A new study offers a breakthrough in detecting risk for #psychosis and #bipolar disorders.
🔗Find out how this work could help clinicians provide more tailored support for people living with these conditions: tinyurl.com/33s73ss9
A new study backed by our BRC Data Science Theme found that CBD may worsen memory and psychotic symptoms when taken before THC in people with #schizophrenia who use cannabis.
🔗Read more on our website: tinyurl.com/4sjnrh2s
@oxfordpsychiatry.bsky.social
🧵 In Summary
Prediction models are not “set and forget.” They must be constantly checked, updated, and re-evaluated—before and after clinical use.
With thoughtful updating, we can keep models useful and safe over time.
📄 Read our commentary: kwnsfk27.r.eu-west-1.awstrack.me/L0/https:%2F...
🚨 What About After Implementation?
Once a model is used in practice, it changes patient outcomes (e.g., high-risk patients get treated and avoid the outcome).
This shifts the relationship between risk factors and outcomes. Updating without accounting for this is risky.
⚖️ Fairness Under Threat
Temporal drift can impact some groups more than others.
Even worse, updating models doesn’t guarantee fairness. It can reduce—or worsen—performance in minority groups.
We need to monitor algorithmic fairness, not just accuracy.
💻 The Catch? Complexity
Dynamic updates need:
Continuous data
More computing power
Digital infrastructure in place
Also, no method kept the original performance in later years. So, updating helps—but doesn’t fix everything.
In our commentary, we have expanded on the findings of the study, the impacts of temporal drift and the importance of addressing it.
A recent study looked at which methods could be effective at addressing this drift doi.org/10.1016/j.bp...
They found that without updating, model performance deteriorated and dynamic updating might be able to address this.
🎯 Why It Matters
One form of drift—calibration drift—means predicted risks no longer match actual outcomes.
📉 High-risk patients might be missed.
📈 Low-risk patients might be overtreated.
This can harm patients and erode trust in predictive tools.
🕰️ What is Temporal Drift?
Data that clinical prediction models face when implemented can differ from the data they were trained on, even in the same setting. This can be due to changing patients, treatments or practices
The result? The model’s predictions start to go wrong.
📣 Bottom line:
People missed by CHR-P services experience a similar prodrome to those who are detected. We need better ways to detect them.
📄 Read the full preprint: doi.org/10.1101/2025...
#Psychosis #MentalHealth #EHR #NLP #EarlyIntervention
📊 Key Findings:
Presence of psychosis prodrome: 85% in both groups
Duration of prodrome: ~18 months in both groups
Symptoms at first presentation: no differences
Symptoms across the prodrome: no differences
Using electronic health records and natural language processing (NLP), we extracted 65 prodromal features (symptoms & substance use) from 1,545 FEP patients.
We compared the presence, duration, first presentation and frequency of prodromal symptoms.
Could it be that those missed (DET-) don’t show early warning signs?
We tested this by comparing DET- patients to those detected (DET+) by CHR-P services before psychosis onset.
Do they share the same prodrome?
Early detection of psychosis through CHR-P (clinical high risk for psychosis) services can allow for preventive care — but most patients are not detected before their first episode (FEP). Why?
Why are so many people with psychosis missed before their first episode?
We studied over 1,500 patients to find out whether those missed by early intervention services show different early signs. Here’s what we found. 🧵👇
🚨 Job adverts LIVE! 🚨
We want to understand how the brain supports abstract cognition in psychosis, using cutting-edge neuroscience.
Non-Clinical RA:
lnkd.in/eva-Zzfj
Clinical RA:
lnkd.in/eSgdad_F
Postdoc:
lnkd.in/eid8gtbR
Oxford University
Due June 23
I am hiring a clinical research assistant for a project on adolescent cannabis use that will use MRI 🧠 and behavioral tasks 🎮 More information is available in the link below, and applicants can send a CV and cover letter to me. Please share—thank you!
tinyurl.com/msn8h2ce
Thanks to everyone who stopped by to talk about how we are using data to improve mental healthcare
Huge thanks to all who joined our Health Research Showcase at Westgate Oxford yesterday! Great to see so many people engaging with our #research!
Read more about the day: tinyurl.com/HRSevent2025
Our Health Research Showcase event is underway! Come join us at Westgate, Oxford and meet our health research experts and learn more about the work they do and how you can get involved!
#BePartofResearch
Join our next Prediction Modelling presentation with Dr @domapoliver.bsky.social @kingsioppn.bsky.social on assessing bias in a transdiagnostic risk calculator for #psychosis.
🗓️Wednesday 28 May, 15:00 - 16:00, Online
www.kcl.ac.uk/events/algor...
Giving a talk next week presenting some new work on algorithmic fairness. Online so come along if you can!
This #MentalHealthAwarenessWeek we asked researchers what one fact they wished more people knew about brain and mental health.
#ThisIsMyCommunity #MHAWeek2025 #mentalhealth
#MentalHealthAwarenessWeek 2025 promotes mental well-being and reduces stigma. The theme "Community" emphasises support networks. Our Researchers share key facts about brain and mental health. The campaign educates, encourages open conversations, and fosters understanding and empathy.
Today postdoctoral researcher Dr Dominic Oliver, who works on the Data Science Theme at our BRC, highlights how new predictive tools can help prevent early signs and symptoms of psychosis escalating.
Read a review of the programme of research: tinyurl.com/y4nj6ha6
@domapoliver.bsky.social
Fantastic news Matthew! Massive, and well deserved, congratulations!!!
Future Proofing Study: a cluster randomised controlled trial evaluating the effectiveness of a universal school-based cognitive–behavioural programme for adolescent depression
This is a *key* new paper in the world of school mental health interventions
A very large trial (N=6388) testing a universal CBT-based app for adolescent depression (13-14y)
No effects found (on depression, anxiety, distress or insomnia)
(🧵)
mentalhealth.bmj.com/content/28/1...
Dominic Oliver presenting his paper
Postdoctoral researcher Dominic Oliver presents on longitudinal evolution of the transdiagnostic prodrome to severe mental disorders: a dynamic temporal network analysis informed by natural language processing and electronic health records.
Paper here 👇
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
#PsychAwayDay
🚨 Available postdoc in my lab @birkbeckpsychology.bsky.social
See below 👇 for further details. 🧠
Any Qs feel free to email 📧
