"The profession can strengthen its foundations by developing cross disciplinary knowledge, real-time data sources and scenario tools to better model a more complex world of fewer constants."
Agree with this from the FT editorial, "How economists lost traction"
I would add the importance of humility
🙏for posting and Happy New Year! The IMF Database is only up to 2023, but one can check the Government Debt ↙️ vs Private Debt ↘️breakdown. Chart maps USA in Red; IND in brown; CHN in green. Private debt/GDP 2023 CHN 205%; USA 150%; IND 98%. Public debt/GDP 2023 CHN 84%; USA 123%; IND 83%.
Reminded me of this great 1971 Carpenters' classic. Or is it too obvious an allusion☺️ youtu.be/PjFoQxjgbrs
Above images are screengrabs from @willdalrymple.bsky.social talk in New Delhi based on his book 'An Empire of Ideas' #Ignition2024 www.youtube.com/live/KfIfU2r...
Evolution of Hindu-Arabic numerals. Earliest 'circular zero' so far discovered 9th Cent. Gwalior inscription ↘️ traveled to Baghdad area (E Arabic), Morocco (W Arabic);Spain & by 16th Cent., England. Critical in developing double-entry book-keeping, corporations, then European colonialism in India!🙏
Christ Driving the Moneychangers from the Temple. Rembrandt (1606-69) painted 1635.
Oops. I meant to say 'US' trade deficit with India', not 'India's trade deficit.' Apologies.
Incidentally, the Project 2025 document (on p. 772) shows a Table of 8 major US trading partners, graphing their average differential tariff with the US vs their trade deficit. India's trade deficit as of ~2019 was less than $50B but the tariff differential was in the highest bin 8%-10% 👇. 🙏
The Chart from India's Press Information Bureau citing the National Statistics Office 👇. The quarter ended September is 2Q 2024-25 since the FY starts April 1. Chart shows both GDP (left scale) and growth rate (right scale). YoY growth has declined for the third successive quarter since 4Q 2023-24.
About 65% of Nickel used is in austenitic steel, a common form of stainless steel, while about 12% is used in superalloys such as Inconel 600, used for turbine blades in jet engines as well as power generating stations. The other 23% goes into rechargeable batteries, catalysts and plating. (USGS).
US Imports of Nickel (Ni) by Country 2019-2022. 40% comes from Canada, which produces about 5% of world Nickel. The category 'Other' below could include Australia, which also produces ~5%; or Indonesia (nearly 50%) or the Philippines (about 10%) via @statista.bsky.social
Most significant change is the increase 2023 to 2024 in the US portfolio weight in CPPIB's assets: from 36% to 42% (and the decrease in Asia's 26% to 21%). Nearly as significant is the increase #PublicEquity 24% 2023 to 28% 2024. #PrivateEquity, Infrastructure, Real Estate each declined to make up.
The CPP Investment Board, of course, invests in 56 countries (as at 3/31/24). What I found really interesting is how, between 2023 and 2024, in response to geopolitical, but also macroeconomic factors, it varied its investments, both geographically 👇 and by asset class ⏬
#CanadaPensionPlan Assets past 3 years 2022, 2023, 2024 have been rising faster than projected at year-end by the #ChiefActuary of Canada [based on assets 12/31/2021]
2022 Projected $518 B; Actual $536 B.
2023 Projected $564 B; Actual $591 B.
2024 Projected $615 B; Actual $675 B (as on 9/30/2024).
Worldwide Assets Under Management AUM (by private entities) by country. #Top5 2023 2024 with forecast to 2028 via @statista.bsky.social Sheer dominance of the US: In 2024 US AUM $64.39 T = 1.97 X (UK+FR+DE+ JAP = $32.74T); projected to become by 2028 US AUM $87.35T = 2.31 X *(UK+FR+DE+JAP=37.62 T)!
I can't stress this enough.
Wordle 1,257 2/6 Amazing! (No, just me!) 😊
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RBNZ MPC reduced the Official Cash Rate by 50 bp to 4.25%, noting that economic activity in New Zealand remained subdued; output below potential, but geopolitical conditions and [international] policy uncertainty could contribute to higher GDP & inflation volatility www.rbnz.govt.nz/hub/news/202...
Panel was in September 2022; JG was then (as now) a lawyer with King & Spalding. Excerpt from his initial remarks at the panel 👇 Mary Lovely @piie.com responds.
USTR-designate Jamieson Greer: panel at World Trade Center Utah #ChinaChallengeSummit. When host-panelist Damien Ma said that Debt, [(wealth) re-] Distribution and Demographics are key constraints for the Chinese economy, JG adds a 4th D: Deteriorating foreign relations @ 35:00 youtu.be/ONNpK3QiDVA
Geographical variation of inflation within the Eurozone is actually quite considerable👇 In September 2024, Cyprus and Latvia each had 1.6%, while Belgium had the highest 4.3% and Ireland the lowest 0.0%! France, Germany and Italy had 1.4% 1.8% and 0.7%. Eurozone HICP for 09/24 is 1.7% closest to DEU
Geographical variation of inflation within the Eurozone is actually quite considerable👇 In September 2024, Cyprus and Latvia each had 1.6%, while Belgium had the highest 4.3% and Ireland the lowest 0.0%! France, Germany and Italy had 1.4% 1.8% and 0.7%. Eurozone HICP for 09/24 is 1.7% closest to DEU
In her 9/12/2024 Monetary Policy speech, ECB President Lagarde indicated that staff projections are for core inflation rate to decline to 2.3% in 2025 and 2.0% in 2026; and Eurozone GDP to grow 0.8% in 2024, 1.3 % in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026. www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_...
ECB defines 'core inflation' as y-o-y percent change in HICP 'all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco'. This is 2.7%, stable September to October; Table ☝️. Because of high weight on Energy in HICP, and significant negative impact (-4.6%), excluding Energy alone also results in 2.7%!
Finally, let us look at how inflation in France ↙️ and Italy ↘️ behaved relative to the Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) computed by Eurostat. Inflation in France peaked ~6 months later and 350 bp lower; peak Inflation in Italy coincided with Eurozone but peaked 200bp higher! 🙏
Finally, let us look at how inflation in France ↙️ and Italy ↘️ behaved relative to the Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) computed by Eurostat. Inflation in France peaked ~6 months later and 350 bp lower; peak Inflation in Italy coincided with Eurozone but peaked 200bp higher! 🙏
As we await the Eurostat inflation announcement (Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices HICP) on 11/27, the October 2024 situation👇. HICP, used by ECB to set the Deposit Facility Rate is exactly 2.0%, their #InflationTarget
! But Food inflation is 3.0%; Services inflation 4.0% and Energy (minus) -4.6%!
...being strongly correlated with Eurozone, is higher at its peak than Eurozone inflation at *its* peak (though the peaks coincide). Do goods in the German consumption basket then have longer supply chains, or a greater propensity to get marked up? LVA inflation at its peak is 2X (at ~20%) Eurozone.
So of course this is pandemic era and so, supply-shocked inflation. But since CYP inflation peak leads (i.e. comes before) the its peak in the Eurozone by 4-6 months, this would suggest (confirm?) that CYP has supply chains independent of elsewhere in the Eurozone! But German inflation, while...
