Spoiler alert: You don’t have to read the book…but you should!! One of the best books of 2025.
13.01.2026 23:27
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Spoiler alert: You don’t have to read the book…but you should!! One of the best books of 2025.
In the 1930s appeasement was
defined by land. In 2025 it is determined by microcircuits.
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/08/b...
Hopefully sandwich man will now get his just desserts
Empty Calories: Strong exports and industrial output helped lift China's second-quarter growth, but the rest of the picture remains bleaker: sluggish consumption, deflationary pressures and a continued decline in housing prices. There's no there there.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Nvidia said new US restrictions on sales of an AI chip to China could cost the company up to $5.5 billion. The chip is designed to adapt to a US clampdown on a more complex chip that itself had been designed to meet US regulations affecting an earlier generation.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
I spoke with Politico about Trump administration threats to delist Chinese companies on Wall Street. The U.S. is “looking at all the different levers they might have to put pressure on China — or at least in their eyes, put pressure on China.”
www.politico.com/newsletters/...
"There are no appeals to ideological alignment or shared values that will sway Trump to support Taiwan. The most powerful argument is that his ambitions for reindustrializing America are not achievable without critical inputs" from Taiwan's leading companies.
www.taipeitimes.com/News/editori...
"Peter Navarro? I barely know him. Lutnick? Maybe I met him once."
www.politico.com/news/2025/04...
“The violation raises concerns about the data security practices of DOGE’s work at the Treasury Department and other agencies as it digs into sensitive government databases.”
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Beijing has declared consumption China's No. 1 economic priority. But a closer look at the plans shows that's just window-dressing. It's is still full speed ahead on high tech investment while consumers take the backseat. My latest for the Atlantic Council.
www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/econog...
“Chinese export volume is growing three times as fast as global trade. This means China’s success is directly coming at the expense of manufacturers in other countries, which increasingly cannot compete and face pressure to abandon sectors that China targets.”
www.nytimes.com/2025/02/18/o...
After failing to deliver on promises of economic stimulus, Beijing is trying to impose stability on its volatile stock market by mandating institutional investment. Call it regulation with Leninist characteristics. My latest for the Atlantic Council.
www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/econog...
Snow day
DeepSeek's success shows how China's ingenious entrepreneurs and engineers will overcome the obstacles Washington throws in front of them - by whatever means necessary. My latest in @TheAtlantic.com www.theatlantic.com/internationa...
China's Xi Jinping has missed an opportunity to build a robust consumer class, writes Bloomberg's Shuli Ren. That gives him fewer weapons vis a vis the US in a trade standoff, where consumption is king.
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
Where's the Bottom? Unsurprisingly, given Beijing's disappointing economic stimulus effort, China’s residential real estate market resumed its decline in January. New home sales fell over 3% yoy.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
If it's Tuesday, it must be Belgium....
New Year's Doldrums: China’s manufacturing output again declined in January, further underlining the need for economic stimulus. The Caixin manufacturing purchasing managers index fell to the lowest in 4 months. Trump tariffs only make the situation more uncertain.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
On Lutnick saying tariffs would have prevented DeepSeek breakthrough: If you have a hammer everything looks like a nail, but if you don’t have any nails then all your hammer does is break stuff. Lot of policy areas, including AI, where there are no nails for the tariff hammer.
I’m no particular fan of Tom Friedman, but, yes: “If Trump’s all-in-on-fossil-fuels, “drill, baby, drill” rallying cry really becomes our strategy, it will not make America great again. But it will definitely help make China great again.”
www.nytimes.com/2025/01/28/o...
A useful assessment of the likely Trump and Xi positions on the looming trade standoff based on how they handled the issue during Trump #1. It would also be interesting to see Bob's take on how the US policies inherited from Biden could affect the two sides' strategies.
This is hard to swallow.
IMF-Speak on China’s Outlook: “In China, should fiscal and monetary measures prove insufficient to address domestic weakness, the economy is at risk of a debt-deflation stagnation trap, where falling prices raise the real value of debt, undermining activity further.”
www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Art...
The scales are tipping back toward Red from Expert….
#UkraineAlert – If Western leaders choose to sacrifice Ukraine in a misguided bid to placate Putin, the shift from a rules-based international order to the law of the geopolitical jungle will be complete, writes Victor Liakh.
China’s consumer inflation weakened further in a setback for government efforts to stamp out deflation and revive demand. Factory deflation extended for a 27th straight month.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
China's markets are deeply worried about falling prices--even as Beijing ordains that private sector economists should not use the word "deflation." There is now a 300 basis point yield gap with US 10-year bonds. No wonder capital outflows are at record levels.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
