I was in a 2 hour briefing today on the Iran War. All the briefings are closed, because Trump can't defend this war in public.
I obviously can't disclose classified info, but you deserve to know how incoherent and incomplete these war plans are.
1/ Here's what I can share:
After reading Brian Bagnall's books about Commodore and Jeremy Reimer's series on the Amiga at Ars Technica, it's evident the company was almost always in financial trouble. Even in the years when it was selling millions of C64s and Amiga 500s profit margins were surprisingly thin - CBM was no IBM.
It’s too soon to tell who will win the war between the United States and Iran. But, at this point, my money would be on Russia and China. wapo.st/4ui9QzJ
The US strikes on Iran are extremely unpopular with the public, and only getting more so as time goes on.
Who was it that said "the UK will spend ten years getting out of the EU, then another ten years getting back in"? It's been a monumental waste of political energy and state capacity.
Ollie Carrol, Anshel Pfeffer & I wrote last night on the challenge of intercepting Iranian Shaheds. More than 2,000 fired, some hitting important targets, including radars. This is a problem that Ukraine understands well. Understandably, it wants something in return www.economist.com/internationa...
With experts predicting that instability in the Middle East could see the price of a barrel of oil jumping to anywhere between $100 and $120 a barrel, new @eciu.net analysis has revealed how much more this could see petrol car drivers having to pay to fuel their vehicles.
eciu.net/media/press...
Chart showing European gas, Brent crude oil and stock prices since the start of 2026. Gas prices are up 80% (mostly since the Iran invasion), oil prices up 40%, and stocks have barely changed
One way in which a 2026 energy crisis* might be different to 2022: it would likely affect oil as well as gas.
In 2022, the main issue was gas, which mainly affected electricity and heating bills.
If oil spikes as well, expect transport and more industrial production to face problems
From FT comments
Polling from More in Common shows that Greens and Reform win a higher share of voters who struggle to make ends meet, while Labour and the Conservatives win those who are most financially comfortable
Reform UK and the Greens are hoovering up financially insecure voters. My piece this week looks at the return of Britain's class politics (with a twist) www.economist.com/britain/2026...
On the wrong side of public opinion with this one yougov.com/en-gb/daily-...
Fomenting a revolution when you have little ability to control how events play out on the ground can lead to unfavourable outcomes.
A map showing casualties. Iran – killed: 1,045, injured: hundreds Israel – killed: 11, injured: hundreds US soldiers – killed: 6, injured: 18 Bahrain – killed: 1, injured: 4 Iraq – killed: 2, injured: 5 Jordan – killed: 0, injured: 5 Kuwait – killed: 4, injured: 35 Lebanon – killed: 50 injured: 335 Oman – killed: 1, injured: 5 Qatar – killed: 0, injured: 16 Saudi Arabia – killed: 0, injured: 0 United Arab Emirates – killed: 3, injured: 68
Al Jazeera has a useful tracker of who is getting killed and injured.
www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/...
And Brexit reduced the efficiency of energy trading between the UK and EU. See the analysis here... www.energy-uk.org.uk/wp-content/u...
Media’s pro-Western bias is often blatant, sometimes subtle but always omnipresent.
Below is an example of the latter.
The Daily Beast regularly interviews John Gartner who thinks that Trump has frontotemporal dementia; he points to various signs and symptoms which might indicate that. I'm not sure personally, Trump is clearly slowing in thought & deed, but dementia...? youtu.be/Udvh-YdBG6w?...
So, in launching a huge bombing campaign on Iran they apparently didn't plan for:
- Who takes over;
- Interceptor shortages from sustained drone retaliation;
- How to defend US bases in the region;
- Threats to ships in the Strait of Hormuz; and
- How to evacuate Americans with airspace closed.
Prof. Robert Pape:
"I have studied every air campaign since WWI... I've modelled the bombing of Fordow and regime change in Iran for 20 years... We are now in the grip of the escalation trap... This has never worked in over 100 years... Trump is up against the weight of history".
"It is possible that Trump’s military campaign doesn’t overthrow the regime & that his attempts at a deal similarly fail. In such a scenario, 'Trump could find himself with no regime change, no deal and no capacity to honor the promises he’s made to the Iranian people.'"
www.wsj.com/politics/nat...
The UK did close most of its "East of Suez" bases by 1971, so Aden, Sharjah, Singapore etc.
RACHMAN: “.. Trump is now committed to a process for which there is no real precedent: regime change brought about by air power alone.”
@gideonrachman.bsky.social @financialtimes.com
www.ft.com/content/4371...
US ammunition stocks aren't infinite either. All the Iranian regime has to do is absorb the punishment and survive in some form.
www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most sensitive pressure points in the global economy. Conflict in Iran could put it at risk indefinitely. www.wired.com/story/what-h...
WSJ reporting that the U.S. used Claude for the air strikes in Iran. Centcom has been using Claude "for intelligence assessments, target identification and simulating battle scenarios" www.wsj.com/livecoverage...
I’ll try to remember this slide every time I get impostor syndrome. But then I’ll also remember that the authors got paid more for doing this than I’ll earn in a decade.
The death of the housing ladder
The average income of a first-time buyer is £61k. But the average second or third-time buyer is earning £91k!
Poor price growth in starter homes, plus rising moving costs, is trapping Brits in the first homes they buy
www.thetimes.com/article/9302...
Though the defeated Reform candidate Matthew Goodwin and party leader Nigel Farage have taken ill-tempered swipes at the electoral process, in truth this was a remarkably strong showing by Reform in a seat that is not demographically favourable to the party. Goodwin’s 28.7% vote share is the sixth-best showing yet by either Ukip, the Brexit Party or Reform, and the 14.6% rise in the Reform vote is also in the top 10 byelection showings by any of these parties. Though the party was comfortably beaten by the Greens, this was an impressive performance by Reform in a seat with many graduates, students, young people and Muslims – all groups who tend to shun the party.
While by no means understating the Green's achievement, my #BGE2024 co-author, @robfordmancs.bsky.social, provides a really important reminder here (observer.co.uk/news/politic...) that, actually, Reform's performance shouldn't be dismissed either.
I'm no fan of the Iranian regime, which is brutal and oppressive. And I've also seen these images of celebratory crowds in some Iranian cities. But, but, but... bsky.app/profile/cnn....
Well possibly. But the bombings could also allow what's left of the regime to portray the opposition as unpatriotic foreign stooges encouraging their homeland to be destroyed by the hated Americans & Israelis. Iranian voices I've seen on Bluesky have understandly complicated feelings right now.
Not sure the US and Israel can simply bomb their way to regime change. And the question must be, how many civilians will be killed along the way, like the schoolgirls yesterday? www.meforum.org/mef-online/t...
