Joris Teer

China is playing a role in the military balance in Europe in several ways already, now also in the Balkans.

Middle East war: strategic consequences for the EU YouTube video by EU Institute for Security Studies

🔴 Live now!
Join us as we discuss the implications for the EU of the war in the Middle East ⤵️
www.youtube.com/live/wH9ykAe...

As uncertainty grows around the US role in European security, how should the EU work with NATO? Europe must both reinforce the partnership & continue to prepare for greater responsibility in defence, argues @gspataf95.bsky.social ➡️ ow.ly/YchS50Yskhc

Proud to take part in the EU Ambassadors Conference this week and contribute to key policy debates. Great exchanges with @sbeverts.bsky.social on navigating EU–China relations, and with @joristeer.bsky.social on strengthening economic security in times of conflict.

#China is often seen as an unstoppable economic power. But Beijing is also increasingly fragile. New Chaillot Paper by @aligarciaherrero.bsky.social & @ruehlig.bsky.social argues the EU has more leverage than it thinks - and should use it strategically ➡️ ow.ly/1p0650Yq7EC

😐

nos.nl/artikel/2603...

Stacked bar chart titled "US Foreign Military Sales" showing annual major arms sales (in $ billions) by region from 2017 to 2025. The y-axis ranges from 0 to 160 billion dollars. Each bar is divided by region: Europe (largest share in yellow), Indo-Pacific (light green), MENA (green), Americas (blue), Africa and Central Asia (smallest segments at the top). Europe and the Indo-Pacific account for the largest portions in most years. Source: Major Arms Sales (via FMS) Notification Tracker 2026

⚙️ In 2025, Europe remained a major buyer of US weapons, but purchases fell significantly from 2024, suggesting early signs of reduced reliance.

Individual EU countries, however, still top the rankings. Read more in @gspataf95.bsky.social's scrollytelling analysis: iss.europa.eu/publications...

Autonomy or Indispensability? Identifying the EU's Semiconductor Lodestar - CSDS The hyper-specialised division of labour underpinning the global semiconductor value chain has produced acute vulnerabilities. China increasingly weaponises supply chains against Europe, while Preside...

Good to see our CHIPDIPLO-paper discussed in @financialtimes.com by @martinsandbu.ft.com

Our 50 workshop experts coalesced around one European semiconductor vision: “European indispensability; Allied autonomy”

Read report📕🚨:
csds.vub.be/publication/...

And FT article: www.ft.com/content/b92f...

It is time for Europe to weaponise its chokepoints China and others have long been adept at using supply chains to their advantage — the EU should do the same

Europe has more cards to play than its leaders often realise. What’s needed is detailed mapping of the chokeholds we have. And above all a willingness to use them - as US, China and others do too.

Great piece citing critical thinking tank work on this incl @joristeer.bsky.social

IMF Warns China’s Economic Policies Are Causing Damage to Others The International Monetary Fund faulted China’s economic policies for causing waste at home and damage abroad and called for a reorientation by Beijing to embrace a model based on domestic consumer sp...

IMF faults China’s economic policies for causing waste at home and damage abroad and called for Beijing to embrace a model based on domestic consumer spending – Bloomberg: ‘IMF staff highlighted China’s large current-account surplus, which has featured “adverse spillovers to trading partners.”’

TNO: niet alle gasputten Groningen dichtmetselen, acuut tekort denkbaar De Nederlandse afhankelijkheid van gas uit het buitenland is vanwege dreiging in het Midden-Oosten en de onvoorspelbaarheid van de Verenigde Staten zo risicovol dat er er volgens deskundigen een 'stra...

Geheel eens. En belangrijk dat TNO / Rene Peters dit zeggen (voordat alle putten volgestort zijn met beton):

nos.nl/l/2602361

From production to coercion: how China turned critical minerals into a strategic weapon.

From @joristeer.bsky.social Brief of the risks posed by Trump’s ‘G2’ bargaining with an emboldened China: ow.ly/CC5G50XKcrz

My quote in @economist.com on rare earths:

'European firms have since had to give up trade secrets to China to get licences. “In 2025 China learned that it can disrupt Europe’s industries at little cost,” argues Joris Teer of the EU Institute for Security Studies, a think-tank'

@euiss.bsky.social

"Dangerous dependence":
Trump managed to turn full-scale de-risking from the US into the major topic of early 2026 in the German debate.

From production to coercion: how China developed its critical mineral weapon.

From "Tech war 2.0: The dangers of Trump's 'G2' bargaining with an emboldened China" by @joristeer.bsky.social: ow.ly/CC5G50XKcrz

China launches live-fire drills around Taiwan simulating blockade of major ports Taipei condemns exercise that Chinese army calls ‘a stern warning against “Taiwan independence” separatist forces and external interference forces’

Chinese armed forces launch live-fire drills around Taiwan simulating blockade of major ports – The Guardian: ‘The exercise, named Justice Mission 2025, was a “a stern warning against ‘Taiwan independence’ separatist forces and external interference forces”, said a spokesperson’

Exclusive: Nexperia's China unit switches to local firms for wafer supplies, document shows The Chinese unit of Netherlands-based Nexperia has locked in supplies of silicon wafers from local firms to cover its entire 2026 production for one type of power chip, a document showed, after the Du...

Nexperia’s China unit switches to local firms for wafer supplies, document shows – Reuters: ‘to cover its entire 2026 production for one type of power chip’
‘Nexperia told Reuters that it was not in communication with its Chinese subsidiary’

Tech war 2.0: The dangers of Trump's 'G2' bargaining with an emboldened China Beijing has reshaped the US-China tech war by weaponising critical minerals, forcing Washington to abandon non-negotiable controls in favour of G2-bargaining. Europe now faces growing dependence and e...

🚨📑 Final policy brief of a geopolitically depressing, but productive 2025: "Tech war 2.0: The dangers of Trump's 'G2' bargaining with an emboldened China"

Merry Christmas / Happy 2026! More polrecs to come in new year..

@euiss.bsky.social / @sbeverts.bsky.social

www.iss.europa.eu/publications...

Mijn eindejaarsinterview met Marcel de Boer van @fd.nl, afgenomen eind november. Over Pekings bouw van een industrieel fort, de gevaarlijke deindustrialisatie van Europa en hoe Japan en de VS veel sneller "de-risken"

Het interview: lnkd.in/eAez7whk

@euiss.bsky.social / @sbeverts.bsky.social

Europe’s future in semiconductors hinges on a key strategic choice: autonomy or indispensability? New CHIPDIPLO report by @joristeer.bsky.social, @riccardobosticco.bsky.social & @acalcara.bsky.social offers guidance on the EU’s path forward. Read more ⤵️ www.institutmontaigne.org/en/publicati...

The most fun paper I co-authored this year, with great @acalcara.bsky.social / Riccardo Bosticco

Big thanks to CHIPDIPLO-acolytes @clairelemoine.bsky.social, Nicolas Mason, @mtdtl.bsky.social of Montaigne; and @csds.bsky.social for running the "reality check" industry-thinktank-government workshop

By weaponising rare earths against almost all countries, Beijing forced Washington to pivot from ever tightening national security restrictions on the world’s high-tech exports to “G2” bargaining. Europe risks losing twice, warns @joristeer.bsky.social 🔗 ow.ly/CC5G50XKcrz

Russia-China Far Eastern gas route construction progressing, China ambassador to Russia tells RIA Construction is progressing on a planned Far Eastern route to supply Russian natural gas to China, Beijing’s ambassador to Moscow, Zhang Hanhui, told Russia’s RIA news agency in remarks published on W...

Russia-China Far Eastern gas route construction progressing, Chinese ambassador to Russia tells RIA – Reuters: ‘The Far Eastern route is designed to send gas from Russia’s Pacific coast to China via a new branch link connected to Russia’s Sakhalin–Khabarovsk–Vladivostok pipeline system.’

Exclusive: China massing military ships across region in show of maritime force, sources say China is deploying a large number of naval and coast guard vessels across East Asian waters, at one point more than 100, in the largest maritime show of force to date, according to four sources and in...

"One of the officials, who .. spoke on condition of anonymity .., said Beijing had begun dispatching a higher than usual number of ships to the region after November 14, when it summoned Japan's ambassador to protest Takaichi's comments on Taiwan." www.reuters.com/world/china/...

China is building a self-reliant fortress, dominating rare earths & critical inputs that Europe needs for its security. As we deindustrialise faster than we de-risk, the situation has become dangerous. @joristeer.bsky.social briefed the #INTA Committee on trade & strategic autonomy.

False sense of security: European complacency on rare earths is the wrong answer to the US-China trade truce Talk of a US–China 'trade truce' may lull Europe into a false sense of security. Beijing's export controls on rare earths and critical materials remain disruptive, unpredictable and coercive. Unless the EU accelerates de-risking, its industries and defence sector will stay dangerously exposed.

The promised pause in China’s export controls is no victory. "European policymakers should assume that China will continue to curtail critical material supply to European and partner industries", warns @joristeer.bsky.social. ow.ly/r7wJ50XyXtA

Talk of a US–China "trade truce" risks lulling Europe into complacency. Beijing’s export controls on rare earths remain disruptive, unpredictable & coercive. Without faster de-risking, EU industry and defence stay dangerously exposed, warns @joristeer.bsky.social. 🔗 ow.ly/r7wJ50XyXtA

Chinese regulations and competition are panicking European manufacturers Recent curbs on computer chips and rare earths are feeding broader fears about deindustrialisation

Can the EU counter China's rare-earth chokehold with new mines & processing plants?

The EU has identified projects but "we don't have the framework to ensure they're viable against state-sponsored Chinese competition," says @joristeer.bsky.social to @economist.com. www.economist.com/briefing/202...

Chinese regulations and competition are panicking European manufacturers Recent curbs on computer chips and rare earths are feeding broader fears about deindustrialisation

"The EU has done the analytical work to identify critical material projects", says Mr. Teer of EUISS. "But we do not have the (financial) framework to make sure those are viable against state-sponsored Chinese competition"

Good to speak to @economist.com

www.economist.com/briefing/202...

Europe Responds Ep. 7: Will the US-China rare earth ceasefire hold? Implications for Europe Europe’s health care system, rearmament, green and digital transitions, and overall industrial base depend on secure – and often indirect – access to critical raw materials dominated by China. Throug...

We'll be live soon!

Join @joristeer.bsky.social & @gspataf95.bsky.social at 13.45 CET to unpack the strategic, industrial & geopolitical implications of the rare earth ceasefire between the US and China, & what it means for Europe.

📺 Watch here: www.youtube.com/live/t2--42b...