David R. Kotok

Appreciate the share, thank you!

Widening Middle East War No one can forecast the outcome in the short term. Guess? Yes. Multiple scenarios? Yes. Forecast with confidence? No! But there is history for guidance.

Though I will not predict the unpredictable, I can suggest clues for investors.

dkotok.substack.com/p/widening-m... #IranWar #Oil #Investing

University of South Florida Sarasota-Manatee's Bloomberg Lab hosted local high school students to prepare them for careers on Wall Street University of South Florida

"Wall Street Trading with Bloomberg Day is made possible thanks to generous donations from Cumberland Advisers, David Kotok, and Steve Drelich. Kotok & Cumberland provided the support that led to the creation of lab at USF Sarasota-Manatee in March 2017"

The Coming RFK Jr. Health Recession: Part 3 In this update, we survey the implications of RFK Jr.’s leadership in US public health.

RFK Jr.’s change to the childhood vaccination schedule back in Sept 2025, along with vaccine skepticism, means that vaccine-preventable infectious diseases are set for a resurgence.

Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.), who is a medical doctor, weighs in: dkotok.substack.com/p/the-coming... #PublicHealth

The Coming RFK Jr. Health Recession: Part 3 In this update, we survey the implications of RFK Jr.’s leadership in US public health.

(3/3) the national health system. This morning, we offer the first installment in a two-part update.

dkotok.substack.com/p/the-coming... #Economy #PublicHealth

The Coming RFK Jr. Health Recession: Part 3 In this update, we survey the implications of RFK Jr.’s leadership in US public health.

(2/) spending on the part of consumers, affecting sectors such as hospitality. Excess deaths impact demographic economics, longevity, and population.

Human health shapes economies for better or worse. RFK Jr.’s policies and leadership are leading to more sickness and more death while disrupting

(1/) Health-related recessions are precipitated when people who might otherwise work are sick or disabled or dead & therefore not working (or working less). Illness-related absences disrupt business & whittle productivity. Lower earning & higher healthcare expenses translate to less discretionary

"Market Context Amid Global Conflict" - Week in Review Dear Clients & Friends, Thank you for watching Cumberland Advisors’ Week in Review. Our end-of-week update on market conditions, equities & bonds with Matt C. McAleer, President of Private Wealth,…

The latest Cumberland Advisors’ Week in Review, an update on market conditions, equities & bonds with Matt C. McAleer, President of Private Wealth, and John R. Mousseau, Chief Investment Officer. www.youtube.com/watch?v=BqNV... #markets

A Signal for Gold Traders: What David Kotok Is Watching The GIC’s Bahama Central Banking conference ended with a insightful talk on what’s affecting the price of gold.

Gold traders spend a lot of time arguing about the usual suspects.

Inflation.

Real rates.

Central bank buying.

Jewelry demand.

Chinese retail flows.

David Kotok decided to ignore all of them.

What he found is unexpected. substack.com/home/post/p-...

Middle East War: Quick Take 1 A regional war that includes existential risks is underway. Outcomes evolve. All predictions are problematic.

Middle East War: Quick Take 1: As events rapidly unfold, I’ve been consulting experts and reading analyses. See my recommended reads you don’t want to miss, to add to mainstream news coverage. dkotok.substack.com/p/middle-eas...

Middle East War: Quick Take 1 A regional war that includes existential risks is underway. Outcomes evolve. All predictions are problematic.

Middle East War: Quick Take 1

A war that includes existential risks is underway in the Middle East. In understanding the conflict the US and Israel have taken on, note that Iran is the head of the snake — a cooperative of bad actors in the Middle East.

dkotok.substack.com/p/middle-eas...

Is It a Market Correction or a Reallocation? We ask if recent market volatility was a broad market correction or a reallocation within and among asset classes. Or is something else driving volatility (AI, tariffs, wars, federal deficits)?

Market Correction or a Reallocation?

The debate among market agents and observers is whether the AI boom and hyperscale build-out are too extended and whether the rotation of their capital investment into using borrowed money (debt) is a sign of trouble ahead.

dkotok.substack.com/p/is-it-a-ma...

Help Save an Accredited University from a Political Attack FL Gov DeSantis is trying to take the USF Sarasota-Manatee campus and transfer it to New College. IMO, this would be a disaster for the Sarasota-Manatee community and the state.

Help Save an Accredited University from a Political Attack

FL Gov DeSantis is trying to take the USF Sarasota-Manatee campus and transfer it to New College. IMO, this would be a disaster for the Sarasota-Manatee community and the state.

dkotok.substack.com/p/help-save-...

Kotok Report Quick Take — CDC Foundation Fights Measles in SC David R. Kotok talks about the role of the CDC Foundation and its current fight with measles in SC.

Kotok Report Quick Take — CDC Foundation Fights Measles in SC
www.youtube.com/watch?v=iD9j...

20 Days in Mariupol (full documentary) | Academy Award® Winner | FRONTLINE + @AssociatedPress Watch the Academy Award®-winning FRONTLINE/AP documentary in which Ukrainian journalist Mstyslav Chernov and his colleagues risk their lives to document Russia's siege of Mariupol. This journalism…

The last int'l journalists remaining in the city as Russian forces close in, Chernov, photographer Evgeniy Maloletka and field producer Vasilisa Stepanenko capture 'defining images of the war: dying children, mass graves, the bombing of a maternity hospital, and more. www.youtube.com/watch?v=gvAy...

Donroe Doctrine Part 3 – A Possible Bullish Outcome of the Maduro Affair Trump’s Venezuela actions have lessened the Maduro threat to oil production in various South American countries. The outcome has possible bullish scenarios for oil.

Donroe Doctrine Part 3 – A Possible Bullish Outcome of the Maduro Affair

The Donroe Doctrine is about transactional and economic elements as perceived by the administration and not about ideological evolution.

kotokreport.com/donroe-doctr... #Venezuela #Oil #Guyana #Brazil #Inflation #Trump

Kathleen Hays Talks with Catherine Mann Mann Sees U.K Inflation Likely at 2% in "3 or 4 Months," Hard to Tell If It will be "Sustainable". BOE Monetary Policy Comitte Member: Important to recognize these are one-off changes coming from…

Kathleen Hays talks with Catherine Mann of the Bank of England about inflation and the possibility of cutting rates.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=0A8g...

Also, check out her Substack which I follow regularly: kathleenhays.substack.com

Frontline Nursing | USF Health Presented by the Florida Center for Nursing, Frontline Nursing is a podcast that recognizes the impact nurses have on our lives and our communities. Throughout the series, FCN Executive Director,…

Frontline Nursing is a podcast that recognizes the impact nurses have on our lives and our communities and about the issues impacting the nursing workforce, insights from their personal journeys, and what inspires them.

health.usf.edu/nursing/part...

Coffee, Fishing, & ICE Fishing trips start with morning coffee, so we pass on info from JAMA before discussing a recent fishing trip. ICE is last.

Then, yesterday: Epic (chilly) fishing on Okeechobee. Bass playing hard to get in the weeds. Guides shared the real bait: ICE scaring off global anglers. Canadians bailing on trips. "Bad press, man," they say. Florida feeling the freeze.
dkotok.substack.com/p/coffee-fis...

Morning ritual: Black coffee, no cream. JAMA says it wards off dementia. A 65% risk drop if you're consistent. But decaf? Zero hero. Who's with me on the bold brew?

Coffee, Fishing, & ICE Fishing trips start with morning coffee, so we pass on info from JAMA before discussing a recent fishing trip. ICE is last.

Florida state tourism officials are trying to lure foreign tourists back. As far as I can see, it isn’t working. Here’s an Orlando Newspaper headline.

“Migrants languish in US detention centers facing dire conditions and prolonged waits” | Orlando Sentinel

dkotok.substack.com/p/coffee-fis...

What is going on with gold and silver? : The Indicator from Planet Money The prices of gold and silver are on rollercoaster rides; Gold has been rising over the last few years, silver shot up like a skyrocket in January … but then both plunged in price and sputtered…

What is going on with gold and silver? : The Indicator from Planet Money www.npr.org/transcripts/...

Strong Dollar? Treasury Secretary Bessent favors a “strong dollar.” He works for a president who has said he wants a weaker dollar. With a single chart, we examine what markets are saying.

With the present budget outlook deteriorating and the present political behavior in Washington, there is no reason to expect trends to change. dkotok.substack.com/p/strong-dol...

Strong Dollar? Treasury Secretary Bessent favors a “strong dollar.” He works for a president who has said he wants a weaker dollar. With a single chart, we examine what markets are saying.

Our chart compares the movement in US Dollar Index during Trump 1.0 and so far in Trump 2.0. The adage deeming a picture worth a thousand words is correct for the moment.

It appears the market reaction to Trump 2.0 is quite different than it was with Trump 1.0.

kotokreport.com/strong-dollar/

Trying to Forecast the Price of Gold? We examine some statistical evidence that may be helpful in estimating the future price of gold using a present set of variables.

The graphs are a result of months of searching for info that would help explain the movement in the price of gold. Calculations are derived using Microsoft’s assistance with tech products. There is no guarantee of accuracy; this is our best effort and may have errors. kotokreport.com/trying-to-fo...

Trying to Forecast the Price of Gold? We examine some statistical evidence that may be helpful in estimating the future price of gold using a present set of variables.

We will move beyond consideration of the recent violent volatility in the gold price. We will use monthly data points, not daily ones, smoothing the daily jags, and ignore the recent surge in Chinese demand for gold (gold warrants that trade in Shanghai). kotokreport.com/trying-to-fo...

Cumberland Advisors' Weekly Digest Thank you for watching Cumberland Advisors’ Week in Review. Our end-of-week update on market conditions, equities & bonds with Matt C. McAleer, President of Private Wealth, and John R. Mousseau, Chief...

Please find the latest Cumberland Advisors’ Week in Review at this link: mailchi.mp/cumber.com/w...

It's their end-of-week update on market conditions, equities & bonds with Matt C. McAleer, President of Private Wealth, and John R. Mousseau, Chief Investment Officer.

These are russian drones targeted at a civillians.
This is what almost every night looks like for Ukraine.

#UkrainianView

Worth examining trends and causes.

K Is Not Just a Cereal We thank Michael Drury, Chief Economist at McVean Trading, for permission to share some of his views on the K-shaped economy and the outlook. Discussion follows.

The K-Shape doesn't help: dkotok.substack.com/p/k-is-not-j...