A line graph showing the success rates for fiscal years 2015-2025 as a function of percentile score. The curve for fiscal year 2025 is substantially lower than for previous fiscal years.
With these results in hand, we can now reproduce the graph that @joshuasweitz.bsky.social posted.
It is still shocking, but we can now understand why it looks the way it does: The number of R01 and R56 awards were down while the number of applications were up.
16/20
09.03.2026 14:56
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NIH Data Book
The plot is only part of the story.
The data do not include lost science via terminations, freezes, stalled payments, and award delays. The collapse in awards rates will lead to job loss, gaps in research programs, and drive scientists to spend more time writing grants rather than doing science.
07.03.2026 01:59
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Graph of award probability of R35 and R01 from NIH factbook as a function of review rank percentile. As is apparent, 2025 is a significant departure, with lower award probabilities at all scores <40 and significant departures from norm, where even being in the top 10% is no longer a nearly certain indicator of success.
Data source: https://report.nih.gov/nihdatabook/report/302
The data is in: the NIH goalposts have shifted.
What were once almost certain fundable scores have become coin flips and what used to be likely grants have become aspirational, leading to fewer awards.
Another manifestation of how HHS policies have led to fewer awards and less science.
07.03.2026 01:59
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oh yeah?
09.03.2026 04:23
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There are a lot of options, but Iβll never *not* cue up Livinβ on a Prayer at the 50% mark, because I need all the cheesy confidence I can summon up for the second half.
09.03.2026 04:59
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Yes! High stakes synchronized ski teams?! In searching around apparently any time a sighted person tries it (with a blindfold), no matter how skilled a skier they are the universal response is that itβs psychologically terrifying.
08.03.2026 20:35
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Was just saying this last night watching downhill. Whereβs mu commentary on who the athletes are, their training regimen, how they got to where they are today and how the rules of the event work? Why am I stuck searching Wikipedia for literally the basics?
Sled hockey is better in this respect.
08.03.2026 20:29
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youβre hired
06.03.2026 04:05
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a pack of kittens closes in a a large dog standing on a chair
David Attenborough [whispering]:
βAs the predators close in on their helpless prey, we can only watch in silent horror, for it is not manβs role to interfere in the hierarchy of nature.β
04.03.2026 13:08
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04.03.2026 04:46
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codon usage
About the Conference
Codon usage biasβthe preference for certain synonymous codonsβis a key factor in genome regulation. Codon usage and synonymous codon mutations have been shown to influence gene ex...
Just a reminder - Please Register for the 3rd Codon Usage Conference in Montreal, Canada from May 31- June 3, right after the RNA Society Meeting.
Even if you can't go, please share! #RNA #RNAsky #RNAbiology
sites.google.com/view/codonus...
02.03.2026 16:24
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Alternative periodic system of chemical elements (source: Wikimedia)
This periodic table shows the origins(!) of chemical elements: The carbon in your bones was created under extreme conditions within dying stars. The iron in your blood comes from exploding stars & the gold in your teeth from neutron stars. We are literally made of star stuff. #science #sagan #stars
01.03.2026 08:57
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Scientists: for a new story, I have one big questionβ>
What is a βgood dayβ in the lab?
Iβm looking for epic examples of the best day ever to general criteria for what constitutes a βgood dayβ compared to a nothing-burger day.
Ping me if you have examples to share!
Re-posts appreciated!
24.02.2026 23:52
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The best days is when I get a fresh batch of data, I start exploring and analyzing it, and I realize there really is something interesting going on and I'm the only person in the world who knows about it for a little while
25.02.2026 14:40
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So strange how none of these FAQs are "how many experience points do I need to stop taking this quiz every year"
25.02.2026 02:51
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FAQ 8: Can I lose XP?
Generally, XP remains with you once earned. However, if your admin decides to reset or clear the slate, then you'll lose all the XP earned.
Absolutely no user has ever asked this question upon learning about this system. None.
25.02.2026 02:50
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A screenshot of FAQs for XP
Answer to some common questions about XP.
1. What are Experience Points (XP)? Experience Points (XP) are rewards you earn by completing learning activities on the platform. They reflect your progress, track engagement, and help you unlock new learning levels.
2. How can I earn XP? You earn XP by completing a variety of learning learning activities, such as courses, videos, audio books, journeys, skill benchmarks, updating role, focus skills, and more...
3. How do I move from one level to another? Each level has a defined XP requirement. As you accumulate XP, you automatically advance to the next level once you meet the threshold...
4. How can I stay on top of the XP leaderboard? To rise on the leaderboard, consistently complete learning activities and particpate in ongoing programs or challenges...
5. What's the benefit of earning XP? XP helps measure your learning momentum and recognize your effort. It also contributes to attaining achievements, maintaining certifications, and discovering new learning opportunities within the platform.
"we've added this new feature to the online training system, so let's answer some frequently asked questions about whether there's any point to it at all. sneak preview: no"
25.02.2026 02:49
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it's a level tree for the university's online learning system. it is a series of icons and XP points, with zero additional details or branches. it does not go to 11.
cannot wait until I get to level 4 and unlock the... blue triangle over the white oval
25.02.2026 02:45
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Also I really should be unlocking some new skills in my tech tree considering how many times I've passed the radiation safety quiz.
25.02.2026 02:09
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A screenshot of the university of colorado "information security awareness" required course. The top right has an orange badge reading "EARN 60 XP"
Well this is new.
Now I want to know how many times to I have to take the university's IT security awareness quiz before I level up.
25.02.2026 02:08
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Why do I have to pretend that I'm going to print something in order to save it as a PDF. Why do I have to engage in a little ruse.
23.02.2026 21:43
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you can tuck him in a bucket in the corner there
either round or square
24.02.2026 03:40
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Increasingly the stories sound like the stories about tourists picked up in Iran or Russia, for trivial or inexplicable reasons. How long before we start to read them and say, like Russia and Iran, "well, they really should have understood the risks of visiting the United States."
21.02.2026 15:33
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Dogs and a handler from the Nome serum run
Iβll pack the sled
20.02.2026 16:15
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This is so cool someone should do kindergarten teachers next
20.02.2026 15:43
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Heard someone say 'hemogoblin' yesterday, and I think I will be keeping the word for a long time, potentially forever.
16.02.2026 16:58
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Sporophytes, on a farm wall, catching the late evening light.
County Clare, Ireland.
Cormacscoast.com walking tours
16.02.2026 09:27
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How consistent are your input lengths? When we do protocol optimization for direct RNA seq, especially short read heavy stuff, we run everything on a Tapestation prior to nanopore adapter ligation so that we can think in moles and not nanograms.
16.02.2026 17:04
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Movie description of the B horror move Death PhD. Gawdawful movie.
Now this is a movie plot!!! Someone understands grad school.
14.02.2026 23:10
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