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10.03.2026 18:19
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And while Jared Moskowitz has signaled support for the war on Iran, FL-23 Democrats oppose military strikes by a 50-point margin.
On the issues, Moskowitz is severely out of step with FL-23 voters. *63%* of Democratic voters support reducing military aid to Israel, with 30% supporting a full cessation of aid.
When respondents are subsequently presented with negative biographies of both candidates, Moskowitz continues to bleed support. This indicates that he is far more vulnerable to negative campaigning than Larkin.
When respondents are presented with positive biographies for both Moskowitz and Larkin, the situation changes dramatically. While Moskowitz keeps most of his support, almost two-thirds of undecided voters shift to Larkin.
Moskowitz wins when voters are asked who they would vote for if the election were held today. But he doesn't hit 50%— a weak position for an incumbent.
🚨 NEW POLL of Democratic primary voters in FL-23
🔹Oliver Larkin leads incumbent Jared Moskowitz 49-36 after positive bios
🔹 63% of voters want to end or reduce military aid to Israel
🔹 Voters oppose strikes on Iran by a 50-point margin
🧵Read the thread for more insights
Find more information including full crosstabs on our website:
stratpolitics.org/2025/06/afte...
In addition to the upcoming election, voters were also asked to weigh in on a hypothetical Senate election between Bronx natives and U.S. Representatives Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Ritchie Torres. Ocasio-Cortez secures 58%, compared to Torres’ 23%.
After hearing the facts, voters are strongly against Andrew Cuomo’s taxpayer-funded lawsuits against over a dozen women who have accused him of sexual harassment. Only 12% of respondents support tax dollars going towards these lawsuits, while 77% oppose the practice.
Echoing a key plank of Zohran Mamdani's platform, 3/4ths of voters support freezing rent for stabilized tentants.
When asked to consider the impacts of endorsements from several political organizations on their likelihood to support a candidate, voters broke heavily in favor of the left-wing DSA (+24%) and WFP (+42%). The zionist AIPAC did not fare as well (-5%).
Beyond attractiveness, voters have a far more favorable general view of Mamdani (+44%) than Cuomo (+12%). Additionally, 14% of voters still don’t know enough about Mamdani to give an opinion.
Attractiveness is a big differentiator between the two front-runners. 52% of voters rate Zohran Mamdani 7 or above on a 1-10 scale, while 58% of voters rate Andrew Cuomo 5 or lower.
AFTER HEATED SECOND DEBATE AND SUPERPAC ATTACKS, MAMDANI AND CUOMO RACE TO STATISTICAL TIE
Read the thread for more insights from our new poll with @dreamfornyc.bsky.social 🧵
We are grateful for the interest in our first published survey and look forward to conducting more in the near future. But polling costs money, and we’re powered by small donations from everyday people, not big grants. Support our work and help us fund more surveys: www.patreon.com/StratPolitics
CORRECTION: The second and third graphics included mistakenly swapped somewhat negative and strong negative bars. Corrected graphics below:
We use small donations from everyday people, not big grants from foundations, to power our work. Support our research and help us fund more surveys: www.patreon.com/StratPolitics
See the full press release, methodology, and crosstabs on our website: stratpolitics.org/2024/12/unit...
White Americans view Mangione by far the least favorably, with only 14% having a positive opinion of him, compared to 28% of Hispanic Americans and 31% of Black Americans.
Those who have been denied care by their health insurance provider were over three times more likely (33%) to view Mangione favorably than those who have not (9%).
More insights from our poll, conducted on December 11 with a sample size of 455 U.S. adults:
Respondents under 45 or with a history of denied insurance claims were over three times as likely to view the alleged killer favorably.
BREAKING: In First Poll Released Since Killing, Young Americans Favor Luigi Mangione over UnitedHealthcare & Slain CEO Brian Thompson
Young Americans have a higher net approval of Mangione (-10%) than of Brian Thompson (-24%), UnitedHealthcare (-31%), and the health insurance industry (-34%).