards. academic.oup.com/qje/advance-... In Britain, such voters are dying out

05.03.2026 14:58 πŸ‘ 132 πŸ” 42 πŸ’¬ 7 πŸ“Œ 8
Polling from More in Common shows that Greens and Reform win a higher share of voters who struggle to make ends meet, while Labour and the Conservatives win those who are most financially comfortable

Polling from More in Common shows that Greens and Reform win a higher share of voters who struggle to make ends meet, while Labour and the Conservatives win those who are most financially comfortable

Reform UK and the Greens are hoovering up financially insecure voters. My piece this week looks at the return of Britain's class politics (with a twist) www.economist.com/britain/2026...

05.03.2026 14:52 πŸ‘ 184 πŸ” 86 πŸ’¬ 15 πŸ“Œ 24
Preview
Wealthy Dubai residents race back to UAE to avoid tax bills Some risk spending too few days in the emirate and too many in the UK

Tax exiles stuck in London desperately trying to get *back* to Dubai to avoid becoming tax resident in the UK? Just great stuff. giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...

05.03.2026 11:55 πŸ‘ 4017 πŸ” 1255 πŸ’¬ 206 πŸ“Œ 329

Agree with this - I remember saying as much at the EPOP panel for the book!

05.03.2026 11:54 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Deluded. Labour lost about ten points during the course of the 2024 campaign. A strategic triumph it was not.

05.03.2026 11:15 πŸ‘ 423 πŸ” 99 πŸ’¬ 36 πŸ“Œ 11

It definitely helped me understand better why reformist monarchs might fail though, both due to threats from within the family and among other aristocratic factions (let alone the geopolitical threats).

04.03.2026 11:53 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Is this the β€œhousehold name” that Reform were promising last month? Because if so, they should have added the caveat β€œif your household read Private Eye’s Rotten Boroughs column between 2002-2018”

04.03.2026 11:45 πŸ‘ 95 πŸ” 20 πŸ’¬ 8 πŸ“Œ 0
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Late deciders, higher turnout: what the Gorton and Denton byelection taught us about voters High numbers of undecideds may partially explain the late swing to the Greens.

New piece from w/ @hannahbunting.bsky.social & @jess-smith.bsky.social on the Gorton & Denton byelection, and what it might tell us about British politics.

We cover turnout, late-deciding voters, gender gaps & the continuing fragmentation of the party system 🧡

theconversation.com/late-decider...

04.03.2026 08:40 πŸ‘ 13 πŸ” 21 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 1

Farage/Yusuf "disenfranchise to deport" plan

* largest ever removal of voting rights in any democracy

* largest deportation plan of legal migrants in any democracy ever

* first deportation plan for permanent residents since Idi Amin expelled 80k Asians. Reform plan is much bigger: up to 400k+

04.03.2026 08:33 πŸ‘ 23 πŸ” 20 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 5

GB News are now bringing Restore Britain on to the channel to tell their own black British presenter, born in Newcastle, she is not British - and it is "ridiculous" to define being British in a way that includes black people.

03.03.2026 21:15 πŸ‘ 384 πŸ” 137 πŸ’¬ 56 πŸ“Œ 11
Preview
Beyond Forecasting: Using MRP (multi-level regression with post-stratification) to investigate minority political behaviour at The University of Manchester on FindAPhD.com PhD Project - Beyond Forecasting: Using MRP (multi-level regression with post-stratification) to investigate minority political behaviour at The University of Manchester, listed on FindAPhD.com

*Academics of Bluesky:* Do you know a great UG/PG student with excellent quants skills?

@nspmartin.bsky.social and I are advertising a great fully-funded PhD on MRP and minority voting with our friends at Ipsos, so send them our way! ✌️

www.findaphd.com/phds/project...

03.03.2026 16:16 πŸ‘ 18 πŸ” 35 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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That "Danish Model" he went for is paying off in Denmark too, latest polls:
SD : 22.1% (-5.4)
SF : 13.2% (+4.9)

Exactly three weeks from an election

03.03.2026 15:19 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0

Yes - this does make think that funders/institutions would probably have to provide the data to do this work here, and are perhaps unlikely to do so given the incentives. Might also make sense not just to evaluate HEIs/depts on whether PhD students complete but also whether they get a job!

03.03.2026 13:31 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

British Academy response to the Department for Education's technical consultation on the Interational Student Levy
18 February 2026
Background
The Department for Education is consulting on the proposed levy on international student income, due to be introduced in England in August 2028.

British Academy response to the Department for Education's technical consultation on the Interational Student Levy 18 February 2026 Background The Department for Education is consulting on the proposed levy on international student income, due to be introduced in England in August 2028.

β€˜We remain deeply concerned that universities will be unable to absorb the cost of the levy’s
introduction. The loss of cross-subsidy for domestic teaching & research will harm
universities’ ability to deliver their core functions’
Our response to the levy
www.thebritishacademy.ac.uk/documents/60...

03.03.2026 12:06 πŸ‘ 33 πŸ” 31 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 1
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As Maria Sobolewska and I first said in Brexitland, the legacy parties under FPP are like Tinkerbell - they need belief to survive. if people cease to believe they see the best and only options, they can die fast. Is this the moment Labour’s Tinkerbell dies?

03.03.2026 07:24 πŸ‘ 107 πŸ” 35 πŸ’¬ 6 πŸ“Œ 3
Screenshot of the "Does that use a lot of energy?" online app

Screenshot of the "Does that use a lot of energy?" online app

Hannah Ritchie has built a fun little tool where you can compare energy usage of various products and activities.

This is super helpful imho, because it's so hard to develop intuitions even just about the scales involved here.

hannahritchie.substack.com/p/does-that-...

03.03.2026 09:27 πŸ‘ 153 πŸ” 66 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 5

Assume proportional swing also much more likely with current Green strategy - appealing to formerly Labour safe seats in metropolitan areas

03.03.2026 11:20 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0