Marley Miller

The National Housing Bank: Will it help councils build? Despite the Government's ambitious pledge to build 1.5 million homes this Parliament, new development remains stalled. Just 145,000 homes were completed across England...

Full article here:
www.themj.co.uk/national-hou...

5️⃣Be experimental. The government has ambitious New Town plans and faces stalled sites across the country.

If the NHB can invest in solutions to unlock these or new technologies like modular homes it could help bring down the need for temporary accommodation and costly hotels.

Marley MIller
4️⃣Expand low-cost loans. Housing associations are currently struggling with financial pressures.

To make borrowing cheaper for them and increase the affordability of homes, the govt should expand the amount of low-interest loans the NHB can offer (currently £2.5bn earmarked)

3️⃣Unlock pension capital. Pension funds won’t be able to invest lots more in affordable housing unless they can meet their regulatory reqs

NHB guarantees should be designed to overcome these hurdles & give funds more certainty over rental income to unlock £bns of investment

2️⃣Genuine funding flexibility. The Treasury must allow the NHB to have flexibility in how it allocates its £16bn.

Rigid rules have left housing funding unspent in the past. More flex is required to get money out the door quickly to where it’s needed.

1️⃣Lean into devolution. Govt promised to work with Mayors to agree an approach meets their needs. It has given London £322m & will do similar for Manchester

The govt should now focus on ensuring other city regions have the staff & expertise needed to support local projects

England built just 145k homes last year - less than half what’s needed for the 1.5m target.

But the government has earmarked £16bn for the NHB to deliver over 500k homes.

To deliver these homes, quickly, it should:

🏠Could the National Housing Bank be a game changing policy for getting more homes built this Parliament?

I’ve teamed up with @jacktshaw.bsky.social to write in the MJ what the government must consider at next week’s Budget to make it a success 👇

The government should definitely be looking at this.

📉 Stamp duty makes it costly to move and puts people off downsizing - exacerbating the housing shortage.

⚖️ Council tax bands are clearly not fair and the system needs to be reviewed.

Amazing to see the government announce the National Housing Bank that we called for.

This could be a transformational tool for attracting private investment into affordable housing.

And will be key for delivering 1.5 million homes this Parliament.

See our full report here with Homes for the North
setting out why this model is needed and how it should be implemented:
www.global-counsel.com/insights/rep...

🏡Fantastic to see our proposal to give Homes England a new 'affordable housing bank' role in the Spending Review

This will be vital for attracting investment into affordable housing

And means the new £39bn Affordable Homes Programme can focus more on social rent homes to maximise affordability

🚨New report with @homesfornorth calls on the government to adopt a novel approach to affordable housing investment:

Giving Homes England a ‘National Affordable Housing Bank’ role to invest alongside the private sector in funds set up to deliver discounted rent homes.

A 🧵on why this is needed:

Full report available here:
www.global-counsel.com/insights/rep...

This is not a replacement for grant funding.

The model works for affordable rent homes for those on middle incomes.

This means more money from programmes like the Affordable Homes can be targeted on social rent – increasing housebuilding and overall affordability (12/12)

Greater Manchester has also recently established similar approach to invest in housing for key workers.

💡The opportunity now is for the govt to scale this up to a national approach to ramp up housebuilding (11/12)

This model has been used in Scotland

✅Every £1 govt invested has brought in £3-4 of private investment

✅1,200 homes will be built

✅Scot govt is expected to have loan paid back over 25yrs

✅Scottish National Investment Bank will make a positive return on investment (10/12)

Under the fiscal rules, this kind of investment would be roughly FISCALLY NEUTRAL as the value of the projects would be counted as well as the cost.

The only cost would be on the discount offered on the loan vs HMT’s borrowing costs (9/12)

To do this, Homes England should be given a “National Affordable Housing Bank” role:

With funding to invest in affordable housing funds if they can demonstrate they will deliver certain levels of affordable homes and can leverage wider private investment into projects (8/12)

🪙The govt should use this change to invest in funds set up to deliver affordable housing at a low fiscal cost.

Using low-interest loans can turn market-rate rental housing into affordable rent.

Equity investment can attract private investment, incl from pension funds (7/12)

However, at the Autumn Budget the government changed how it measures debt:

It now uses “Net Financial Debt” which considers the value of government financial investments as well as their cost (6/12)

At the Spending Review the govt needs to consider how to target funding to boost housebuilding.

🤔BUT the Chancellor faces a particularly tough fiscal situation leaving limited room within the fiscal rules for the kind of investment needed using existing tools (5/12)

The government’s planning reforms are a great start.

Higher housing targets will increase local authority ambition and the grey belt reforms will bring more land into the system.

Yet, the government is still forecast to fall short of its 1.5 million homes target (4/12)

Housing associations face acute challenges.

High construction costs and new government safety/efficiency standards have required substantial investment in existing stock.

Many have had to halt their new build programmes, resulting in the largest fall in starts since 1978 (3/12)

Housebuilding rates are at the lowest levels since the pandemic, due to high interest rates and increased borrowing costs.

40% fewer projects were started last year than the year before – with a similar number now as after the financial crisis (2/12)

🚨New report with @homesfornorth calls on the government to adopt a novel approach to affordable housing investment:

Giving Homes England a ‘National Affordable Housing Bank’ role to invest alongside the private sector in funds set up to deliver discounted rent homes.

A 🧵on why this is needed:

Very excited to be working with @davidlawrenceuk.bsky.social @jujulemons.bsky.social and team to make the progressive case for growth as a fellow at the new Centre for British Progress @britishprogress.bsky.social

NEW: updated long-run gap in voting between young men and women in Germany:

Gender divide continues to widen, but contrary to what is often assumed, young men continue to vote roughly in line with the overall population, while young women have swung sharply left.

www.ft.com/content/29fd...

Screengrab from Guardian reading: Investment in UK’s crumbling public services is pro-growth, says pensions minister Exclusive: Torsten Bell defends Labour’s spending plans, saying ‘the status quo is economically and morally bankrupt’

We will never have a strong economy unless we invest seriously in our public services. When we are in unwell, poorly educated, or living in precarious, poor-quality housing, our lives suffer, our communities suffer - and we are less productive.

Great to see increased weight put on affordability in latest tweaks to housing need formula - will direct house building to where it’s needed most.

Changes at regional level vs method consulted on are here.

Main point is that target is 9,000 higher in London and SE.