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Michael Shurkin

@michaelshurkin

Ex-CIA, Ex-RAND, ex-historian. I post on things related to defense, national security, Africa (esp. the Sahel), and all things French military. Sometimes troll antisemites.

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03.10.2023
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Latest posts by Michael Shurkin @michaelshurkin

Really?

10.03.2026 02:09 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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MDR The true spirit of this channel.

A new design!

pax-americana-shop.fourthwall.com/products/mdr

10.03.2026 00:43 πŸ‘ 4 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

"Lyatollah." Good one.

09.03.2026 18:52 πŸ‘ 13 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0
Thoughts on the Iran War
Thoughts on the Iran War YouTube video by Pax Americana

www.youtube.com/watch?v=KIPF...

09.03.2026 17:49 πŸ‘ 10 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

There are zero Africans, or at least none that I've seen.

09.03.2026 11:59 πŸ‘ 4 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 0

Sistani is a fascinating figure.

09.03.2026 11:12 πŸ‘ 6 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Iraq's Top Shia Cleric Denounces the War Against Iran, But Implies Moderation Sistani has issued a layered statement addressing the war against Iran.

'By addressing an ongoing regional war, Najaf signals that the conflict carries consequences that extend well beyond the immediate battlefield.' writes Alabbas F. Alsudani in the latest #RUSICommentary.

09.03.2026 10:30 πŸ‘ 8 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 1
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A Dumpster Fire of World-Historical Proportions The United States and Israel’s war against Iran is now a touch over a week old.

I wanted to write something more upbeat, for in fact I have no qualms about thrashing Iran. But I could not.

open.substack.com/pub/shurkin/...

09.03.2026 10:59 πŸ‘ 16 πŸ” 3 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 1
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German frigate arrives in Limassol The German frigate FGS Nordrhein-Westfalen arrived at the port of Limassol on Sunday, joining a growing fleet of international military vessels which have deployed to Cyprus amid an ongoing conflict i...

Local media reporting that Germany has moved F125 frigate Nordrhein-Westfalen to Cyprus, in order to participate in defence of the island against notional threats by Iran. A few thoughts on the nuances at play here. Usual info caveats apply.

cyprus-mail.com/2026/03/08/g...

09.03.2026 01:35 πŸ‘ 25 πŸ” 10 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 1

Yup

09.03.2026 00:28 πŸ‘ 9 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

The gas thing will hit hardest. All those fool Americans with their gigantic cars...and we drive a lot. It's a huge country.

09.03.2026 00:03 πŸ‘ 7 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 4 πŸ“Œ 0

I'm anticipating some really poor crops this year because of fertilizer prices.

09.03.2026 00:02 πŸ‘ 20 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0

True. But wait until Americans have to pay $6 for a gallon of gasoline. Then you will see real anger.

08.03.2026 23:57 πŸ‘ 9 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

The fertilizer thing has me worried. For my day job I watch things like how African governments organize fertilizer imports. The surging prices will be like a kick in the groin.

08.03.2026 23:56 πŸ‘ 30 πŸ” 3 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Jews.

08.03.2026 23:50 πŸ‘ 12 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 0

Just you wait.

08.03.2026 23:48 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

When it ends ...and in the meantime...

08.03.2026 23:47 πŸ‘ 12 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

If we are lucky. But I doubt it.

08.03.2026 23:47 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Here's my prediction: it's the Iran war that will topple Trump. Not ICE. Not corruption. Not Epstein. This war. In part because it's causing a schism among Republicans between the Tuckerites and the rest. Also because gasoline prices are going to go astronomical. Guess who will be blamed.

08.03.2026 23:46 πŸ‘ 131 πŸ” 19 πŸ’¬ 19 πŸ“Œ 6
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Historian here history first time as tragedy the second time as farce.

05.03.2026 14:11 πŸ‘ 6100 πŸ” 2176 πŸ’¬ 118 πŸ“Œ 125
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West African states to create 2,000-strong anti-jihadist force The new ECOWAS mission will be deployed in response to terrorism threats, the expansion of organised crime and persistent maritime insecurity.

Pretty big news out of ECOWAS aimed at combatting that looks aimed to combat and mitigate the spread of JNIM, ISGS, ISWAP, and others. Intent appears to be to cooperate with the Alliance of Sahel States (Mali, Niger, & Burkina Faso) as well.

05.03.2026 17:01 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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01.03.2026 01:52 πŸ‘ 11 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

I meant to write Khamenei. But Khomeini as well.

01.03.2026 01:45 πŸ‘ 9 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Things simultaneously true:
1. Iran's regime is evil. F*ck Khomeini.
2. Blowing stuff up seldom has strategic value.
3. POTUS's ability to initiate a war like this despite the Constitution should worry all Americans whether we approve of this instance or not

01.03.2026 01:33 πŸ‘ 31 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0

If only I had reason to believe the people in charge knew what they were doing.

01.03.2026 00:56 πŸ‘ 25 πŸ” 3 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Frankly, I expected better from a FIFA Peace prize winner

28.02.2026 16:19 πŸ‘ 2679 πŸ” 482 πŸ’¬ 40 πŸ“Œ 14

I remember when trying to forgive student loans was massive overreach of Presidential power.

28.02.2026 18:00 πŸ‘ 3620 πŸ” 976 πŸ’¬ 43 πŸ“Œ 15
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Kostiantynivka

This is not a movie scene.
This is a Ukrainian city that Russia is systematically erasing.
They want it to disappear β€” physically and from the world’s memory.
Please, don’t stay SILENT

πŸŽ₯ libkos, 28th Mechanized Brigade

27.02.2026 08:39 πŸ‘ 110 πŸ” 76 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 10
A conversation with Sasho Todorov about what casualty data tell us about battle.
A conversation with Sasho Todorov about what casualty data tell us about battle. YouTube video by Pax Americana

I talked to @sashotodorov.bsky.social about casualty data and what they tell us about Ukraine and the death of decisive battle. Check it out.

youtu.be/ZdKasf8UH_U

26.02.2026 23:34 πŸ‘ 12 πŸ” 4 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
A conversation with Sasho Todorov about what casualty data tell us about battle.
A conversation with Sasho Todorov about what casualty data tell us about battle. YouTube video by Pax Americana

I talked to @sashotodorov.bsky.social about casualty data and what they tell us about Ukraine and the death of decisive battle. Check it out.

youtu.be/ZdKasf8UH_U

26.02.2026 23:34 πŸ‘ 12 πŸ” 4 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0