The Chancellor has stated that her headroom has grown.
03.03.2026 12:58
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The Chancellor has stated that her headroom has grown.
Speech had surprisingly little on global context. Truth is Iran has the potential to put government cost of living plans completely off track. UK exposed to disruption to LNG supplies from Qatar. Impact of gas price moves so far if sustained would be over £500 increase in energy price cap in July.
Chancellor appears to promise further action on youth unemployment. Good. Why not crack on and announce it today?
Follow the Spring Forecast live with Ruth Curtice:
🚨Event tomorrow🚨
The Autumn Budget was barely three months ago, but the UK has experienced plenty of economic and political drama since.
Join us to discuss the outlook for both the UK and global economy, and what this might mean for the upcoming Spring Forecast.
Register➡️ buff.ly/oWC8ode
The conference livestream is back at 11:20am, discussing the value of paid and unpaid work, and with a keynote speech from Andy Burnham - tune in here: www.resolutionfoundation.org/events/unsun...
I’ve noticed a difference between when the 14-year-old was very little to when my 10-year-old was very little. Within four years, you could feel the slide.
NEW analysis 📢 Britain's poorer half is working harder and getting less in return.
Our new book reveals the people of Unsung Britain are more likely to be in work, caring for a loved one, or sick themselves but their incomes – and opportunities – remain stagnant 🧵⤵️ buff.ly/7WcqrbQ
Chart showing: Annual change in Real Household Disposable Income per household in various OBR forecasts
Families across Britain have experienced two decades of poor income growth, and the outlook for the rest of the 2020s isn't much better.
In fact, the OBR's projection for income growth for the rest of this decade is worse than any of its previous ones...
Today, take a look at the bigger picture - tune in from 9am online to the @resolutionfoundation.org Unsung Britain conference, highlighting the experiences of the poorer half of Britain in the last few decades, with brilliant speakers & policy experts: www.resolutionfoundation.org/events/unsun...
Look, I know there's a lot going on in the news right now. But the MPC decision today was actually quite interesting!
They were only one vote away from delivering a cut that wasn't on the cards at all, and they now think inflation will not just drop sharply this year but stay low.
Thread below ⤵️
Flyer for Unsung Britain Final Conference: A portrait of the country's poorer half Tuesday 10 February 2026 9:00 am - 1:30 pm Central Hall Westminster
Flyer for Unsung Britain Final Conference: A portrait of the country's poorer half Tuesday 10 February 2026 9:00 am - 1:30 pm We will hear keynote speeches from the Mayor of Greater Manchester Andy Burnham and Chief Executive of Tesco Ken Murphy.
Join us next week for a major conference launching our new book on lower income families in Britain and the challenges they face today.
As well as panel discussions on work and the cost of living, we will have keynote speeches from Andy Burnham and Ken Murphy.
Register now➡️ buff.ly/2tG8LsY
Recent analysis of the economic impact of Brexit is clear cut ➡️ it was bad.
The author breaks it down ⤵️
🚨Major conference🚨
We're publishing a new book – combining analysis and policy work with in-depth conversations to understand the needs of lower income families – and hosting a major conference to discuss, with keynote speeches from Andy Burnham and Ken Murphy.
Register now➡️ buff.ly/2tG8LsY
Keir Starmer claims that living standards will be turning a corner this year.
We discussed the likelihood of that here ⤵️ buff.ly/VorS4Kw
In the Budget last week, the Chancellor announced she would freeze personal tax thresholds for three more years.
What does this 'stealth tax' mean for workers?⤵️
The scrapping of the two-child limit is a much-needed change to turn the tide on child poverty.
It is also the most cost-effective way of lifting children out of poverty.
Are tax rises the result of 'out-of-control' welfare spending?
We've dug into the numbers to examine whether the scale of welfare spending has shifted, and how feasible it would be to cut it back significantly 👇
Not well understood that 6 in 10 families impacted by the two-child limit are in work, and that the vast majority have 3 or 4 children.
Here's everything you need to know about this morning's inflation data 🧵⤵️
At our recent event, Stephanie Flanders spoke about how the Government is doing better on the long-term stuff, than on the short-term.
Catch up here 👉 buff.ly/eC4gWG3
The Chancellor needs to achieve three things in the Autumn budget: 1. Take decisive steps to improve the public finances and increase the financial buffers against her fiscal rules. 2. Address cost of living pressures for families and support the Bank of England in lowering inflation. 3. In the interest of growth, make changes that improve the tax system overall.
Much depends on the Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts A significant economic deterioration would leave the Chancellor choosing whether to break the spirit or letter of her manifesto pledge not to raise Income Tax. A more benign economic outlook will make it far easier to avoid breaking it at all.
There’s more than one way to raise revenue on the main personal taxes: 1. Freezing personal tax thresholds for two more years from April 2028 could raise £7.5 billion (in 2029-30). 2. Switching 2p of employee National Insurance onto Income Tax could raise £6 billion. Reducing the Higher Rate Threshold for Income Tax and Upper Earnings Limit for employee/self-mployed National Insurance could raise £9 billion.
Has the Budget rumour mill gone too far? It is normal for economic forecasts and policies to change in the run up to the Budget. It is not normal for so much of that to be laid bare in public. Market moves off the back endless Budget rumours suggest a serious look should be taken at the approach to market-sensitive forecast information.
Has the Budget rumour-mill gone too far?
Excessive 'kite-flying' - leaking rumoured tax policies to test their reaction with the public - risks exacerbating market uncertainty.
poster on IOI Fund inaugural grantees
Exciting news! LA Referencia and UbuntuNet Alliance have been selected as the first grantees of the IOI Fund for Network Adoption, with each receiving up to $1.5M in funding to expand open infrastructure for research across 35+ countries. Learn more: investinopen.org/blog/empower...
I'm proud to have received the innovation prize at last night's @smartthinking.bsky.social awards – for my and my colleagues' work producing an alternative to Labour Force Survey stats www.resolutionfoundation.org/our-work/est...
Terrific new role helping to develop Ada's research practice:
It's likely that the Government will need to find around £25 billion in tax rises at this month's Budget.
Speaking this morning, our Chief Executive Ruth Curtice said the Chancellor faces important choices on who is affected by tax changes.
Found this piece about minimum wage catching up with entry level grad pay a bit odd.
www.ft.com/content/b436...
1. Re min wage reducing incentive to go to uni. Yes at the margin, but I struggle to believe this can be a big effect? Going to uni raises lifetime earnings, not just at age 25.
If they don't implement significant policy changes, this Government will preside over the sharpest increase in child poverty by any Labour Government in the last 60 years ⤵️
Read 'No half measures' 👉 buff.ly/qVc9CWs
New post out:
"The worst social policy ever"
Today we have a guest post from @ruthpatrick0.bsky.social on the abomination that is the two-child limit and why Labour need to scrap it ASAP.
Lots of data but also powerful testimony.
(Free to read)
open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/t...
Repealing the two-child limit in full is the most powerful policy lever the Government can pull to drive down child poverty rates.
Read 'No half measures' now ⤵️ buff.ly/qVc9CWs
Did you know that government levies have driven more than half of the rise in electricity bills in recent years?
Jonny Marshall explains a better way of doing things ⤵️
Read 'Splitting the bill' to find out how the Government can cut costs for three-in-four households ⤵️ buff.ly/sHhw6L1
