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Jon B. Wolfsthal

@jonatomic

US Nuclear Policy Fellow - Pax Sapiens, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists (doomsday clock setter), CNAS Sr. Fellow, former National Security Council - Sr. Director, Pope of Chili Town. No #manels, Yankees/Gunners.

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15.11.2024
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Latest posts by Jon B. Wolfsthal @jonatomic

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PAX sapiens is hiring for two positions:
- Program Manager for our Joint Action on Drug Elimination (JADE) Initiative
- Vice President for our U.S.–China program

Learn more about joining PAX: paxsapiens.org/career/

10.03.2026 19:08 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Pete Hegseth Blew Billions on Fruit Basket Stands, Chairs, and Crab The Defense Department went on a $93 billion spending spree in 2025.

Lethality
newrepublic.com/post/207555/...

10.03.2026 18:00 πŸ‘ 18 πŸ” 4 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 1

There are no words

10.03.2026 16:29 πŸ‘ 16 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 0

I endorse this tweet

10.03.2026 15:59 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
A photograph of the cover of the March 10, 1947, issue of Newsweek ("The Magazine of News Significance"), featuring a large color photograph of Einstein sitting in a striped upholstered armchair in his office in front of a bookshelf and a desk piled with books while holding a pipe in his left hand while gesturing with his right, a piece of paper resting on his lap, with the caption, β€œEinstein: Godfather of the Atomic Age.”

A photograph of the cover of the March 10, 1947, issue of Newsweek ("The Magazine of News Significance"), featuring a large color photograph of Einstein sitting in a striped upholstered armchair in his office in front of a bookshelf and a desk piled with books while holding a pipe in his left hand while gesturing with his right, a piece of paper resting on his lap, with the caption, β€œEinstein: Godfather of the Atomic Age.”

A photograph of the first two pages of the Einstein cover story in Newsweek, featuring four small black and white photographs of Einstein at various stages in his life. The quote appears in the second full paragraph of the third column on the first page:

β€œLast week, in the booklined study of his Princeton home, Einstein discussed with NEWSWEEK the ominous prospect [of atomic bombs destroying civilization] and the question of what to do about it. Asked whether he would have written that letter to Roosevelt if he could have foreseen the results, he declared:

'Had I known that the Germans would not succeed in developing an atomic bomb, I would have done nothing for the bomb.'

The progress of science, he conceded, would have released atomic energy sooner or later without his intervention, but 'our situation would have been much better if the emergency had not come about so quickly.'”

A photograph of the first two pages of the Einstein cover story in Newsweek, featuring four small black and white photographs of Einstein at various stages in his life. The quote appears in the second full paragraph of the third column on the first page: β€œLast week, in the booklined study of his Princeton home, Einstein discussed with NEWSWEEK the ominous prospect [of atomic bombs destroying civilization] and the question of what to do about it. Asked whether he would have written that letter to Roosevelt if he could have foreseen the results, he declared: 'Had I known that the Germans would not succeed in developing an atomic bomb, I would have done nothing for the bomb.' The progress of science, he conceded, would have released atomic energy sooner or later without his intervention, but 'our situation would have been much better if the emergency had not come about so quickly.'”

In the edition of Newsweek dated today in 1947, Albert Einstein said, β€œHad I known that the Germans would not succeed in developing an atomic bomb, I would have done nothing for the bomb.” Einstein never actually worked on the atomic bomb, only alerting President Roosevelt to its potential in 1939.

10.03.2026 14:32 πŸ‘ 28 πŸ” 4 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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I wish I could say I was surprised

www.axios.com/2026/03/10/u...

10.03.2026 13:22 πŸ‘ 5017 πŸ” 1663 πŸ’¬ 221 πŸ“Œ 80
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Nuclear experts undercut White House claims about Iran reactor at heart of case for war The Trump administration sent negotiators without nuclear expertise to lead talks on Iran’s enrichment program. Now, its public case for war centers on a facility that experts say cannot do what offic...

This is a technical story with stunning strategic implications. It is quite possible the US launched a massive war because Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff lacked the technical expertise to even understand what the Iranians were offering in negotiations. Absolute idiocy.
www.ms.now/news/trump-i...

10.03.2026 13:20 πŸ‘ 405 πŸ” 211 πŸ’¬ 21 πŸ“Œ 41

They could just raid and blow up the canisters.

10.03.2026 12:24 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Nuclear policy by vibes

10.03.2026 12:23 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Trump Antisemitism Inquiry Demanding List of Jews at Penn Heads to Court

Because nothing says let’s fight antisemitism like β€œgive me a list of all the Jews.”

β€œWe know very well the history of governments assembling lists of Jews does not end well.”

www.nytimes.com/2026/03/10/u...

10.03.2026 11:22 πŸ‘ 13 πŸ” 4 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0

Insane.

09.03.2026 23:49 πŸ‘ 16 πŸ” 11 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Thoughts @mattkorda.bsky.social @nukestrat.bsky.social ?

09.03.2026 23:49 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Not good.

09.03.2026 23:45 πŸ‘ 11 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
The state of nuclear risk in this year's Doomsday Clock discussion
The state of nuclear risk in this year's Doomsday Clock discussion Bulletin Science and Security Board member Jon B. Wolfsthal discusses the nuclear weapons issues that factored into the 2026 Doomsday Clock decision. Wolfsthal is currently the US nuclear weapon…

Bulletin Science and Security Board member Jon B. Wolfsthal @jonatomic.bsky.social discusses the nuclear weapons issues that factored into the 2026 Doomsday Clock decision. ⬇️

09.03.2026 19:02 πŸ‘ 8 πŸ” 9 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Anthropic sues Pentagon over being labeled a national security risk The move comes after President Trump ordered agencies to stop using Anthropic’s AI, amid a bitter feud over how its chatbot Claude might be used in war.

Breaking news: Anthropic sued the Trump administration, calling on a federal judge to strike down a government order forbidding military contractors from partnering with the AI company on the grounds that it poses a risk to national security.

09.03.2026 16:30 πŸ‘ 94 πŸ” 27 πŸ’¬ 5 πŸ“Œ 2
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BREAKING: @democracydefendersfund.org filed a FOIA demanding DOJ's legal basis for Trump's unilateral Iran strikes

6+ contradictory reasons β€” regime change, nukes, future threats, terrorists, the Iranian Navy, IEDs

None clear the bar & Congress never voted

We the people deserve the truth

09.03.2026 16:52 πŸ‘ 488 πŸ” 158 πŸ’¬ 10 πŸ“Œ 6

Russia is a petro state. Higher oil and gas prices is a major boon for Putin.

09.03.2026 15:50 πŸ‘ 7 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
Proud Boys leader Enrique Tarrio meets with Secretary Rubio

Proud Boys leader Enrique Tarrio meets with Secretary Rubio

Enrique Tarrio and other Proud Boys were convicted of seditious conspiracy. Trump pardoned them.

Tarrio and his men planned the storming of the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021. Tarrio even claimed credit for it, messaging others: β€œMake no mistake…We did this…”

Now he’s meeting with Sec. Rubio.

08.03.2026 22:00 πŸ‘ 2223 πŸ” 1073 πŸ’¬ 140 πŸ“Œ 90
The state of nuclear risk in this year's Doomsday Clock discussion
The state of nuclear risk in this year's Doomsday Clock discussion YouTube video by Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

The state of the world should reminds us of how close to midnight we find ourselves.

The Doomsday Clock now stands at 85 second to midnight.

@thebulletin.org

youtu.be/8Sq1ePz6JxY

09.03.2026 14:19 πŸ‘ 5 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Excited to work with you Saheeba @paxsapiens.bsky.social

09.03.2026 12:52 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

This.

09.03.2026 11:54 πŸ‘ 282 πŸ” 66 πŸ’¬ 4 πŸ“Œ 0

Exciting things are happening.

09.03.2026 11:37 πŸ‘ 4 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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PAX sapiens is pleased to announce that
@jonatomic.bsky.social will be our first U.S. nuclear weapon policy fellow.
Learn more about Jon Wolfsthal and the PAX sapiens' nuclear risk prevention work: paxsapiens.org/newsroom/wel...

09.03.2026 01:27 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 1

A republic, if you can keep it.

Just wait til you hear how easily he can launch a nuclear weapon.

08.03.2026 23:49 πŸ‘ 56 πŸ” 4 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0
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Mojtaba Khamenei, a son of Iran's late supreme leader, is chosen to replace his father A secretive figure within the Islamic Republic, Mojtaba Khamenei was not seen publicly in the days after an Israeli airstrike targeting the supreme leader’s offices killed his 86-year-old father atΒ th...

Once again, a bad yet predictable and predicted outcome; one that will bring a lot of continuity in the worst policies of the regime from human rights abuses to the nuclear and regional activities (that is, if he survives this war).

www.pbs.org/newshour/wor...

08.03.2026 23:47 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 3 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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New video footage shows a US Tomahawk missile hitting an IRGC facility in Minab, Iran, on Feb 28, showing for the first time that the US struck the area. The footage also shows smoke already rising from the vicinity of the girls’ school, where 175 people were reportedly killed, including children.

08.03.2026 17:20 πŸ‘ 3234 πŸ” 1683 πŸ’¬ 89 πŸ“Œ 188
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Video Shows US Tomahawk Missile Strike Next to Girls’ School in Iran - bellingcat New video footage shows a US Tomahawk missile hitting an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) facility in Minab, Iran, on Feb 28, showing for the first time that the US struck the area. The footag...

Read our analysis of the video showing a US Tomahawk missile strike next to Girls’ School in Iran on February 28 here: www.bellingcat.com/news/2026/03...

08.03.2026 19:14 πŸ‘ 1131 πŸ” 500 πŸ’¬ 15 πŸ“Œ 58
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That looks like a TLAM and that is almost certainly the IRGC compound in Minab, looking north-ish across Imam Khomeini Blvd./Route 91.

08.03.2026 19:46 πŸ‘ 43 πŸ” 5 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Thanks Rob. No question any such mission would be high risk. But given the stakes, planning and thinking about it critical. One more consequence of this ill-conceived decision to attack.

08.03.2026 19:45 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Which is why I continue to think if we go it, they blow it all up instead of trying to ship it out.

08.03.2026 16:36 πŸ‘ 6 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0