I finally managed to find a true ‘leopard-spot’ map of Italy (not easy! Though @KalistatData makes it possible…). It’s well known that male youth inactivity is much higher in the South than in the North. However, since 2018 the change has been scattered in a leopard-spot pattern across the country.
At this link you can find an article of mine published yesterday in Il Foglio (in Italian), where I discuss the state of Italy’s labor market before the energy shock. Thanks, as always, to Il Foglio for the hospitality.
www.ilfoglio.it/economia/202...
Today in the New York Times you can find an interview with me where I discuss why the run-up in energy prices creates a bit of a dilemma for the Fed. Thanks to Colby for reaching out. Enjoy.
www.nytimes.com/2026/03/10/b...
For today’s map: something you might not expect. According to @istat_it data (via @KalistatData), political participation — measured as attendance at mass meetings — has declined sharply since 2001, especially in the South. Yet despite this decline, participation remains higher in the South.
🇨🇭 I continue to believe the figure below explains a lot about Swiss dynamics, including political outcomes. The unemployment rate of Swiss nationals (ILO definition) has been essentially stable since the early 1990s.
Among the many incredible datasets in @KalistatData, you can even find the number of high-quality olive oil producers by province. Italy is world-famous for its olive oil, yet the production of high-quality products is extremely concentrated in just a few provinces.
How many foreign students are there in lower secondary schools in Italy? Easy with @KalistatData.
One of the least discussed facts is that the household saving rate in Italy has almost returned to pre-2008 levels. In the data, this hasn’t happened because households cut consumption, but because disposable income has risen faster than consumption. In other words: very good news.
It was just a glitch, we published the correct version on other social media. Here below you can see the correct map. No need for passive-aggressive. Cheers
For today’s map: the female employment rate. Since 2018 the increase in female employment has been driven mainly by the Center-South, where some provinces have seen gains of up to 10 percentage points, while some Northern provinces have actually moved backward in terms of female employment rate.
For today’s map (courtesy of @KalistatData): the fertility rate of Italians (Italians only, excluding foreigners) by province in 2002 and 2024. There’s a clear decline, concentrated especially in the South. The provincial average was 1.16 in 2002; in 2024 it’s 1.10.
Obviously this isn’t today’s main topic — just a moment of lightness. The map shows population changes across municipalities in the Marche region from '01 to '19. You can clearly see depopulation in the Apennine areas and growth along the coast. Hard to build this map? Not at all with @KalistatData.
Things I do while having coffee. It took me 3 minutes to create this map. Thanks to #AI? Not exactly. Better — it’s thanks to @KalistatData, to how easy it is to retrieve and process data. And yes, thanks to AI as well. In the coming days I’ll show you what we’re able to do with @KalistatData.
I keep seeing many argue that running a current account deficit is never a problem, under any circumstances. I respectfully disagree. At the very least, one should acknowledge that an open economy faces an intertemporal budget constraint.
In recent weeks, some political and academic commentators have celebrated the decline in the trade deficit and linked it to tariffs. However, the latest data — including today’s release — confirm the opposite narrative.
Do you like sports? Do you go to the stadium? Looking at the relative price of sporting events in Italy, it seems people love them — and that demand remains robust despite rising prices.
Italy’s December industrial production data (+3.2% y/y) is certainly positive. That said, a large gap remains with employment dynamics in the sector — one of the many pieces of the employment–output puzzle. The hope is that the gap closes from the bottom up.
The incredible evolution of Italy’s prime-age population. Have you ever heard it discussed? The peak was in 2009. The effects of the subsequent collapse (despite positive net migration) are often confused with Euro entry or the GFC. How could the Italian economy have grown?
The best line about AI I’ve read so far (and one that perfectly matches my own experience and what I hear around me): ‘AI makes the easy easier — and the hard harder.’
What’s your experience?
The exorbitant privilege, Swiss-style: CHF 4 billion distributed to the states (cantons), to be used to fund schools and other services. We shall defend it, we shall never run a deficit!
Demographics may be the most important factor for economic growth — yet the least discussed. Italy’s working-age population has been in steady decline for 35 years (net of the migration wave of the 2000s), unlike Spain’s, which continues to grow.
Spain’s aggregate GDP growth continues to be very strong, unlike Italy’s anemic performance. It shouldn’t be forgotten that the first — though certainly not the only — key difference is demographics, which have followed a completely different path over the past 10 years.
Over the past few days I’ve shown the evolution of various measures of real wages in Italy and Germany. The table below summarizes the statistics (1995–2019 and 1995–2024) for manufacturing and for all sectors. Note real hourly wages in Italian manufacturing between 1995 and 2019: +18.6%.
In Italy, you constantly hear that joining the Euro caused the stagnation of labor productivity in the periphery. But a simple comparison between Italy and Portugal tells a very different story. And beyond that, the blue line was already decelerating well before the Euro.
🇨🇭 Over the past 20 years, the number of self-employed among Swiss nationals has fallen sharply, a trend common to many countries. By contrast, self-employment has continued to rise among foreigners. What could explain this difference?
Over the past 20 years, the euro’s multilateral nominal exchange rate has, on average, appreciated — especially over the past five. But this nominal appreciation mostly reflects PPP. In real terms, the euro has in fact remained broadly stable.
During the pandemic, core inflation in Switzerland rose less than 2 percentage points vs 2019. In the same period, UK saw a 5-point increase. Why won't anyone learn from the best, and why keep ignoring the counterfactual evidence?
This has drawn a lot of attention: the recent rise in inactivity among young people (ages 15–39) in Italy. But caution is needed — how much of it simply reflects demographics? Fifteen-year-olds don’t have the same inactivity rate as 39-year-olds, and cohort sizes differ hugely.
Evidence that runs counter to the perception in Switzerland. Setting the number of jobs in each canton equal to 100 in 2000, Ticino now stands at 144. Only the Lake Geneva region has done better in terms of job creation.
Since 1970, Japan’s male employment rate has remained broadly stable. By contrast, the female employment rate has risen by about 25 percentage points (roughly 1 pp per year over the past 15 years) — an incredible performance that has gone almost unnoticed.
