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Kevin Schwarzwald

@kschwarzwald

Not all those who wander are lost. Climate variability and impacts by day, cities by evening, rock violin by night (sometimes all three at once).

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11.09.2023
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Latest posts by Kevin Schwarzwald @kschwarzwald

One of the drivers of that decision (apart from some probably theoretically solvable ones around structures and loading gauges) was a desire to traffic calm the Maréchaux. Not sure they fully anticipated just how many people would end up using the T3s…

09.03.2026 14:37 👍 3 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

Ahh; that makes sense, thanks

07.03.2026 17:41 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

Yeah, there’s a high-speed line north-south a bit east of Frankfurt, but unfortunately nothing E-W until you hit Halle…

(@alonlevy.bsky.social
have you ever seen anything on why W Germany planned the first HSL where it is? (Instead of, say, on the MUC - Stuttgart - FRA - Rhein/Ruhr corridor))

07.03.2026 15:58 👍 3 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0

Tbf, Ryanair doesn’t pay taxes on its jet fuel

07.03.2026 00:41 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0

Though otoh it’s included in Navigo passes, which most locals passing through are assumed to have, so it’s meant to be a tourist tax

06.03.2026 23:20 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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I know everyone is very excited, but

06.03.2026 19:53 👍 12 🔁 3 💬 0 📌 0
Time series plot depicting predicted Nino 3.4 region ocean temperature anomalies from the latest (Mar 2026) ECMWF ensemble. It depicts an extremely rapid rise in such temperatures, from modest negative anomalies to strong positive anomalies, by mid-summer 2026--indicative of a transition from weak-moderate La Nina conditions to moderate-strong El Nino conditions over just a few months.

Time series plot depicting predicted Nino 3.4 region ocean temperature anomalies from the latest (Mar 2026) ECMWF ensemble. It depicts an extremely rapid rise in such temperatures, from modest negative anomalies to strong positive anomalies, by mid-summer 2026--indicative of a transition from weak-moderate La Nina conditions to moderate-strong El Nino conditions over just a few months.

Whew.

All signs are increasingly pointing to a significant, if not strong to very strong, El Niño event. I'll have more to say in coming weeks & months, but for now I'll just say that this is increasingly likely to become a major regional-to-global climate driver in 2026-2027.

05.03.2026 23:05 👍 417 🔁 192 💬 20 📌 31

no one knows that magnitude though, one of my favorite little quiz questions is how many flights (or flight pax) there are per day in the US alone, people tend to be an order of magnitude off on the low side

04.03.2026 23:56 👍 2 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

;) bsky.app/profile/ksch...

04.03.2026 23:55 👍 2 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

Fun fact, there are ski resorts with total lift capacities of around 300,000 pphpd

04.03.2026 23:54 👍 3 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 1

My favorite coffee shop has a copy lying around, so I’m running out of excuses @drkatemarvel.bsky.social ;)

04.03.2026 17:05 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

(and keep an eye out soon for the paper that we built this dataset for...)

02.03.2026 19:08 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

So sorry, @kellyhereid.bsky.social , it's another downscaled temperature dataset 🫣, but I think there's a great, if specific, use case for this one...

02.03.2026 19:08 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
Preview
BCD-ME 1° bias-corrected (QDM) temperature time series Time series of daily near-surface mean and maximum air temperature from CMIP6 large ensembles, bias-corrected to four reanalysis products using Quantile Delta Mapping, on a near-global 1° grid

See:
📈 Links to the data: app.earthmover.io/marketplace/... , app.earthmover.io/marketplace/...
📜 Our preprint here for all the details, caveats, etc.: eartharxiv.org/repository/v...
💻 Sample code to access the data natively in xarray: github.com/ks905383/bcd...

02.03.2026 19:03 👍 2 🔁 1 💬 1 📌 0

The best part is, the BCD-ME is freely available in Analysis-Ready, Cloud Optimized zarr stores in @earthmover.io 's new Data Marketplace. It's nearly 100 TB uncompressed, but Earthmover and the zarr/dask/xarray ecosystem make using it easier and more seamless than climate data has ever been.

02.03.2026 19:03 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0

The BCD-ME is:
- 300+ runs (sampling internal variability ✅) from
- 12 CMIP6-era Large Ensembles (model uncertainty ✅),
- Bias-corrected and downscaled to 4 reanalysis products ('ground-truth' uncertainty ✅)
- on GWLs (bring your own warming trajectory priors, or pick, say, a Paris Agreement world)

02.03.2026 19:03 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
ClimateUncertaintyLab The Climate Uncertainty Lab (CUL) quantifies the range in future projections of climate impacts and creates tools and datasets to make understanding and constraining that uncertainty easier. CUL works...

🚨We're excited to announce our initial launch of the Bias-Corrected and Downscaled Massive Ensemble (BCD-ME), the largest collection of analysis-ready future temperature data out there, ideal for getting a better sense of what's driving the _climate_ spread in climate impact projections!
🧵 below:

02.03.2026 19:03 👍 12 🔁 4 💬 2 📌 0

"2021–2023: Extreme Years of Global Drought in the Context of Long- and Short-Term Hydroclimate Trends"

New work, led by LDEO PhD student Aandishah Samara (w/ JE Smerdon, R Seager):

journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...

02.03.2026 18:11 👍 14 🔁 6 💬 1 📌 0
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December 2025 through February 2026 was the 2nd warmest winter on record for the Contiguous U.S. according to Prism climate data. The widespread record to near record warmth in the west easily outweighed the cool temps in the east. 🔥🔥🔥

01.03.2026 16:39 👍 607 🔁 268 💬 21 📌 39

Re: the deep floor plates (have heard it’s a downstream consequence of certain earthquake standards?), what percentage of office workers are effectively working in windowless basements 😬😬

01.03.2026 15:05 👍 3 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0

Tbf, in the days before antibiotics……….

01.03.2026 00:30 👍 14 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

You’d think this would be the logical conclusion a service designed mainly with people using those terminals in mind :/ the Chicago equivalent I wrote up a decade ago was that you could catch 90% of riders with fare gates at 5 terminal stations, and another few percent with 5 more

28.02.2026 00:23 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0

I continue to be fascinated by the phenomenon whereby an expert engages with any of the LLMs on their field of expertise and is instantly horrified by the wrong answers, and then goes on to use it for things they are not experts in as though it won’t be just as bad for those.

27.02.2026 14:15 👍 3164 🔁 933 💬 54 📌 91

And with tilting technology too, really forward thinking of them ;)

25.02.2026 00:00 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0

There are way more tourists in Bangkok, Istanbul, and NYC than in Barcelona, Venice, and Dubrovnik, but they’ve got enough going on around the tourists that the tourism doesn’t drown out the real life.

24.02.2026 13:52 👍 74 🔁 4 💬 4 📌 0

(And I will add that this snow was a lot less dense than last months’; but still)

24.02.2026 14:17 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

(Of course 30% still sucks if you need mobility help or pushing a stroller, but it’s often so much worse 😬)

24.02.2026 14:16 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0

Anecdotally it felt like a lot more crosswalks were shoveled than even after a month ago (and way more than the one big one I remember during Adams’). I’d say maybe about 30% of crosswalks without a decent path on my commute this morning.

24.02.2026 14:16 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0

+ depending on definition, a lot of clusters of 30+ story residential (eg Les Olympiades in the 13th)

23.02.2026 15:36 👍 3 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

(And also some Amtrak-Metra connections involve a half-hour+ wait at homewood, or at least did when I last checked this, at which point it’s not much of a benefit)

22.02.2026 15:11 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0