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Dom White

@domw

Chief economist at Absolute Strategy Research in London. But all of the nonsense I spout on here is mine and mine alone. RTs are not endorsements unless they are.

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11.05.2023
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Latest posts by Dom White @domw

Had a go on one of those realistic F1 simulators a while back. It was impossible. Driving down a straight, slight adjustment of the steering wheel and the car was in a spin.

10.03.2026 16:26 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

I'm hoping my skills might still be worth something too! πŸ˜†

10.03.2026 16:17 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Possibly of interest to @duncanweldon.bsky.social given how you were saying you've been using AI tools.

10.03.2026 16:10 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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This looks like it could be a really handy tool.

www.imf.org/en/publicati...

10.03.2026 16:10 πŸ‘ 53 πŸ” 14 πŸ’¬ 4 πŸ“Œ 4

Y'know what, I'm gonna take a wild guess that it's the one on the top left.

10.03.2026 13:06 πŸ‘ 11 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
Preview
a group of men are sitting around a table with one of them saying one of us ! ALT: a group of men are sitting around a table with one of them saying one of us !

Never knew you were a centrist dad, Katie.

10.03.2026 13:00 πŸ‘ 5 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

However you interpreted last week's employment report, a lot of other labour market data look consistent with this profile of gradual improvement since ~ last autumn.

10.03.2026 12:29 πŸ‘ 5 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Is it just me, or were expectations for tax refunds more like 20-30% above last year's levels?

10.03.2026 11:56 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

I'm very jealous!

10.03.2026 10:19 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

NB: we still have nearly three years of this to go.

10.03.2026 09:36 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 1

Doing my job has become almost impossible at times over the last year with DJT as president and, I don't know, I would've thought that might affect some people's willingness to take risk.

10.03.2026 09:36 πŸ‘ 14 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 8

Translation: could go down, could go up.

09.03.2026 18:48 πŸ‘ 16 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 0

I see Tony Blair hasn’t managed to sway public opinion…

09.03.2026 18:00 πŸ‘ 16 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 4 πŸ“Œ 0

Just received the same email (I assume). Can’t remember getting anything like that from them previously and can’t help but think there’s a potential Streisand Effect here.

09.03.2026 17:57 πŸ‘ 5 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Seems to be a lot of anchoring around 2022 going on

09.03.2026 16:29 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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BuT rEneWaBleS cOsT tOO muCH AnD ARe BaD fOR tHe eCoNOmY

www.imf.org/en/publicati...

09.03.2026 16:16 πŸ‘ 15 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

We’re sacrificing the cup to focus on the league.

06.03.2026 21:49 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Next time you see him, would you please do that - just for me?

06.03.2026 16:55 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Conversation on stablecoins with @izakaminska.bsky.social and @bhgreeley.bsky.social during last week’s money view symposium is up in YouTube now

Cc: @domw.bsky.social

06.03.2026 15:26 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 1

Ah, great. Thanks IΓ±aki! I will watch later on with interest.

06.03.2026 15:37 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Probably ADHD

06.03.2026 14:51 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Bessent - would trade dog
Leavitt - would claim dog is not dead when it is

06.03.2026 14:10 πŸ‘ 10 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

I think it probably will. But I'm assuming that, because they had a much smaller effect on unemployment than they did employment and participation, that this picture won't be too badly affected.

06.03.2026 14:08 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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Due to new population controls. Without them, the participation rate would've moved slightly higher.

06.03.2026 14:04 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Yeah, the payroll data don't look great. But a two-month average of +17k probably isn't far off the breakeven jobs growth rate.

06.03.2026 14:00 πŸ‘ 5 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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A more serious take: the data don't look quite as bad as some of the headlines suggest. Most of the rise in unemployment was due to re-entrants to the labour market (a function of the low hiring rate rather than layoffs). And the number working part-time for economic reasons fell.

06.03.2026 13:58 πŸ‘ 34 πŸ” 6 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 1
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I've been led to believe that jobs in education and healthcare don't count, and since they account for almost all of the swing in total non-farm payrolls, we can write these data off ... right?

06.03.2026 13:47 πŸ‘ 10 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Well that's just what the bond market needed

06.03.2026 13:30 πŸ‘ 11 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Oh, in that case I'll just say industrials.

06.03.2026 11:39 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Construction?

06.03.2026 11:36 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0