Great piece today by @samfr.bsky.social today on how progressives need to ‘pick fights’ to cut through in today’s attention economy.
Our recent piece on “a war on bills” shows what this could look like for the cost of living.
www.ippr.org/articles/a-w...
The BBC is facing a series of lose-lose choices. Partner with Big Tech and risk compromising what makes it unique. Or resist and fail to reach the audiences it exists to serve. @sofiahewson.bsky.social and I consider how Charter Renewal can help change this. 1/5
If price shocks are temporary, there is a strong case for fiscal policy to ease their impact. As Isabella’s work shows: this can avoid second round effects which can be costlier than the price of the intervention.
If geopolitics triggers another energy price shock, relying on interest rates alone to bring down inflation could leave the economy “too cold for too long”. @theguardian.com's @guardianheather.bsky.social cites @josephevans.bsky.social & @carsjung.bsky.social 👇 www.theguardian.com/business/202...
Well, with inflation coming down over the last two years, monetary policy (real interest rate) has actually become more restrictive. I’d just gently push against the overwhelming sense that eNICs was somehow the most consequential macro policy of this government. People attribute way too much to it
I’m amazed how very tight monetary policy - the aim of which literally is to slow the economy and raise unemployment - does not feature in your analysis. eNICs sure had a micro impact, but macroeconomics is much more important.
New forecast: Over the next 4 years, the Treasury will be transferring £18 billion per year to reimburse the Bank of England for its losses from QE. Down slightly but still huge. Neither the ECB nor the Fed do this. Undoing this could free up £5bn per year for the rest of this parliament.
If we get a sustained energy price shock, the government should learn the lessons from the past and act early, to put a lid on inflation. See below 4 policy areas to start 👇
Good news for wages: OBR expects economic growth to be driven relatively more by productivity increases & investment, and less reliant on low wage labour.
Obviously it's very early days, but will be key to use fiscal tools as much as possible to avoid (temporary) inflation shocks from global energy, if possible. We've seen elsewhere that this can pay off if the shocks are temporary.
UK - heading for another energy induced CoL shock? Maybe but not huge 🤞
1) It's at the moment an oil price issue not yet gas. We'll pay more at the pump. ~2/3 of UK oil comes from US/Norway, more expensive but not threatened.
2) Gas prices don't really track oil. 40% of UK gas is imported...
allllll together now:
BAN THE PERVERT GLASSES
NEW: The policies of today will shape AI tools of the future. Let's make sure it improves - not destroys - our news environment. 👇
AI is transforming our information environment - but is it reliably delivering news content to the public?
We tested four AI tools to find out and our results reveal worrying trends:
Full report by @roapowell.bsky.social and me:
ippr-org.files.svdcdn.com/production/D...
New report: AI is certain to transform the way we consume news. If we do nothing it could turn it into slop. We need policy action now, to ensure AI improves news & the public sphere.
Guardian coverage: www.theguardian.com/technology/2...
Really excited to see the government announcing a cap on ground rents. As recommended in @samalvis.bsky.social and my "war on bills" piece. As we argue, the government should leave no stone on unturned to lower the cost of living in ways that people can feel.
www.ippr.org/articles/a-w...
Thanks, Andy. Is there a link to their note?
Ah ok makes sense - maybe I misremembered from this:
www.oecd.org/content/dam/...
Isn’t upward mobility usually used as a term that indicates change in people’s relative rank in the income distribution? That’s how eg the OECD uses the term. Eg you could earn more than your parents and still be in the same decile as them.
The Bank of England must pull its weight, and be more open about the impact of its active QT on yields.
www.ft.com/content/4137...
This piece is billed as ‘father of girls thinks misogyny lessons are unnecessary’ but right at the end he actually asks the girls he is confidently speaking on behalf of and they…disagree. Amazing. www.thetimes.com/life-style/p...
All you need to know about today’s Bank of England decision and the road ahead 👇
Good news - CPI inflation drops to 3.2% in Nov. We’ve hit the level the Bank of England didn’t expect until March 2026, putting us four months ahead of their schedule.
Prices are actually falling month-on-month (-0.2%), led by visible items: 🍔 Food -0.2% 🍺 Alcohol -0.4%.
For rigorous analysis of the UK macro economy, great charts, and policy options for progressive change - follow my brilliant colleague @willellisecon.bsky.social 👇
Why are UK borrowing costs so high when our debt and deficit numbers look better than others? In a @ippr.org paper, @carsjung.bsky.social and I argue the problem is less “fundamentals” and more a bad equilibrium of market vibes: www.ippr.org/articles/rul.... Short thread. 🧵
Slightly surprised the @economist.com joins the cakeists here - arguing for *both* fewer tax increases and much bigger headroom at this autumn budget.
Agree with other bits of the article though - eg call for more pro-growth tax reform.
www.economist.com/britain/2025...
Yes fair. But what else have we got if not think pieces? :)
I think this won’t age well. Hard to see how AI won’t be transformative. Not quite sure if think pieces are the right way to prepare. But prepare we must. Maybe more think pieces about pandemics in 2015 would’ve helped us later on.
Really great to see the government taking action on the excessive cost of infant formula. As we recommended in our piece calling for a 'war on bills'!
www.gov.uk/government/n...
www.ippr.org/articles/a-w...
