Jennifer Robson 🇨🇦

🙄

The figure shows the number of Canadian resident visitors returning to Canada from the US in each week of 2023, 2024, and 2025. Figures are in thousands of visitors. The percentage figure represents the change in 2025 relative to the average of 2023 and 2024. President Trump’s rhetoric about a possible acquisition of Canada and escalating trade tensions led to a 25% decline in Canadian visits to the US in 2025. This column uses smartphone foot-traffic data and employment records to explore how this negative demand shock affected US local labour markets, especially in the food services, retail, and leisure sectors. By mid-2025, establishments in areas with the highest share of Canadians among visitors employed roughly 6% fewer workers relative to establishments in less exposed markets, and spillover effects may imply even larger employment losses. The findings highlight a channel of harm that trade policy debates often overlook.

By mid-2025, US establishments in areas w/ the highest share of Canadians among visitors employed roughly 6% fewer workers relative to establishments in less exposed markets, w/ a 25% overall decline in Canadian visits to the US in 2025.
A Kurmann, E Lalé, J Martin
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky

Markets are *very* unhappy about developments in Iran.

Maybe, ..now just hear me out,..if you start a war without due process, that you can’t explain, where your objectives seem unclear, and contagion seems to be underway, maybe markets will see risk?
Just spitballing here…

still so cool

Nintendo Sues the U.S. Government to Get Refunds for Trump's Ridiculous Tariffs Nintendo isn't the first company to sue and it probably won't be the last.

And keeps going

Nintendo turns its legal team on Uncle Sam gizmodo.com/nintendo-sue...

wtf is this?

When we talk about Baby Boomers not getting off the stage: In 1997, the US president was born in 1946.

In 2007, the US president was born in 1946.

In 2017, the US president was born in 1946.

And next year in 2027? The US president will have been born in 1946.

worth noting…

“Affordability” is a “hoax”

Rupee falls to one-month low, equities slump as Iran war jolts markets The Indian rupee slid to its weakest level in a month and local stocks slumped on Monday as the Iran war hurt risk assets and lifted oil prices, compounding worries for India which relies on the Middle East for a substantial part of its energy imports.

Rupee falls to one-month low, equities slump as Iran war jolts markets reut.rs/4r5YHz5

The war on Iran likely brings a new oil price shock and windfall profits.

So, who stands to win?

Our research shows: Last time around (2022), the US reaped the largest fossil fuel profits of any country ($377bn). 50% went to the top 1%, only 1% to the bottom 50%. A🧵

British air base in Cyprus hit by suspected drone strike Britain's Royal Air Force base Akrotiri in Cyprus was hit by a suspected drone strike overnight, causing limited damage and no casualties, Cypriot authorities and the UK's Ministry of Defence said.

Britain's Royal Air Force base Akrotiri in Cyprus was hit by a suspected drone strike overnight, causing limited damage and no casualties, Cypriot authorities and the UK's Ministry of Defense said reut.rs/4rNRFQP

Thread

Notes on Canadian political management 'splainers by and for Carleton MPM students

Years ago, I worked with my MPM students to create this site. politicalmgt.wordpress.com
TBH, life got really busy & I let it get dormant.
I just heard through the grapevine that it might be attracting readers in some political offices as a resource for new staff. Time to update it.... #todolists

sigh…

OpenAI reaches deal to deploy AI models on U.S. Department of War classified network OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said on Friday it has reached an agreement with the U.S. Department of War to deploy its AI models on classified cloud networks.

OpenAI reaches deal to deploy AI models on U.S. Department of War classified network reut.rs/3OEiIPL

I unsubscribed from Open AI and moved over to Anthropic because I was finding the coding & dataviz outputs were much more reliable.

This just adds to their competitive advantage, IMHO.

Narrative, I’d like to introduce you to data.

not an easy question, but one worth asking

Who had Canada's Chief Trade Negotiator to the U.S. in her classroom today? Oh, and also one of Canada's top policy/political advisors?
Thank you to Janice Charette & Marci Surkes for sharing your time and insights with MPM students today. Sorry media, it was a Chatham House-style event. #cdnpoli

concepts of a plan…

And it continues

bsky.app/profile/bloo...

The performative role of women - as grateful or grieving - is really striking in this SOTU. Only the First Lady gets elevated as an agentic actor, but mainly for having become “a movie star”

Trump announces access to gov matched retirement savings for eligible workers without a pension to a max annual match of $1k

There’s something here, but the math isn’t great.

Assume $1k gov for 40 years and worker puts in at 1:1. At 4% annual return, you have $200k. Not nothing, but too small.

there is no way tariffs could replace the income tax. just not mathematically possible. www.cato.org/blog/what-sc...

He even worked in the url…

Trump Accounts!

Such a sad, twisted version of what asset-based policy has been.

Trump says flow of fentanyl is down 56% y-y.
Great, so lift the 232 tariffs

SFT > SOTU

There. I said it