@jjsteffen
Fencing #PostKeynesian | MD J.S. Research KG | Scion of #Trier | political history buff 🇬🇧🇺🇲 | Dep. Chair Dt.-Britische Gesellschaft Ruhr | probably enjoying a pipe | blog: https://jakobsteffen.substack.com/
Wherever you look, alarm bells ring about government #debt seemingly spinning out of control.
But is it really? Or might, as so often, some political agenda setting be at work here?
jakobsteffen.substack.com/p/is-governm...
#economics #PostKeynesianism #PKE #money
Fascinating symposium papers in the Review of Keynesian Economics on the matter of #hysteresis/path-dependence in #economics - Thread 🧵
https://www.elgaronline.com/view/journals/roke/11/4/roke.11.issue-4.xml
These questions about the #IndustrialRevolution as presented by Robert Tombs in his "The English and Their History" will always remain a guideline for the social sciences - since the answers to them inevitably depend on the individual theoretical approach.
#economics
Mills and Moors, by Charles Ernest Cundall, 1890-1971 (Kirklees Museums and Galleries). #NorthernArt
The notion of the state crowding out the private sector by its #deficitspending is currently trending. On my blog, I point out why it's a fallacy:
#economics #PostKeynesianism #PKE #debt #rates
jakobsteffen.substack.com/p/the-nonsen...
Inflation Drivers (At Annual Rates, Current Weights) Category % of Core Since 2/20 12m 3m 1m % Change, Annualized Services Ex Pandemic/Energy/Rent 30.4 1.47 1.46 1.40 2.53 Rent Ex Hotels 43.5 4.71 3.90 3.83 3.46 Pandemic Categories Ex Used Auto 2.5 0.35 -2.95 -13.40 -19.34 New Autos 4.6 3.45 0.25 -2.52 -3.96 Used Autos 2.5 5.02 2.79 -6.77 -7.78 Durables Ex Autos 5.8 1.83 0.49 1.50 2.59 All Other Core 10.8 0.87 0.66 0.82 1.20 Core 100.0 3.88 2.91 2.41 2.77 Ann. Contrib. (% pt) Services Ex Pandemic/Energy/Rent 30.4 0.58 0.57 0.62 1.26 Rent Ex Hotels 43.5 2.66 2.20 2.43 2.47 Pandemic Categories 2.5 0.01 -0.09 -0.49 -0.79 New Autos 4.6 0.21 0.01 -0.17 -0.30 Used Autos 2.5 0.16 0.09 -0.25 -0.32 Durables Ex Autos 5.8 0.14 0.04 0.13 0.25 All Other Core 10.8 0.12 0.09 0.13 0.21 Core 100.0 3.88 2.91 2.41 2.77
Used autos reduced core CPI by -0.3%-pt at annual rates in June. For context, Manheim's used auto price index is +19% ann. over the last three months vs +2% ann. for CPI used autos/trucks. Ex used auto, core prices up 3.1% ann., highest since the residual seasonality-impacted Jan spike to 5.5% ann.
🤩
'(...) he is an opportunist exploiting a nihilist moment of moral despair and cultural disorientation to install an anti-liberal value system that many millions perceive as a cure for nihilism itself.'
This description of Trump by Sasha Mudd is the best I've read so far.
In this ludicrous task, smart watches are perhaps even more of a pest, for they're even more difficult to ignore when they're just a quick glance away.
Thus, far from self-optimising we're increasing stress levels ever higher - and wonder why so many around us fall prey to burn-out.
/3
Constantly rattling smartphones or smart-watches divert our focus, if even for a split-second, away from the task or conversation at hand; we try to communicate with two or more people at the same time, all the time.
2/
#Sunday observation:
It would seem the purpose of all that modern communication technology is to enslave ourselves to the most irrelevant information. We expose us to a bombardment of messages clamouring for our attention real-time, even if it's only some friend passing on a not-really-funny meme
1/
Excellent analysis of the #altright trap #Tories are walking into these days by @samfr.bsky.social
#Reform #UK #Badenoch
app.prospectmagazine.co.uk/story/69424/...
#Servicepost
With #Trump's #tariffs unveiled, we're now unequivocally in the lower-left corner of this chart posted in January.
"The beginning of a productive #disagreement is #curiosity, not persuasion" - writes @adamgrant.bsky.social in Saturday's Financial Times.
Or, even more condensed: #Listening is gold, perennial talking silver.
Just realised that the author got a handle here, too; thus, separate kudos to @dandrezner.bsky.social 👏
Now he schmoozes, now he threats: We're used to Donald #Trump's erratic behaviour. But is this madman theory reloaded, and can it work?
Excellent article by Daniel Drezner in @foreignpolicy.com
https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/01/07/madman-theory-international-relations-unpredictability/
Bang-on - and accurate for centre-left parties elsewhere. If they continue to fail to act against social injustice, this will only get worse
#austerity #inequality
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/mar/28/fascism-britain-neoliberalism-opened-door-for-it-labour?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other
Elon #Musk's X is not so much about free speech - it's about unchecked power.
Government agencies' market share is the extent of their remit.
- JS
#witticism
'Funfact': In its outlook on global growth published just today, the OECD projects real GDP growth of some 1.1 per cent for Germany in 2026 - hardly the kind of boom investors seem to anticipate.
https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/oecd-economic-outlook-interim-report-march-2025_89af4857-en.html
The ludicrous part, of course, is that beyond the exuberance, the trade wars broached by the Trump administration are about to get much worse before they might get less intense. The spending programme, by contrast, will be extended over 12 years - hardly a massive, short-term impulse.
/2
This is almost ludicrous - yet exactly what #Keynes meant with his famous 'animal spirits': German investor sentiment skyrockets past expectations on the massive deficit spending programme to be passed by the #Bundestag today.
1/
https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/zew-economic-sentiment-index
#Fashion advice:
Beautiful, charismatic pocket handkerchiefs flourish from the pocket like a flower; aggressive, uniform-like ones take the angular form popular today.
What a marvel of a metaphor (and spot-on into the addition):
'Trump is so obsessed with free riders, he forgets that it has been in the US interest to drive the bus.'
- Joseph Nye in the @financialtimes.com of March 8th
Exactly! Together with Starmer's newly-found purpose as co-leader of a self-reliant Europe taking care of Ukraine, this is the moment to confront the public with the uncomfortable things to come - and I believe the public will be far more understanding than many might think.
Prominent mit ihren Werken u.a. auch am Tisch vertreten: @carlomasala1.bsky.social und Sönke Neitzel.
Die neue Episode meines Podcasts mit Thomas ist da 📯
Dieses Mal sprechen wir über die ambivalentr dt. Haltung zur #Sicherheitspolitik durch die Jahrzehnte - und warum sie so besonders erschüttert worden ist.
#Zeitenwende
https://www.buzzsprout.com/1549213/episodes/16676880
Very thought-provoking blog post by Dan on a highly controversial subject (for full disclosure: I tend to side with him). This is a key part of where '#woke' (for want of a better label) went into self-destruction mode.
#philosophy
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/388999063_Interest_rate_and_business_cycle_theory_reloaded_The_multi-faceted_nature_of_interest_rates
Looking for some brain fodder on your Sunday?
Here, I demonstrate the compatibility of Knut #Wicksell and J.M. #Keynes, underlining there are two fundamentally different types of interest #rates, the interaction of which is essential for macro-#economics analysis as well as policy.