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Çağatay Cebe

@cagataycebe

Interested in Lebanon, Jihadi Movements and Security Affairs.

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Latest posts by Çağatay Cebe @cagataycebe

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Sahel’de yakıt krizi güvenlik ve istikrarı tehdit ediyor Uzmanlar Mali, Burkina Faso ve Nijer'de derinleşen ve Batı Afrika’nın diğer ülkelerine sıçrama riski bulunan yakıt krizinin halkın günlük yaşamını felç ettiğini, güvenlik ve siyasi istikrar üzerinde c...

Fuel crisis threatens security and stability in the Sahel

A good round-up on the current security situation in the Sahel based on interviews with
@simnasr.bsky.social @cagataycebe.bsky.social and myself (by @anadoluajansicom.bsky.social)

www.aa.com.tr/tr/dunya/sah...

03.12.2025 17:27 👍 7 🔁 3 💬 0 📌 0
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A Short Assessment of ISIS Turkish Media Service A look at how security pressure in Turkey and the Afghanistan–Pakistan region weakened ISIS’s Turkish-language media presence.

A look at how security pressure in Turkey and the Afghanistan–Pakistan region weakened ISIS’ Turkish-language media presence.

24.11.2025 07:26 👍 2 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 1
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The detentions that deepened the Sufi–Salafi tension on social media in Turkey How the arrest of two Salafi figures after the 10 November debate reshaped discussions between religious communities.

The arrest of Halis Bayancuk, one of Turkey's well-known and rising religious figures, sparked a debate on social media between Sufis and Salafis in recent days.

22.11.2025 17:14 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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An interesting statement from al Qaeda in West Africa. In their latest statement, JNIM calls on the international and local actors to investigate and tries to gain the support from locals in Mali and the rest of the Sahel.

JNIM in Mali issued a statement today calling on international organizations, businesspeople, student groups, and the working class. It created a narrative encompassing the people of the coastal region.

20.11.2025 17:55 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
Post image

I'll publish some of my articles in English and Turkish on Substack.

To subscribe: fromcagataycebe.substack.com/welcome

17.11.2025 12:00 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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The View of Syrian Arab Tribes on the SDF How Arab tribes in Syria see the SDF and why tensions continue in the region

I spoke with sheikhs from the al-Baggara, al-Ugeidat/Aqidat, and Masahadah tribes in eastern Syria. They shared their views on the SDF.

16.11.2025 15:51 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Syria officials: US strike on jihadi commander a message to rebel holdouts A US strike that killed a prominent rebel in Syria in early October aimed to send a message to militants who refuse to join the new Syrian national army, Syrian sources told Al-Monitor.

During Trump and Sharaa's meeting, Syria announced its decision to join the anti-ISIS coalition politically, rather than militarily.

Two weeks ago, a Syrian official told me that Damascus had requested that the U.S. halt ground operations, though they could accept sharing intelligence against ISIS

11.11.2025 07:46 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Trump’s ‘guns-a-blazing’ threat to Nigeria shocked key players, aides President Trump’s threat to go “guns-a-blazing” into Nigeria concerned U.S. military officials in Africa and surprised even those who had been pushing the issue.

"AFRICOM officials were concerned that the U.S. lacked the intelligence and assets to support expanding operations to Nigeria, one of the people familiar said."

09.11.2025 17:44 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Iraq’s Leader Seeks an Improbable Prize: Independence From the U.S. and Iran Mohammed Shia al-Sudani is running for re-election Tuesday after managing to keep his country out of the region’s recent conflicts.

Iran, Sudani said, is “a neighboring country with which we have friendly ties. But certainly, this friendship will not be at the expense of our national decisions and the interests of Iraq and Iraqis.”

08.11.2025 04:36 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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How Abu Dhabi built an axis of secessionists across the region From North Africa to the Gulf, the UAE has aggressively expanded its counter-revolutionary strategy in the wake of the Arab Spring

Like Iran’s “axis of resistance” - a network of non-state actors loosely tied together under an Islamic revolutionary banner - the UAE’s “axis of secessionists” comprises a network of non-state actors tied together under a counterrevolutionary banner.

04.11.2025 18:23 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Chinese ship spies on Australia, Philippines and the US A sophisticated Chinese spy ship monitors Australian, Philippines, United States and New Zealand naval forces as they conduct another round of joint exercises in the South China Sea.

A sophisticated Chinese spy ship monitored Australian, Philippines, United States and New Zealand naval forces as they conducted joint exercises in the South China Sea last week.

www.abc.net.au/news/2025-11...

04.11.2025 18:22 👍 1 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0
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Climate change is here to stay. So are armed groups. Ahead of COP30, here’s why that matters… A Q&A unpacking the complex impacts of climate change on violent crises, and the increasingly important role of non-state actors.

"More than 200 million people are estimated to live in territories controlled by non-state armed groups."

04.11.2025 18:03 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Exclusive | How U.A.E. Arms Bolstered a Sudanese Militia Accused of Genocide Reports by U.S. intelligence agencies show an increase in the flow of materiel from the U.A.E. to the rebel Rapid Support Forces since the spring, according to U.S. officials.

Defense Intelligence Agency and the State Department’s intelligence bureau, show an increase in the flow of material from the U.A.E. to the rebel RSF since the spring.

04.11.2025 17:09 👍 2 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Trump Threatens Military Action in Nigeria Over Protections for Christians

President Trump on Saturday threatened Nigeria with potential military action and said the United States might cut off aid, accusing the West African country’s government of failing to protect Christians.

02.11.2025 05:26 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Syria officials: US strike on jihadi commander a message to rebel holdouts A US strike that killed a prominent rebel in Syria in early October aimed to send a message to militants who refuse to join the new Syrian national army, Syrian sources told Al-Monitor.

My latest:

Sources ranging from former Hurras ad-Deen/al-Qaeda members to official army personnel emphasize that CENTCOM's use of the term "al-Qaeda" is merely a pretext, and that the real aim is to push jihadi groups not yet in the army's ranks to join.

27.10.2025 09:05 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Asia, Caught in the Middle, Faces Trump and Xi’s Tug of War

Xi, who wants Trump to drop his tariffs on Chinese goods, ease access to U.S. technology like semiconductors and loosen restrictions on Chinese investments in the US, analysts said. The icing on the cake for Xi would be if Trump signaled he was open to reducing Washington’s support for Taiwan.

26.10.2025 05:56 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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US, NATO hone Arctic skills across High Northern latitudes Jointly and separately, US and NATO forces conducted operations and exercises throughout the Arctic in recent weeks to counter increasing competition in the higher...

Jointly and separately, US and NATO forces conducted operations and exercises throughout the Arctic in recent weeks to counter increasing competition in the higher latitudes, officials from the forces have acknowledged.

25.10.2025 07:29 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Exclusive | Trump Pushes for New Classes of Navy Warships The president is personally involved in discussions for what the Navy is calling the “Golden Fleet.” The new warships would be better suited to counter China and other potential future threats.

Senior White House and Navy officials are in early discussions to replace the current mix of warships with a new “Golden Fleet” that would be better suited to counter China and other potential future threats, according to former and current officials.

25.10.2025 06:46 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Burkina Faso: Will Ouagadougou fall to jihadists? - The Africa Report.com Behind the patriotic propaganda and Russian backing, Burkina Faso’s military is losing ground fast and the once unthinkable prospect of an isolated capital now looms large as jihadist groups choke its...

ECFR warns that "Traoré is struggling to control territory beyond major urban centres, and many African and European analysts now fear Ouagadougou could fall to jihadist groups".

Around 60% of Burkina Faso’s territory is now believed to be beyond government authority.

22.10.2025 20:11 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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How a U.S. Oil Giant Became a Pillar of Venezuela’s Fragile Economy

“I want Chevron here for another 100 years,” Mr. Maduro said after Chevron got a U.S. permit to restart pumping oil. The company has been in Venezuela since 1923.

18.10.2025 14:12 👍 1 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0
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China's Plan to Sink U.S. Navy Aircraft Carriers Comes Down to 3 Words A look inside China's A2/AD "bubble." How carrier-killer missiles, hypersonic weapons, and a "drone wall" are designed to keep the U.S. Navy and its aircraft carriers out.

Missiles, Subs, and Drones: How China Plans to Sink a U.S. Aircraft Carrier

16.10.2025 21:10 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Ermenistan ve Azerbaycan: Kalıcı Barışa Giden Zorlu Yol | International Crisis Group Ermenistan ve Azerbaycan arasında ihtilafı sonlandıracak anlaşma imzaya hazır bekliyor. Barış, hem iki ülke hem de iki ülkenin bölgesel ekonomik entegrasyona dair ortak vizyonları için faydalı olur. B...

Ermenistan-Azerbaycan barışının sağlanması Güney Kafkasya’da büyük bir değişim yaratabilir. Yıllardır kapalı olan sınırların açılmasıyla, bölgenin Avrupa ile Asya arasında bir transit merkezi haline gelmesine katkıda bulunarak küresel ekonomiye entegrasyonu güçlendirebilir.

16.10.2025 21:10 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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U.S. B-52s and Helicopters Fly Near Venezuela in Show of Threats

An elite Army Special Operations aviation unit (160th Special Operations Aviation Regiment) has been conducting flights in the southern Caribbean Sea near the coast of Venezuela.

16.10.2025 20:04 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Fragments of 2003 Cable Detail Torture in a Secret C.I.A. Prison

"...an interrogator revving a power drill near a blindfolded prisoner to scare him into divulging Al Qaeda secrets in the aftermath of the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks. In another, the interrogator is holding a handgun to the prisoner’s head."

16.10.2025 07:46 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Russia’s Submarine Problem Is Much Worse Than Many Imagine - Naval News The Russian submarine Novorossiysk, an Improved Kilo-class vessel, has been forced to limp home to the Baltic after a mechanical failure in the Mediterranean. While some reports exaggerated its plight...

"Together with a ban on Russian warships visiting Cyprus, which had previously supplied refueling and maintenance services, this was a major blow to the Russian presence in the Mediterranean."

16.10.2025 07:29 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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IAI unveils new generation multi-layered defence system against drone swarms at AUSA 2025 Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) has introduced a new generation of its Counter-Unmanned Aerial Systems (C-UAS) Swarm solution at AUSA 2025.

Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) has introduced a new generation of its Counter-Unmanned Aerial Systems (C-UAS) Swarm solution at AUSA 2025.

16.10.2025 04:50 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Singapore prepares to launch first multirole combat vessel Singapore is set to launch the first of its new multirole combat vessels (MRCVs) in October, marking a major milestone in the Republic of Singapore Navy's (RSN's) fleet...

Singapore is set to launch the first of its new multirole combat vessels (MRCVs) in October, marking a major milestone in the Republic of Singapore Navy's (RSN's) fleet renewal programme.

16.10.2025 04:44 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Opinion | Israel Cannot Go On Winning Like This

All of this should concern Israelis. Even if the war ends, there will then need to be a moment of soul-searching about the collective society’s responsibility for the years of mass killing and displacement. Palestinians desperately need this war to end. But so do Israelis.

11.10.2025 06:11 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

An arrest means that counterintelligence has failed to deter and, for a time, to detect the recruitment of an American by a foreign intelligence service.

11.10.2025 05:15 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Israel at War With Itself

Some 83,000 Israelis emigrated in 2024, 50 percent more than the previous year. Seven members of the Israeli military died by suicide in July and August alone.

05.10.2025 07:46 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0