Eitvydas Bajarūnas

“Lukashenko is totally dependent on Russia.” @ebajarunas.bsky.social
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/11/28/russia-new-weapon-hybrid-war-against-europe/

The Hybrid Threat Imperative: Deterring Russia Before it is Too Late Western resilience alone will not stop Russia's hybrid threats; allies should pair deterrence-by-denial with deterrence-by-punishment.

Belarus has targeted Lithuania with another barrage of balloons to disrupt its airspace. @ebajarunas.bsky.social explains that to counter the Kremlin's shadow warfare and hybrid tactics, "deterrence must be proactive and tailored to specific vulnerabilities."

The Hybrid Threat Imperative: Deterring Russia Before it is Too Late Western resilience alone will not stop Russia's hybrid threats; allies should pair deterrence-by-denial with deterrence-by-punishment.

Russia’s shadow warfare tries to exploit democratic openness, fracture alliances, and erode public trust in institutions. @ebajarunas.bsky.social explores how the West can formulate a coordinated deterrence strategy.

The Hybrid Threat Imperative: Deterring Russia Before it is Too Late Western resilience alone will not stop Russia's hybrid threats; allies should pair deterrence-by-denial with deterrence-by-punishment.

Read the full report by @ebajarunas.bsky.social to learn more about what makes an effective deterrence-by-denial and deterrence-by-punishment strategy.

Lithuania taking action to prevent smuggler balloons from Belarus - The World from PRX Weather balloons carrying boxes of smuggled cigarettes have been disrupting flights in Lithuania. The situation has escalated dramatically over the past week, and the government in Vilnius has announced plans to close Lithuania's border with Belarus. Th...

"[Smuggler balloons are] part of Russia's — and involving Belarus's — hybrid warfare campaign against both countries, Central Europe, and the rest of Europe." @ebajarunas.bsky.social

https://theworld.org/segments/2025/10/30/lithuania-taking-action-to-prevent-smuggler-balloons-from-belarus

Flight Risk: Baltics Scramble to Counter Hybrid Drone Threat Drone incursions have sparked growing concern across the Baltic States as Moscow and Minsk prepare for military exercises.

"Drone incursions have sparked growing concern across the Baltic States as Moscow and Minsk prepare for military exercises." @ebajarunas.bsky.social

A proposal to end Russia's war against Ukraine NATO should invoke Article 12 of the North Atlantic Treaty to amend the Treaty. Allow new members with a majority vote. Invite Ukraine to join.

Willing nations should send troops to fight with Ukraine against Russia, with or without NATO. @ebajarunas.bsky.social @cepa.org @anderseide.bsky.social @andrewramsaygray.bsky.social @germanambusa.bsky.social @avindman.bsky.social @acwlapsley.bsky.social
edsolomon.substack.com/p/a-proposal...

The Baltics Adapt to Trump The Baltic states have had the US as a steadfast ally since the end of Cold War but may now have to build regional defenses.

"The Baltic states have had the US as a steadfast ally since the end of Cold War but may now have to build regional defenses as Washington turns away." @ebajarunas.bsky.social

Ukraine Ceasefire Deal — What Does it Mean? CEPA Fellows explain the US-Ukraine agreement on a ceasefire. The Trump administration says, “the ball is in Moscow’s court.”

“If Beijing supports a ceasefire agreement, it may pressure Russia to comply.” @ebajarunas.bsky.social

Putin ramping up troops on border for new attack: Zelensky Russia is planning to strike in Ukraine's Sumy region, the Ukrainian president wrote on Saturday in an X post.

“A key factor may be China, Russia's main trading ally, which if it supports the US ceasefire proposal, may put pressure on Putin to comply.” @ebajarunas.bsky.social

Europe’s Vital Nordic-Baltic Shield There is much to do if Europe wants to deter war, and much of that will depend on the countries in the continent’s northeast.

The so-called [Nordic-Baltic 8] group also must play an active role in shaping the EU defense agenda, ensuring European tools complement, rather than replace, NATO efforts.” @ebajarunas.bsky.social

Choking Russia’s Shadow Fleet in the Baltic Efforts to shut down the shadow fleet have taken on greater urgency after attacks on NATO members’ critical infrastructure.

"Russia’s shadow fleet plays a crucial role for oil export earnings because of its central role in sanctions avoidance." @ebajarunas.bsky.social

Russia’s Hybrid Warfare Tactics Target the Baltics We are publishing this piece because Ambassador Eitvydas Bajarūnas has a wide range of governmental experiences that give him unique insight into modern political warfare. Among his many overseas post...

"Russia’s Hybrid Warfare Tactics Target the Baltics" by
@ebajarunas.bsky.social

Published in Jamestown Perspectives: jamestown.org/program/russ...

#JamestownFoundation #JamestownPerspectives

‘There we go again’ — For war-weary Europe, Trump-Putin call yet another signal to ‘wake up’ After a two-hour call between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, Russia reiterated its refusal for a full ceasefire in the war in Ukraine while the U.S. once again…

"Russia is prepared for a prolonged war and is currently not thinking about peace." @ebajarunas.bsky.social‬

Choking Russia’s Shadow Fleet in the Baltic Efforts to shut down the shadow fleet have taken on greater urgency after attacks on NATO members’ critical infrastructure.

"A more assertive policy is crucial to addressing the shadow fleet, particularly in the Baltic Sea, as the region cannot afford to delay." @ebajarunas.bsky.social

Choking Russia’s Shadow Fleet in the Baltic Efforts to shut down the shadow fleet have taken on greater urgency after attacks on NATO members’ critical infrastructure.

Choking Russia’s Shadow Fleet in the Baltic | "Efforts to shut down the shadow fleet have taken on greater urgency after attacks on NATO members’ critical infrastructure. Here’s what’s needed." @ebajarunas.bsky.social

I am honored to join CEPA’s New Initiative on Russia’s Shadow War and contribute my professional experience in countering and deterring Russia's #hybridthreats and other malign activities.

Countering Russia’s Shadow War

Today, CEPA is excited to launch a landmark, expert-driven initiative to combat Russian hybrid attacks against the transatlantic alliance.

To repel Russian attacks, the West must take action that is “sufficiently devastating to make Russian eyes water and deter future misbehavior.” @ebajarunas.bsky.social

Lithuanian PM says he feels ‘privilege and honour’ during first Kyiv visit Lithuanian Prime Minister Gintautas Paluckas is paying his first visit to Ukraine on Friday and says he feels “privilege...

Lithuanian newly appointed Prime Minister Gintaras Paluckas is paying his first visit to Ukraine today and says he feels “privilege and honour”. The Prime Minister is accompanied by almost the entire cabinet.

www.lrt.lt/en/news-in-e...

“We need deterrence by punishment,” @ebajarunas.bsky.social discusses the Western response to Russian hybrid warfare. “We are at war, and the first thing we need is to recognize we are at war.”

Baltic Power Shows Way on Hybrid Threats The Baltic states, with a long history of Russian interference, offer a new model for tackling hybrid threats.

"The Baltic states, with a long history of Russian interference, offer a model for tackling hybrid threats." @ebajarunas.bsky.social

Baltic Power Shows Way on Hybrid Threats The Baltic states, with a long history of Russian interference, offer a new model for tackling hybrid threats.

"The Baltic states, with a long history of Russian interference, offer a model for tackling hybrid threats." @ebajarunas.bsky.social

Today, Kęstutis Budrys assumes office as the Foreign Minister of #Lithuania. "We will actively work with allies and partners to achieve stability and democracy in Europe and its neighbourhood. Lithuania's voice in the world will remain loud and clear," states FM Budrys.

Someone Else’s Fault — Kremlin Propagandists Explain Syrian Collapse As Syria’s fleeing dictator, Bashar al-Assad, arrived in Moscow, the state’s mouthpieces battled to shield Putin from any blame.

Someone Else’s Fault — Kremlin Propagandists Explain Syrian Collapse | "As Syria’s fleeing dictator arrived in Moscow, the state’s mouthpieces battled to shield Putin from any blame." @juliadavisnews.bsky.social

Baltic Power Shows Way on Hybrid Threats The Baltic states, with a long history of Russian interference, offer a new model for tackling hybrid threats.

Baltic Power Shows Way on Hybrid Threats | "The Baltic states, with a long history of Russian interference, offer a model for tackling hybrid threats." Eitvydas Bajarūnas

Romanian court cancels presidential election amid Russian influence fears Constitutional court throws Romanian politics into turmoil, 2 days before runoff vote was due to take place.

Democracy must and can defend itself, especially against external influences: Romanian court cancels presidential election amid Russian influence fears.

#hybdirthreats

www.politico.eu/article/roma...

NATO to revise strategy on how to tackle hybrid warfare – DW – 12/05/2024 The military alliance is looking for more ways to protect members' assets from sabotage by actors such as Russia and China. There is even discussion on whether hybrid warfare could trigger Article 5…

“At the last NATO summit in July 2024, allied leaders reaffirmed that if hybrid operations against member states escalate to the level of an armed attack, it could potentially prompt the invocation of Article 5.” Eitvydas Bajarūnas

FBI, together with international partners, disrupted Kremlin's AI bot farm spreading anti-Ukraine sentiments.

Reminder to everyone: there is no need to debate with the crypto/"US patriot" accounts on X, unless you're interested in arguing with AI.

Fortunately, they're not yet here.

NATO to revise strategy on how to tackle hybrid warfare – DW – 12/05/2024 The military alliance is looking for more ways to protect members' assets from sabotage by actors like Russia and China. There is even discussion on whether hybrid warfare could trigger Article 5 of t...

#DeutscheWelle on decision of #NATO foreign ministers to look for more ways to protect members' assets from sabotage by 🇷🇺 and 🇨🇳 and on whether hybrid warfare could trigger Article 5 of the NATO treaty. Sharing my thoughts on the subject.

@cepa.bsky.social

amp.dw.com/en/nato-to-r...