Mauro Gilli

Don't forget that some (pro-Russian charlatans) have been accusing Bellingcat of being a CIA-psyop.

Eh chi lo sa. La loro bussola è rotta…

As I argue, the longer the war drags on and the more launchers Iran loses, the more intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance and strike assets will be concentrated on each remaining launcher — making an already difficult task even harder.

The hunt for Iran’s ballistic missile crews Tehran’s missiles are key to its retaliation against Israel and the US. But launching them brings an immediate risk of death

Flattered to be included in this detailed Financial Times article on the cat-and-mouse game between Israeli/US interdiction assets and Iranian ballistic-missile launchers.

www.ft.com/content/b2b3...

Data really is the new ammo As Europe aims for defence sovereignty, access to US data remains a thorny topic.

With Andrea Gilli and Niccolò Petrelli, we discussed this and other problems in an article for Binding Hook last year: bindinghook.com/data-really-...

The problem with the F-35 (or, for that matter, with many modern weapon systems) is not necessarily only with updating the software but also with updating the library of enemy targets and signals, for which European countries do not have the means.

The Dutch Defence Minister suggested on a radio interview that European countries can “jailbreak” an F-35 in case the US blocked software updates:

“I'm going to say something I should never say, but I'll do it anyway. Just like your iPhone, you can jailbreak an F-35. I won't say more about it.”

Shadow tanker PEACE lacks safety management, insurance.

She is flying a false flag of Timor-Leste where Timor-Leste demands of other states to stop her.

She is lawless. Sanctioned by EU and UK. She is on her fifth delivery of Russian crude to India last 12m.

She is leaving Baltic Sea laden now.

Thanks Joanna! I didn't know this book. I will look for it!

For those keeping score, Bellingcat, The New York Times Visual Investigation Team, & Washington Post's Visual Forensic team have all published analysis showing the ICE shooter wasn't in the path of Renee Nicole Good’s vehicle when he shot her, contradicting statements by the President & his cronies

Evidence coming up. Some of these systems however were in hangars. I assume we will know more soon.

Thanks Frank. I didn’t know it.

Fascinating air defense neutralization thread:

Ok, I will finish it here. I hope it helps. Apologies for typos/bad syntax.

On top of all the information that the US has been able to retrieve thanks to Ukraine, whether because of the air defense assets that the Ukrainian military managed to take, or because of the electronic intelligence the US and the Ukrainian military has been able to collect.

RC-135 Accompanied By Fighters Off Venezuela Testing Maduro's Air Defenses: U.S. Official The flights are part of a massive U.S. military presence in the Caribbean aimed at putting maximum pressure on Venezuela's Maduro.

Of course, to accomplish these tasks effectively, a country needs to possess information on the enemy radar - specifically, on their waveform, modulation, etc. Well, here we know the US has been collecting these information for quite some time
www.twz.com/air/rc-135-a...

For example, by generating a large amount of background returns (noise jamming), which impedes the ability to see an incoming aircraft; or by deceiving the system through the generation of false returns (spoofing); or through other means.

Such signals, in turn, can interfere with the capacity of adversary radar to detect threats (i.e., to capture radar returns and distinguish them from the background) in multiple ways.

Instead of relying on a physical obstacle, jamming and spoofing accomplish their goal by emitting electromagnetic signals of a very specific type.

Whereas a tunnel or an elevator leads to an accidental loss of signal, jamming and spoofing are intentional means aimed at degrading the performance of an adversary’s system.

This occurs because a physical obstacle impedes the electromagnetic waves used for modern mobile communications from reaching the antenna of a smartphone. This example is helpful because radars also use electromagnetic waves, albeit at different frequencies and with different signal designs.

One way to think about it is to consider interferences that obstruct mobile communications, such as when we enter a tunnel or an elevator and our smartphones lose coverage and hence cannot make calls or receive messages.

This is why neutralizing enemy radars, and in particular any still active fire-control radars, is so important. And this is where electronic warfare comes into play.

Here a premise is needed. Radars are very effective for air defense because they allow long-range detection and ranging, they work day and night, (mostly) in all weather, they allow to discriminate between irrelevant objects and potential threats, and to identify the latter as such.

With regard to electronic attacks, this is once again something that has existed for very long time and it refers to the use of electromagnetic signals for degrading enemy radars.

You need to create a temporary "corridor" through which your aircraft (in this case: rotary-wing aircraft, or helicopters) could transit safely. More on this later.

Did The U.S. Use Kamikaze Drones To Strike Venezuela? An unmistakable banshee-like wail is heard before detonations in videos taken on the ground during Operation Absolute Resolve.

We know the US hit some targets in Venezuela with precision munitions, I haven't followed whether any of these was part of the air defense network, but I suspect at least some were. Important in this regard is that you don't need to strike the whole air defense network. www.twz.com/air/u-s-kami...

With regard to kinetic attacks, this is something that militaries have been doing since World War II: trying to either destroy enemy ground-based air defenses (radars, anti-air artillery, surface to air missile batteries, command and control centers, etc.).

I haven't read anything about other type of cyber attacks, but it would be surprising that the US hadn't also try to disable the air defense network itself - which the US has done since the 1999 war against Yugoslavia.

We don't know much about the cyber attacks, but again this is not a surprise, as the US allegedly used it for the first time in 1999 against Yugoslavia. Apparently, the US shut down electricity/power generation to degrade part of the Venezuelan air defense network.