Have been researching inflation in times of overlapping emergencies the past years. This feels like 2022 on steroids.
Am visiting the LSE this week to share some work in progress on anti-fascist economics, trying to make sense of this moment as it is unfolding.
sticerd.lse.ac.uk/_new/events/...
Buffer stocks in action: Oil prices fell back to below $100 after G7 finance ministers said the group “stands ready” to release petroleum from emergency reserves.
Fossil fuels are by far the most systemically significant price, it's not even close. We just saw the largest single day price jump in oil. It's the responsibility of governments to contain this price jump and not let another round of sellers' inflation take hold.
academic.oup.com/icc/article/...
The best way to end the affordability fallout from this war is to end the war.
We're in uncharted territory- if WTI crude holds these gains tomorrow- the current rise of 29.9% or $27.16/bbl would be its largest single day price jump- in both percent and amount- ever. Ever. EVER.
A double whammy for MAGAs.
Many voted for Trump based on two promises:
- no more foreign wars
- I'll bring down prices
He's reneged on both, spectacularly.
Who stands to benefit from War supply disruption?
"Gas producers, including in the US, the world’s largest LNG exporter, will probably benefit from the disruption to Qatari production as international demand for LNG pushes up prices."
www.ft.com/content/78fb...
bsky.app/profile/isab...
Los resultados hablan por sí mismos.
▶️ El 50% de estos beneficios récord fueron al 1 % más rico.
▶️ El 84%, al 10% más rico.
▶️ Menos de un 1%, al 10% más pobre.
El 0,1% más rico —apenas 131.000 hogares— recibió 26 veces más que la mitad de todos los estadounidenses.
Y mientras los más pobres pagan la cuenta, ¿qué ocurre del otro lado? ¿A dónde van los beneficios que generan las grandes petroleras?
Esta cuestión la aborda @isabellamweber.bsky.social en un nuevo estudio.
Price shocks in essentials must be buffered before they ripple through the economy and rip apart our societies. Have governments learned their lesson or will they let the fossil fuel price shock unleash another round of windfall profits and inflation?
Link: www.nytimes.com/2024/11/12/o...
The war on Iran is causing gas and oil price explosions.
Our research shows: Fossil fuel prices are the most important prices for inflation and inequality. Energy price shocks are redistribution shocks. The poorer you are, the larger the share of income you spend on essentials.
Who profits from an energy crisis in the wake of the war on Iran?
The 1%.
Thanks @nytimes.com @hclairebrown.bsky.social for covering our research.
Link to coverage: www.nytimes.com/2026/03/03/c...
Link to our article:www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Sellers' inflation coming to prices at the pump?
1/3: Here's what wild about gas prices right now. The past two days have seen the largest increase in gas prices ($0.22/gallon) since 2005, making it one of the fastest increases ever. What's suprising about this is not only the magnitude, but the speed of the passthrough.
Emergency insurance measures like the European crisis gas price cap were removed just when Trump came back to power. Apparently, the assumption was we were back in stable times.
The European gas price cap should be immediately reinstated and expanded to the oil market.
Text excerpt from NYT article linked in second skeet saying: “Most of the profits are flowing to the very affluent Americans, who are not subject to this cost-of-living crisis anyway because they’re so rich. They’re getting richer, and everyone else is dealing with inflation,” said Gregor Semieniuk, associate professor of University of Massachusetts Amherst who led the study. The United Kingdom responded to fossil fuel companies’ bumper year by adding a windfall tax designed to capture some of the excess profits and use the money to ease the burden on households facing higher bills. Semieniuk’s team calculated what would have happened if the U.S. government redistributed the portion of the fossil fuel industry’s 2022 profits that exceeded its 2021 returns. They found that the move would send $1,715 to every American household, which, they argued, could have helped ease the burden of inflation on lower-income households.
![Text excerpt from the FT article in the second skeet saying:
Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. Copying articles to share with others is a breach of FT.com T&Cs and Copyright Policy. Email licensing@ft.com to buy additional rights. Subscribers may share up to 10 or 20 articles per month using the gift article service. More information can be found at https://help.ft.com/faq/gifting-and-sharing-an-article/what-is-a-gift-article/.
https://www.ft.com/content/43fe2f44-d3ea-45c9-a641-e6f0e68949af?accessToken=zwAAAZy4l4RPkc9D_i9E0-pFydOmQebw5olJrw.MEUCIH4nsXTramXEOh6tWM6n9rrMqI0FnMfHQsz7tU0HufXAAiEAx8x5MmOYujURIqdhdxGDYHysYSEB2eVuSpM9n1iDuhA&segmentId=e95a9ae7-622c-6235-5f87-51e412b47e97&shareType=enterprise&shareId=a96149bb-d68a-4bc5-b023-2174a60fd9c5
Research on the oil and gas crisis sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 showed that the gains of the boon on energy producers were not equally shared.
The wealthiest 1 per cent of the US population eventually received more than 50 per cent of energy companies’ windfall from that particular surge in prices, according to a paper published in September 2025.
“If anything [the US has] become a more powerful exporter and producer of fossil fuels since 2022. And of course, their oil majors are active globally. So I think [US shareholders] are poised to take advantage even more [now],” said Gregor Semieniuk, a professor at the University of Massachusetts who was one of the authors of the research. “Wealth distributions don’t change overnight.”](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:zzkt72yllokx7rstuph6rlrw/bafkreigrlauo2i24owltmckxgpdt4gyzzwwu6hvotpslz57hqdbodogxba)
Text excerpt from the FT article in the second skeet saying: Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. Copying articles to share with others is a breach of FT.com T&Cs and Copyright Policy. Email licensing@ft.com to buy additional rights. Subscribers may share up to 10 or 20 articles per month using the gift article service. More information can be found at https://help.ft.com/faq/gifting-and-sharing-an-article/what-is-a-gift-article/. https://www.ft.com/content/43fe2f44-d3ea-45c9-a641-e6f0e68949af?accessToken=zwAAAZy4l4RPkc9D_i9E0-pFydOmQebw5olJrw.MEUCIH4nsXTramXEOh6tWM6n9rrMqI0FnMfHQsz7tU0HufXAAiEAx8x5MmOYujURIqdhdxGDYHysYSEB2eVuSpM9n1iDuhA&segmentId=e95a9ae7-622c-6235-5f87-51e412b47e97&shareType=enterprise&shareId=a96149bb-d68a-4bc5-b023-2174a60fd9c5 Research on the oil and gas crisis sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 showed that the gains of the boon on energy producers were not equally shared. The wealthiest 1 per cent of the US population eventually received more than 50 per cent of energy companies’ windfall from that particular surge in prices, according to a paper published in September 2025. “If anything [the US has] become a more powerful exporter and producer of fossil fuels since 2022. And of course, their oil majors are active globally. So I think [US shareholders] are poised to take advantage even more [now],” said Gregor Semieniuk, a professor at the University of Massachusetts who was one of the authors of the research. “Wealth distributions don’t change overnight.”
Who stands to profit as energy prices are rising due to the escalating war in the Middle East? NYT and FT quoting our research on the 2022 energy crisis! Spoiler: in the West it's mainly affluent shareholders.
High time to dust off the discussions on excess profit taxes & strategic price controls.
Great to see extensive NYT & FT coverage of our paper on the fossil-fuel profit bonanza during the previous war-induced oil & gas price spike. Links in Gregor’s thread. 👇
In contrast to the West, China's political economy has long been grounded on emergency preparedness. Its massive public reserves insulated China from global price shocks in 2022 and will again be a crucial buffer now.
Link: triviumchina.com/2026/03/03/s...
Fossil fuel stocks are exploding in response to the war on Iran.
Who stands to benefit? The richest of the rich.
Who stands to lose? All of us who have to pay higher prices for energy and a new round of sellers' inflation.
Here we go again and our paper with @gregorsemieniuk.bsky.social shows likely result - fat profits for the rich and increasing #inequality
Did the petrostate’s trigger-happy oligarchy read our paper and conclude “Oil price shocks are good and easy to engineer”? We’ll never know. But we know where the profits go. 👇
bsky.app/profile/greg...
The war on Iran likely brings a new oil price shock and windfall profits.
So, who stands to win?
Our research shows: Last time around (2022), the US reaped the largest fossil fuel profits of any country ($377bn). 50% went to the top 1%, only 1% to the bottom 50%. A🧵
Imperial war: wealth for the plutocrats, death for the people
From @isabellamweber.bsky.social on the hellsite
Wo soll eigentlich die Nachfrage herkommen wenn Deutschland spart und die Exportmärkte wegbrechen?
Join us for this talk that will examine the financial interests opposing decarbonization with @gregorsemieniuk.bsky.social
📅 3 March, 6.30pm
📍In-person and online
Register at: www.lse.ac.uk/european-ins...
We’re very lucky to have @gregorsemieniuk.bsky.social give a public lecture on
“Fossil fuels profits and the low-carbon transition: who stands to lose?”
Tuesday, March 3 at 6.30pm. Hosted by @lse-ei.bsky.social. Registration via the linked page. Pls share!
www.lse.ac.uk/european-ins...
Many thanks to the European Institute at the LSE for inviting me to give a public lecture about stranded assets, who owns them and implications for the low-carbon energy transition!
Next Tuesday at 6:30pm London time, at the European Institute at the LSE.
Event coordinates in the link below 👇
Now that tariffs are officially illegal, will corporations bring prices back down or keep them once more where they are despite falling costs? That's the affordability question of the moment.
So happy to see this!
