Amy J. Nelson

This image is a promotional poster for an event by New America, featuring W.J. Hennigan and Amy J. Nelson. It includes their photos and mentions a discussion titled "When Nuclear Danger Becomes Background Noise." The event is scheduled for March 4th, at 12 pm ET, online.

Join @wjhenn.bsky.social of @nytopinion.nytimes.com and New America's @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social for a virtual conversation about nuclear risk and threat complacency.

📅 Join us: March 4 at 12 pm ET https://go.newamerica.org/when-nuclear-danger-becomes-noise-5

When Force Replaces Frameworks: What Iran Signals About the Future of Arms Control

When agreements erode, force replaces diplomacy.
The U.S. operation in Iran is a signal about what comes after limits and frameworks in the nuclear order. My thoughts below.

www.newamerica.org/future-secur...

As tensions escalate again around Iran and the risk of wider regional conflict grows, nuclear danger is back in the headlines. It is also increasingly normalized.

Join us at New America to discuss this phenomenon, our recent report on the topic, and hear from @nytimes.com's @wjhenn.bsky.social

‘To be free, we have to be feared,’ Macron says in keynote nuclear speech France will increase its nuclear warheads for the first time in decades, French President Emmanuel Macron announced on Monday, saying that “to be free, we have to be feared”. Macron delivered the upda...

As arms control erodes, everyone talks about stability. But instead of new treaties, we are getting posture tweaks and doctrinal shifts.

France isn't breaking with restraint. It’s adjusting to a thinner, more uncertain environment.

f24.my/Bm5P.BS

Where is the off-ramp here?

What does “success” mean in practical terms, and how will anyone know if it’s been achieved?

If there are no clear limits or benchmarks, strikes risk becoming open-ended by default.

I've made a new starter pack of people to follow for news and commentary on Iran.

Got the idea from a request by @kakape.bsky.social

Future-Proofing U.S. Nuclear Policy: Forecasting Security Outcomes of the Nuclear-Armed Sea-Launched Cruise Missile (SLCM-N) Analysis of SLCM-N shows its strategic value depends primarily on future conditions—not on the system itself.

SLCM-N is moving ahead.

What matters is the world it enters in 2035.

New report: “Future-Proofing U.S. Nuclear Policy.” Deterrence will depend less on the missile than the strategy around it.

@newamerica.org rg Future Security Scenarios Lab:
www.newamerica.org/future-secur...

On March 4, grantee @newamerica.org is hosting a virtual conversation on how nuclear danger is understood & reported, also highlighting a new report by @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social. Register ⬇️
https://loom.ly/K2M7Qy0

Well done and congrats!

After New START: The Case for Disciplined Ambiguity With New START expired, stability depends less on transparency and more on managed uncertainty.

After New START, stability will depend less on treaties and more on strategy.

Out today: I argue for “disciplined ambiguity” in a post-treaty environment: not secrecy for its own sake, deliberate choices about what to clarify, what to withhold, and how signals shape escalation risk.

bit.ly/4bcgKOn

Join us March 4 with @wjhenn.bsky.social for a conversation on how the public understands, interprets, and responds to nuclear risk.

What happens when nuclear warnings become routine?

Join @newamerica.org for a conversation on how repeated signals of danger are interpreted, communicated, and acted on in today’s policy environment.

With @wjhenn.bsky.social and opening remarks by Anne-Marie Slaughter.

Register: bit.ly/4axpuzl

Nuclear debates persist because we disagree not only on policy, but on how to judge risk and evidence under uncertainty.

Appreciate @ploughshares.bsky.social highlighting my @foreignpolicy.com piece on the epistemic divide shaping nuclear policy.

Read more: loom.ly/IcwWEpA

To prevent Iran's nuclear breakout, Trump must confront a messy reality: diplomacy To curb Iran's nuclear ambitions before it is too late, the Trump administration has no choice but to learn the art of strategic compromise.

Iran’s nuclear file is heating up again amid renewed talks and military buildup.

From my 2025 @thebulletin.org piece: There's no clean military solution. Strikes may buy time, but risk escalation and reduced transparency. Goal is to extend warning time before crisis narrows choices. bit.ly/4aMhAky

Appreciate @ploughshares.bsky.social lifting up our @newamerica.org report.

Nuclear risk is increasing. Deterrence is under strain, arms control is thinner, and ambiguity is growing.

Why, then, does the danger feel distant? Our report analyzes the mechanisms that normalize escalating risk.

Grateful to be included in this roundup from @newamerica.org

My contribution to @thebulletin.org examines what managing nuclear risk requires after New START: transparency, restraint, and discipline function as guardrails in a more fragile nuclear order.

The experts comment: New START expires, bringing both risks and opportunities Experts share their concern about the no-rules, no-inspections period that opens when New START expires on Thursday. They also see an opportunity to adapt arms control to a multipolar world.

🚨JUST IN: Experts share their concern about the no-rules, no-inspections period that opens when New START expires on Thursday. They also see an opportunity to adapt arms control to a multipolar world.

My round-up👇 - 1/n

(More will be added over the next few days.)

#NewSTART #armscontrol #nukesky

This points to 1 of 2 things: either the bureaucracy is out of step with the informal, fast-moving negotiations in Abu Dhabi, or the mixed messaging is designed to create ambiguity and keep Russia guessing. Both underscore how stability is now being managed through improvisation.

A quiet but consequential signal: New START principles being kept alive, at least temporarily.

Six more months of compliance buys time, but also underscores how improvised arms control has become, reportedly brokered through Abu Dhabi rather than formal channels.

New START can’t be extended anyway - of course the talks are about a new agreement.

The analysis draws on research from my forthcoming book, The Arms Control Paradox (@stanfordpress.bsky.social), which explores arms control as a system for managing uncertainty.

The experts comment: New START expires, bringing both risks and opportunities Experts share their concern about the no-rules, no-inspections period that opens when New START expires on Thursday. They also see an opportunity to adapt arms control to a multipolar world.

Today, New START expires without replacement, ending the U.S.–Russia strategic nuclear arms treaty era — not arms control itself.

In @thebulletin.org I examine why managing uncertainty, rather than restoring past models, must now be a priority.

thebulletin.org/2026/02/the-...

Arms control and the management of uncertainty after New START Amy Nelson, a senior fellow at New America, explains that minimal deterrence may still be possible in a multipolar world, but only if defined functionally rather than numerically.

Amy Nelson (@amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social), a senior fellow at @newamerica.org, explains that minimal deterrence may still be possible in a multipolar world, but only if defined functionally rather than numerically.

- 3/n

#NewSTART #armscontrol #nukesky

With New START expiring later this week, I'm resharing my @poni.csis.org conversation on The Negotiator Files with Rose Gottemoeller, the chief U.S. negotiator of the treaty, on how it was negotiated, ratified, and what its legacy means for #armscontrol today

Book cover for The Arms Control Paradox: Managing Uncertainty in an Insecure World by [Author Name]. The title appears in large text at the top, with the subtitle below. The design is minimalist, using a restrained color palette and abstract graphic elements that suggest tension and balance. The publisher, Stanford University Press, is listed at the bottom.

Excited to share the cover of my forthcoming book, The Arms Control Paradox, out with @stanfordpress.bsky.social in Sept 2026.

It examines why #armscontrol works when it manages uncertainty—and why that task has become harder.

#InternationalRelations #DecisionTheory

Promotional graphic for "The Thread" featuring a quote: "The most effective nuclear storytelling in the past didn't isolate the bomb; it connected nuclear weapons to questions of power, technology, and survival." The design includes white text on a dark background with abstract line art.

Two people discussing on stage under the title 'A House of Dynamite' at a Netflix event.

Is A House of Dynamite “realistic”? That’s the wrong question.

@amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social of @newamerica.org argues what matters is whether it feels real enough to spur action on nuclear risk.

☢️ https://go.newamerica.org/house-of-dynamite-nuclear-thinking-5

Cover of the report titled 'Threat and Nuclear Risk: Addressing Old Threats' by Amy J. Nelson, for New America's Future Security program, featuring yellow warning triangles on a dark background.

Public awareness of nuclear danger remains high even as action to reduce it is rare.

Read the latest report by @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social to learn more.

☢️ https://www.newamerica.org/future-security/future-security-scenarios-lab/reports/threat-complacency-and-nuclear-risk/

New piece out today @newamerica.org: How @netflix.com's A House of Dynamite Might Change Our Thinking on Nuclear War.

Debates over the film's realism miss the point: the real question is how it shapes attention, framing, and imagination around #nuclear risk

www.newamerica.org/the-thread/n...

Harnessing disagreement is not a nice-to-have in nuclear policy. It is a resilience requirement.

#NuclearRisk #StrategicStability #Deterrence
@newamerica.org