Since Jan 2025, the US has lost 526,900 jobs in sectors outside health care and social assistance. Now, for the first time in 4 years, healthcare is also experiencing job losses, -18,600 in February.
Today's job's report is further evidence that the healthcare sector is keeping the labor market afloat. The US averaged a loss of 38.9k jobs per month during the last 13 months when excluding healthcare and social assistance employment gains.
Most people don’t know I was undocumented for about half my life—a refugee of the Contra war in Nicaragua.
I’m saying this because policy can be arbitrary and separate us on paper but life doesn’t. We’re all in this together, even when policy draws lines.
When restaurants are hiring while higher-paying industries are cutting back, it’s a sign households are under pressure and people are taking whatever hours they can get. Meanwhile, health care is the only major sector that keeps adding jobs across almost every economic cycle.
Today's jobs report tells a familiar story: health care keeps the labor market afloat while much of the rest of the economy treads water or slips backward. Job growth remains narrow—and increasingly dependent on one sector. Read my take in Barron's.
www.barrons.com/articles/hea...
Confusing the stock market with the real economy is the oldest analytical mistake in finance. AI is propping up the stock market. But healthcare is propping up the economy. Read my take in @barrons.com www.barrons.com/articles/hea...
Second appearance on Marketplace in 3 days! Hear my take on the deteriorating job market for college graduates.
www.marketplace.org/story/2025/1...
I was on @marketplace.org today. Nearly all job gains in Sept came from health care and restaurants. When the rest of the labor market is flat or losing jobs, a jump in restaurant hiring means workers are stitching together income, not a booming economy. www.marketplace.org/story/2025/1...
Today's PCE release shows real wage growth is fading fast.
Overall: down from ~2.8% in Jan 2024 → ~1.5% now.
Lowest quartile: 3.0% → 0.9%.
HS-or-less: 2.9% → 1.1%.
The decline is hitting the least secure workers hardest.
This labor market downturn is dragging real wage growth to a crawl, with the most financially vulnerable workers—those in low-wage jobs and with limited education—barely managing gains of around 1%. www.barrons.com/articles/wag...
Employment gains saw an 86% decline over the last seven months! We had a bounce back last fall but it's unlikely that'll happen this year given the headwinds (e.g. self-induced bad economic environment).
Low-wage workers briefly broke four decades of wage stagnation - then saw those gains erased. On Labor Day, it’s worth asking: why does the business cycle always punish those at the bottom most? My new piece in Barron’s digs in.
www.barrons.com/articles/wag...
US workers are hurting! The US private sector added a monthly average of 39k jobs in the last 2 years and a monthly average of 17k since January when you remove healthcare and social assistance employment gains. It's a strong labor market mirage. www.barrons.com/articles/une...
The labor market isn’t as strong as we thought and it’s getting worst. Read why on @barrons.com
Spoiler: nominal wages are sticky and the vacancy-to-unemployment ratio shows workers moving to preserve real wages, not increased labor demand.
www.barrons.com/articles/une...
Missed the live discussion on worker power and the labor market? Don't worry. Here's the recording of today's Power Half-Hour.
It was a great pleasure to chat with some of the best in the labor space.
www.linkedin.com/events/thepo...
I think it's already much weaker than many believe. Job growth has been well below the pre-pandemic trend for the past year and it's getting worse. We're not seeing mass layoffs but low job growth and a diminishing labor force signal that this is a bad economy for American workers.
Worst jobs report in recent years!
89% net job growth concentrated in just 2 industries (healthcare & social assistance + government)
-130k Labor force
+190k Long-term unemployed
+234k Marginally attached to labor force
This isn’t cyclical noise, the labor market is backsliding.
Flagging that # of people not in the labor force increased by 813k OTM and by 1.5 mill since last Sept. Low labor demand, evidenced by slow real wage growth + jobs stagnant/down in non-health related industries, has driven people out of the labor force en masse already. Happy to discuss further.
What if the 2021–24 labor market didn’t reflect growing worker power—but rather workers scrambling to recover lost purchasing power amid inflation and nominal wage rigidity? High job openings may have been a symptom of real wage erosion, not a tight labor market.
www.atlantafed.org/research/pub...
Two biggest stories below the topline figures showing that the labor market is getting worse:
1) U-6, the most encompassing measure of unemployment has 3-month average not seen since Nov. 2021.
2) professional and business services employment has lost 271k jobs since May 2023.
For context, real gross domestic income (GDI) decreased 0.2 percent this quarter, 2025Q1, in contrast to an increase of 5.2 percent in the last quarter, 2024Q4. 🤯
The 0.2% decline in real GDI is an early warning sign of economic softening, especially when paired with slowing GDP and high interest rates. Points to underlying weakness not yet captured by spending data.
www.bea.gov/news/2025/gr...
The kicker is that nearly every state labor department and revenue agency doesn’t regularly collect formal occupational classifications (SOC). Basically, anyone can list their occupation as waiter and there’s no way of verifying whether that’s correct.
Friends, this is my last month leading the Worker Power and Economic Security program at the Roosevelt Institute. Grateful to have worked alongside brilliant fellows and colleagues for the past 4 years. Optimistic about opportunities to come. Onward. ✊ #EconSky #Labor #WorkerPower
Inflation policy requires effective housing policy. Shelter driving more than half of the inflation increase, up 4% OTY. Shelter inflation increased for the first time since last August. Tariffs and high interest rates are not helping. www.barrons.com/articles/wil...
Good topline jobs figures but here are some red flags:
-Continued rise in long-term unemployed, 1.7 m and nearly 1 in 4 of all unemployed
-9k fewer federal workers, deferred resignations cliff still looming
-Professional + business services stopped losses but big structural losses in past 2 years
Surge in imports leads to decline, -0.3%, in real GDP in 2025Q1. For context, the US economy grew at a quarterly average of 2.5% last year.
www.bea.gov/news/2025/gr...
Must read on why we need economic democracy, an economy controlled by the many and not by the few, and how we get there. Perspectives from over 20 great progressive thinkers.
Extremely excited to have, the one and only, Paul Krugman join the Roosevelt Institute.
Unpacking CPI figures show a mixed picture on inflation:
-Shelter inflation slowed, finally but for how long.
-Food inflation still high, and being felt.
-Medical care inflation surged, red flag if it persists.
-Recreation and flight fare inflation dropped, consumer fears of downturn?
Stay tuned!
