I finally got around to formalizing my Kelly betting-based method of evaluating time-updating probabilistic forecasts (e.g. in-game win probability, election models, etc.) in a paper.
It is now up on arXiv.
1/
In the NFL, the fat lady sings the latest
A fun post comparing win probability models by pct of time into a game
operations.nfl.com/gameday/anal...
Open role with our Football/Media Data & Analytics teams at the NFL - please reach out if this seems like a good fit
The 2026 Big Data Bowl #BigDataBowl is live!
Participants can sign up for two competitions:
- leaderboard
- traditional analytics competition
This year's task: predict/understand player movement when the ball is in the air
Big data bowl is up!! Two types of competitions this year:
The prediction track is more of your classic Kaggle prediction competition. Similar to the March madness Kaggle comp, NFL will use the actual game data from this season and the best prediction wins
www.kaggle.com/c/nfl-big-da...
"May be required to lift heavy objects"!!!
Need to get @statsbylopez.bsky.social to restart the “nerds with trophies” thread
I have a jar with 2700 pennies waiting in Indy
You seem crestfallen
Pls re run
Today #BigDataBowl
Details on the 2025 Big Data Bowl #BigDataBowl
Cooper DeJean with some outstanding awareness to fall back into the throw and get the interception.
DeJean also hit a max speed of 21.31 MPH on this play. The fastest by a defensive player as a ball carrier this season (including playoffs), per NextGenStats.
👋
Additionally, we are excited to announce that our 2025 Big Data Bowl keynote speaker is Dr. Eric Tulsky, General Manager of the Carolina Hurricanes
Regardless of the announcement - congrats to everyone that made a submission! Just getting something out there is an achievement and something to point to in your #sportsanalytics #datascience portfolio #BigDataBowl
Congratulations to the Finalists, Semi-Finalists, and Honorable Mention finishers in the 2025 Big Data Bowl #BigDataBowl
2025 Big Data Bowl finalists will be announced tomorrow, Weds 1/29, at 12 noon EST #BigDataBowl
Middle of next week!
Enjoyable time with Connor and Grant working through this #BigDataBowl. We attempted to bite off quite a bit -- is it possible to create an overall metric for predictability of play outcome given pre-snap information?
Quick hit: more first downs = more unpredictable
Ah, messed up the hashtag #bigdatabowl
We are likewise hard at work on your parking reimbursement
Big Data Bowl submissions are due tomorrow
🚨🚨
The deadline is 11:59 PM UTC, which is 6:59 PM EST
🚨🚨
#BigDataBowl
A list of literally any other conf or community that would be a better use of your time than ssac:
There are 70 throws of 50+ air yards in the NGS database.
This throw was in the air for 2.47 seconds. That is the fastest 50+ yard throw we've seen.
Excited to share my #BigDataBowl submission this year, joint work with the great Ron Yurko: Down, set, hut! Explaining variability in snap timing on plays with motion www.kaggle.com/code/tindata...
WEEK 12 #NFL Playoff Leverage
Here you can see how the playoff probability of each team changes depending on whether they win or lose the next game.
Niners and Seahawks better win this week.
#rstats | #nflverse
