L’enjeu crucial, ce n’est pas le plan de #Trump, ce sont les garanties de sécurité, l’alliance 🇪🇺🇺🇦. Seule une présence 🇪🇺 en 🇺🇦 peut dissuader 🇷🇺 d’attaquer à nouveau 🇺🇦; seule 🇺🇦 peut permettre à 🇪🇺 d’être réellement militairement autonome et crédible.
"Granting China or Russia parts of these spheres would not satisfy them—it would empower them to go for more. And wherever their boots tread, violence and repression will follow.” Michael Beckley
I was on a podcast for College of Europe entitled “Europe Wakes Up: What the ReArm Agenda means for the future of EU defence”. Thanks to Antonio for the questions!
open.spotify.com/episode/6DiJ... @collegeofeurope.bsky.social
What does the new SIPRI #ArmsTransfers data tell us about dependence on US imports, and what lies behind European procurement decisions?
Read the Q&A with SIPRI Researcher Katarina Djokic:
🔗 bit.ly/42gsPi0
It is crucial for 🇪🇺 not to hesitate when it comes to strengthening European defence.
That's why we are proposing the #ReArm Europe package & finalising the White Paper, that will give the EU guidance on how to ramp up production in 🇪🇺 & increase our defence readiness.
#PDSF2025
At the Paris Defence and Strategy Forum for intense discussions on the future of European defence
Hi all,
I sent out my latest Substack post this morning, covering Sweden's (almost) confirmed Taurus order and its implications for the European missile industry.
You can access the post via this link:
missilematters.substack.com/p/taurus-ne...
Short summary below.
1/6
Les 🇫🇷 divisés sur l'envoi de troupes en 🇺🇦.
👉Il ne s'agit pas seulement de dissuader une nouvelle agression 🇷🇺 en 🇺🇦, mais aussi de s'assurer que, le jour où NOUS serons attaqués, nous ayons à nos cotés l'un des peuples les plus courageux, et combatif du 🌍.
En parité de pouvoir d’achat, la Russie dépense désormais plus dans sa défense que tous les pays européens combinés. Et c’est sans compter sur la baisse d’efficacité liée à la multiplicité de pays (redondances, etc).
www.iiss.org/online-analy...
I’m pleased to be speaking at this ARES Group event on building European defence capabilities. A really great line-up of speakers!
www.eventbrite.fr/e/building-e...
EDA annual conference - we are tackling the topic of defence financing this afternoon #EUdefence
I am at the European Defence Agency annual conference on new horizons in EU defence. There is a clear sense of what needs to be done, but we need a real push to get Europeans over the line for financing, capabilities, etc. Where will the political courage and leadership come from?
EDA’s annual conference started today! Follow live stream here annualconference.eda.europa.eu #EUdefence
Another one, this time a long read co authored with former colleagues - based on scenarios if the US did not help Europe defend itself www.iiss.org/research-pap...
Another one on the cost of NATO for the US budget
www.iiss.org/sv/online-an...
With the start of Donald Trump’s second term, I feel it’s time to dig up some of my previous analyses… Here is one on the 2% target: www.iiss.org/sv/online-an...
😤🤬
❗️Event❗
Is Europe a player or a playground in the global power game? In an inaugural lecture for his ERC Research grant, Luis Simón will present the main theoretical & empirical aspects of the project. Join us on 12 February 2025!
Register🔸 csds.vub.be/event/europe...
The EU needs to rethink its spending priorities to boost defense budgets, NATO's new Secretary-General Mark Rutte told the European Parliament today.
On the 100 000 drones - is the number arbitrary? Sure, but which wouldn’t be?
What is more important in my view than buying drones now however (which risk to become obsolete fast) is to put in place drone production capabilities to manufacture large numbers when needed.
Screenshot of German article beginning. English: CSU wants 100,000 drones to combat threats from abroad The CDU/CSU wants to re-equip the Bundeswehr. At its conference in Seeon, the CSU calls for a drone army, more AI and European satellites. Potential partners remain skeptical.
Sure, I can criticise the exact numbers and whether “a drone army” really is the right approach, but overall, these proposals are going in the right direction.
“CSU wants 100,000 drones to combat threats from abroad”
www.handelsblatt.com/politik/deut...
The incident involving undersea cables in the Baltic Sea is the latest in a series of suspected attacks on critical infrastructure.
We commend the Finnish authorities for their swift action in boarding the suspected vessel.
My joint statement → europa.eu/!k6cCfB
(1/3)
EDA published its latest data on EU defence spending. Strong increase as could be expected. #EUdefence
eda.europa.eu/news-and-eve...
European arms producers respond to Ukraine war
Several European producers saw their arms revenues grow substantially, driven by demand linked to the war in 🇺🇦#Ukraine, particularly for ammunition, artillery and air defence and land systems.
Learn more in the interactive database: bit.ly/4g9LU9W
#SIPRI #ArmsIndustry #Top100
www.euronews.com/my-europe/20...
Chancellor Olaf Scholz is betting his refusal to provide Ukraine with Germany’s Taurus long-range missiles will help his chances in the coming election.
What is the worst-case scenario for Europe facing both a US disengagement from European security and a trade war? This is the not so hopeful article I publish today in "Le Grand Continent" 1/2
legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2024/11/1...
Tapping into Europe’s hidden trillions: will a Capital Markets Union meet the EU’s funding needs?
www.rte.ie/news/analysi...
“Allowing the Ukrainians to use the long-range missiles, known as the Army Tactical Missile Systems, or ATACMS, came in response to Russia’s surprise decision to bring North Korean troops into the fight, officials said.”
www.nytimes.com/2024/11/17/u...
Reading this paper which tries to estimate how much more it would cost Germany to NOT support Ukraine, versus the current support.
The authors estimate it’s 10 times the current support.
www.ifw-kiel.de/fileadmin/Da...
