Alexander Clarkson

So I truly believe the US is winning the cost-exchange ratio, but may face nebulous outcomes after the conflict ends because of the problematic ways weapons are purchased (I do not think this is a cut and dry cost exchange thing as so many do on this site. Nuance matters, IMHO).

A Tchernivtsi, sud-ouest de l'Ukraine, lors de l'autopsie d'un militaire ukrainien décédé, transféré depuis la Russie dans le cadre d'un échange, les médecins légistes ont découvert une grenade non explosée. La morgue a été évacuée et les explosifs neutralisés par des pyrotechniciens (1)

Worth noting that even if the Americans didn't win the many bodies left a long legacy and now if even if the Americans don't win the carnage caused to many targets will also leave a long legacy

Nunavut MP Lori Idlout walks with Carney to Liberal caucus after crossing the floor from NDP After crossing the floor to the government from the NDP, Nunavut MP Lori Idlout walked into Liberal caucus alongside Prime Minister Mark Carney on Wednesday. When asked what prompted her move, Idlout ...

Nunavut MP Lori Idlout walks with Carney to Liberal caucus after crossing the floor from NDP

Who needs an election when you can pick the pockets of the opposition benches?

www.cbc.ca/player/play/...

The Exposure Risk Index compiles rich sources of data to create a heat map of the structural vulnerabilities of the candidate states to various forms of manipulation by external actors. It focus on four dimensions:

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As part of the @geopower-eu.bsky.social project, an EU Horizon consortium in which VE Insight is involved, partners are creating indices to capture geopolitical vulnerabilities of the 9 EU candidate states.

The most recent is the Exposure Risk Index:
geo-power.eu/research-out...

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Starmer turning the screw over Badenoch's claim she never wanted the UK to join US/Israeli invasion of Iran

"She & the Reform leader have been spooked, because they’ve realised they jumped into supporting a war without considering the consequences, and now she’s furiously trying to backpedal."

I don't think the regime so much falls as frays at the edges and gradually loses geopolitical options as it focuses on keeping its grip at home. That's a recipe for immense violence and eventual civil war

Now the long term aspects of both cases are also bad for Israel, but any analysis of that trajectory needs to take the current material conditions of Gaza and Iran into account

So much of the commentary about IRGC options is of a par with the kind of takes that declare Hamas is actually winning even as Gaza is levelled to the ground

Though in the short term more achievable than many on this site really want to acknowledge

Stalin eventually won that war

bsky.app/profile/aphc...

This and the point in the next QT I think are not being adequately engaged enough with on this site because so many are so desperate for Trump to fail that they've become susceptible to buying into aspects of IRGC self-mythologisation
bsky.app/profile/aphc...

The regime won't fall overnight, but the level of damage currently being damaged to the material conditions that define its options do matter to future trajectories for Iran and the region

The problem with the extent to which people on this site have started to repeat Pape's airpower hypothesis almost as a mantra is that it means too many are underestimating the level of damage this kind of unrelenting bombing can do to a society

There is a long term Israeli pattern by now of seeking to dismantle the foundations of Iran's regional power status

No surprise: table media reports that while the number of German employees went up only 12.7% between 2016 and 2025, the number of employees in the defence sector went up by 64.9%

Windows 11 has an updated Minesweeper game

Really enjoyed this fascinating book by @joerglau.bsky.social exploring the global security challenges that Germany and Europe now face

The broader tenor is the destruction of Iran's capacity to be a functioning geopolitical actor

The hand-wringing over the lack of American strategic coherence should not distract from the likelihood that Israel as the other key actor in this war most likely has quite clear strategic intentions

Democrat Shawn Harris to face Trump-endorsed Republican Clay Fuller in runoff to replace Marjorie Taylor Greene, CNN projects | CNN Politics Republican Clay Fuller will face Democrat Shawn Harris in a runoff to replace former GOP Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene in Georgia’s 14th Congressional District, CNN projects.

🔵 Democrat Shawn Harris has forced a runoff in the special election for Marjorie Taylor Greene’s deep-red Georgia seat (Trump +37).

With ~70% in, Harris leads with 38.3% to Trump-endorsed Republican Clay Fuller’s 34.5%.

Runoff set for April 7. A major warning sign for MAGA.

I think Dan Caine and other senior officers are getting too lightly treated in debate about this

It's why I find the "OMG TRUMP SAID THIS THING" reactions on this site a bit absurd. Might be more helpful if that energy was expended working out who is actually calling the operational shots

Turns out that America might occasionally depend on European help after all

Maybe it was Dan Caine all along

John Peel konnte man in Niedersachsen wöchentlich Live im Radio durch BFBS hören

Hah! Schon war. Ist kein Zufall gewesen das Hannover eine der deutschen Zentren der Britpopwelle war. Man hatte ja auch direkten Zugang durch BFBS radio