A HUGE opening night for the 2026 primary season is over, and The Downballot has a fresh rundown of an evening that saw James Talarico win the Dem nod for Texas' U.S. Senate seat, GOP Rep. Dan Crenshaw become the first member of Congress to lose reelection, a Dem pickup in Arkansas, and a lot more.
JUST IN: Democrat Alex Holladay has flipped a GOP-held seat in *Arkansas*.
Republican Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders tried hard to delay this race and wanted the seat to stay vacant for 8+ months, but the courts told her to hold it today. If she was worried, she was right to be.
Our full recap:
As you hunker down for primary night—the first polls start closing in a couple of hours—be sure to get up to speed on all the critical races with our comprehensive guide. We've previewed 40 different contests!
The Downballot Announces It Never Teaming Up With Gambling Sites
We've got previews of *forty* different major elections taking place tomorrow. This is a post you definitely won't want to miss out on.
The 2026 primary season is here, and so is The Downballot's very first primary preview of the cycle! We have our big rundown of what to watch in Texas, North Carolina, and Arkansas.
Something really strange just happened in #NC04: A TV station took down an ad from a candidate. Federal law has been very clear for a very long time that this isn't allowed.
It all goes back to the New Deal, the 1956 race for #NDSen, and an alleged communist plot. Our deep dive →
One of the West Wing's lasting legacies is Bruno Gianelli's rant about how Democrats respond to GOP extremism by rolling up and saying, "Please. Don't. Hurt. Me."
When Ds are told to not talk about something like trans rights because of the polls, it’s “Please. Don't. Hurt. Me” politics in action.
CBS TAKES DOWN REP. FOUSHEE’S AD ATTACKING NIDA ALLAM FOR FALSEHOODS Allam sent cease and desist letter to Foushee campaign & local TV stations DURHAM, NC — After County Commissioner Nida Allam’s campaign for Congress sent a cease and desist letter to Rep. Valerie Foushee’s campaign and local TV stations for airing an ad with false and defamatory statements, CBS 17, serving Raleigh-Durham, agreed to take the ad down immediately. The ad, paid for by Foushee’s campaign for Congress and not any independent expenditure, falsely claimed that Commissioner Allam had not filed a personal financial disclosure despite it being filed and available to view here before the ad aired. “I am glad our district’s news stations will not sit idly by and air blatant lies and falsehoods against our campaign in the final week of this election,” said Commissioner Allam. “It’s unfortunate that the incumbent’s campaign felt the need to resort to dishonesty to win votes in this final stretch of our primary. My filing looks like so many of the residents of this district, straddled by student loan debt and trying to afford my family’s home. If you want to see something really scary, just look at our incumbent’s most recent 48-hour donation report, with corporate PAC donations from Big Tech ICE collaborators like Google and forever chemical polluters 3M.”
This is very strange. Broadcast TV stations cannot reject or censor ads from federal candidates, even if they think they might be defamatory. However, a local CBS station in North Carolina seems to have pulled an ad from Rep. Valerie Foushee after a complaint by her primary opponent.
The new UT/TX Politics Project poll does not meet at least two of our rules for reporting polls:
1) It was in the field for 15 days. The maximum we allow is an already-long 14.
2) It didn't allow respondents to say they're undecided.
There's another concern as well.
In a classic Florida story, this special election was both caused by *and* delayed by Ron DeSantis, who tapped a loyalist despised by the House GOP for a local post in Palm Beach County.
Then he refused to call an election until the Dem pictured below, Emily Gregory, sued. Now it's on for March 24.
Confident that in the more than 20 year history of the Swing State Project/Daily Kos Elections/The Downballot, we have never written about hip-hop as much as we have in today's Morning Digest.
Everyone used to understand that, when Trump issued an endorsement to a single candidate, anyone who didn’t receive his blessing was out of luck. But even Trump these days isn't immune to pressure campaigns aimed at getting him to extend his "complete and total endorsement" to a second choice.
Wealthy businesswoman Karrin Taylor Robson announced on Thursday that she was dropping out of the Republican primary to take on Democratic Rep. Katie Hobbs, a decision that showcased the limits of Donald Trump’s power in an unexpected way. Robson, whose exit came exactly one year to the day that she first launched her campaign, had in fact earned Trump’s backing even before she entered the race. But Trump’s pre-endorsement—at a Turning Point USA event just before Christmas in 2024—went over very poorly with the MAGA base. Far-right fanatics exploded in anger, though they largely blamed Trump’s advisors rather than MAGA’s master. Among the detractors was Sen. Jake Hoffman, who said that Trump “should fire whichever executive consultant or staffer told him to endorse the UniParty McCain network candidate for Arizona governor.” Hoffman, the chair of the state’s branch of the nihilistic Freedom Caucus, added that Robson lost the 2022 primary for governor because “Arizona doesn’t want her open borders, pro-amnesty liberal policies.” He added, “KTR is the Swamp.”
Donald Trump is widely viewed as a titanic power in GOP politics—and he usually is. But wealthy businesswoman Karrin Taylor Robson's decision to drop her bid for #AZGov was a real case of the tail wagging the dog, as we explain in today's newsletter. More here: www.the-downballot.com/p/morning-di...
Final result in OK is 64-36 GOP win *BUT* this was a Trump+58 seat, so that's a 29-point overperformance for Dems. Also two smaller overperformances in deep-blue VA districts—but it's usually hard to run up the score in a lopsided district.
Our Big Board: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
"They're going to put ICE at the polls in the midterms!"
Cool, but why aren't they doing it now? Like there are elections happening all the time. Some of which are big deals, like the one for the Wisconsin Supreme Court and the NYC mayoral election. Why is Trump not deploying ICE for those?
Much of political coverage still insists Trump may be unpopular, but the Democratic brand is so bad it might be a wash. But here we see Democrats scoring huge wins in red Southern districts ...
"Since Trump returned to the White House, Democrats have picked up eight Republican-controlled districts through special elections, as well as 18 seats in New Jersey and Virginia during those states’ regularly scheduled contests last November. Republicans have flipped none."
Most of my experience watching Louisiana politics has been seeing Democrats lose ground on Trump turf. Not tonight!
When I talk about the margin bros, it's not just mildly pejorative.
To anyone laid off from the Post today, we are hiring:
I read a ton of election news every day and can say with certainty that Patrick Svitek is one of the best reporters out there. To quote Jay Landsman from The Wire: "I don't say that about many people. Even when they're here on the felt, I don't give that one up unless it happens to be true."
Patrick Svitek @PatrickSvitek I was laid off today from the Washington Post’s campaigns team covering the midterms and 2028. I hear this is an important election year — and I want to cover it aggressively. If you’d like to work together, my DMs are open and you can email me at patrick.svitek@gmail.com. 11:33 AM · Feb 4, 2026 ·Twitter Web App
This is just awful news. Patrick is one of the best reporters out there, and we relied on his work constantly, including his reporting for the Texas Tribune before he went to WaPo. We would hire him if only we could. x.com/PatrickSvite...
Noah is a friend of a friend. Help get him home!
What would happen if Trump tried to send troops to disrupt the midterms? Undaunted voters in the Twin Cities just gave us an answer: It could backfire very, very badly.
New from The Downballot: A wild overperformance in St. Paul shows Minnesotans will "crawl over broken glass" to vote—despite ICE.
If James did seek reelection to the House after being bullied out of the governor's race, I hope Democrats ask, "How can John James stand up for Michigan when he can't even stand up for himself?"
Sending thoughts and prayers to everyone employed or represented or by Brad Finstad this morning.
