@andrewwneal
Professor of International Security at the University of Edinburgh Creator of the National Security and Defence Documents Dataset Also: critical security studies, emergency powers, parliaments, UK, Scotland, Australia, undersea infrastructure
Several academics at a desk in discussion
Group of academics around an oval table in discussion
We kicked off this semester's programme with a fascinating discussion of @laurenrogers.bsky.social paper on ontological security and discourses of state 'loneliness'
About time too! Ireland represents a serious gap in European defences. As a tech hub and key node in the transatlantic data cable network, its critical maritime infrastructure protection capabilities have been severely lacking.
share.google/TEKggRQNEHwC...
8/9
Thanks to the Edinburgh-Copenhagen Strategic Partnership Award & Velux Foundation for funding, and to collaborators: @cbueger.bsky.social, @edmundsprof.bsky.social, @tobiasliebetrau.bsky.social, Ronan Bolton, Stuart Haszeldine, Emily Holland, Sergiu Mitrescu & Frank Sill Torres.
#OpenAccess
7/9
But unlike the traditional state-vs-state dynamic, these dilemmas play out across private operators, insurers, regulators & overlapping legal regimes, with stakes extending beyond national security to the viability of the green transition.
#EnergyTransition #BalticSea
6/9
Like the classic security dilemma—where one state's defensive measures provoke insecurity in others—these share a core paradox: efforts to make something more secure can end up making it less so.
#SecurityDilemma #IRTheory
5/9
4️⃣ The securitisation dilemma: talking up threats mobilises resources but simultaneously advertises vulnerabilities to adversaries.
#Securitisation #InternationalRelations
4/9
3️⃣ The riskification dilemma: amplifying perceptions of risk through insurance markets and public debate can drive up costs and deter the very investment needed for the green transition.
#GreenTransition #OffshoreWind
3/9
2️⃣ The surveillance dilemma: enhanced monitoring can deter threats but risks blurring civil-military boundaries and turning civilian assets into military targets.
#SecurityStudies
2/9
I identify four dilemmas policy-makers and industry face in the hybrid threat environment:
1️⃣ The visibility dilemma: charting infrastructure aids legitimate users but also potential saboteurs.
#HybridThreats #NordStream #MaritimeSecurity #CriticalInfrastructure
1/9
New article out in International Affairs! 'After Nord Stream: four security dilemmas in critical maritime infrastructure protection' – open access.
How do efforts to protect pipelines, cables & wind farms paradoxically create new vulnerabilities?
🔗 academic.oup.com/ia/advance-a...
Apart from the silly rightwing quips by the author, this is a fascinating strategic analysis.
'Putin is losing the war, so prepare for escalation' share.google/0UCU79em6QFx...
Hear me now! Well, soon...
Going to Salzburg to talk about Large Language Model research in IR was fun!
Analysis is based on sentence-level semantic search of inductively-discovered threat topic groups, filtered to include the word 'threat'. Data sourced from the Edinburgh National Security and Defence Documents dataset. datashare.ed.ac.uk/handle/10283...
State-sponsored threats:
Both espionage and sabotage emerge as prominent concerns in 2025—espionage doubling from the 2020-2023 baseline whilst sabotage appears as an entirely new threat category—reflecting intensified state competition and the targeting of critical national infrastructure.
Missile threat salience rose 90% in 2025, likely driven by proliferation of advanced ballistic and hypersonic capabilities amongst adversarial states and the erosion of traditional arms control frameworks.
Hybrid warfare salience increased 67% by 2025, indicating growing governmental concern over coordinated grey-zone operations that blur the boundaries between peace and conflict through disinformation, cyberattacks, and economic coercion.
AI and emerging technologies:
Artificial intelligence appears as a discrete security threat for the first time in 2025, marking official recognition of AI's dual-use potential and autonomous systems vulnerabilities in an increasingly technology-dependent security landscape.
Military/Traditional Threats:
Military threats peaked early (2002-2003) and have maintained consistent but lower-level attention, with recent uptick in 2025, reflecting renewed conventional security concerns.
Climate: emerging priority
Climate-related security concerns were absent from early documents but emerged in 2009 and peaked in 2020. Notably, explicit mention climate threats have disappeared entirely from 2025 documents, suggesting a possible shift in framing or priorities.
Nuclear: persistent concern
Nuclear threats have maintained steady relevance throughout the period, with notable spikes in 2008 and consistent presence in recent documents.
Cyber: rise and plateau
Cyber threats first gained significant attention in 2009 and peaked in 2015. Unlike terrorism, cyber threats have remained consistently present but at lower levels recently.
Terrorism: declining
Terrorism emerged as the primary security concern post-9/11, peaking during 2008-2009 and maintaining high levels through to 2018. However, there's been a marked decline in recent years.
In response to the new UK National Security Strategy and SDR, here's my analysis of changing threat topics in UK national security and defence documents since 1998.
@uoe-sps.bsky.social @scga.bsky.social @rethinkingsecurity.bsky.social @chathamhouse.org @rusi.bsky.social @edinburghpir.bsky.social
My chapter "NATO accession, democratization, and security sector reform" is out! I examine SSR & democratisation in CEE, highlighting how historical positionality shapes understanding.
Explore the book (ed. @tbonacker.bsky.social): edin.ac/3FOOB4c
#SecurityStudies #Democratisation #PoliticalScience
Happy to win this little internal prize for my National Security and Defence Documents Dataset (1987-2024) 😊
datashare.ed.ac.uk/handle/10283...
🤣
'You could go off to the Shetlands with a shovel and cut off the internet to the Faroe Islands fairly easily if you wanted to'
I somehow managed to say this BBC Radio Scotland. I hope nobody gets any ideas 😂
They don't call me Professor of International Security for nothing you know.
Lord Robertson, former head of NATO, was a highlight, with his Scottish raconteur style. Also my first time seeing a PM up close. Pro-Palestinian protesters held a diligent presence outside, good for them. I spoke on a great mixed panel on energy security.
A fascinating few days at the London Defence Conference. Quite an eye opening range of views from a mixed defence industry/policy/academic crowd, very hawkish at times (perhaps unsurprisingly). I had to remind myself that it's just one sector among many.