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Renad Mansour

@renadmansour

Senior Research Fellow at Chatham House. Research, analysis, and the occasional joke on the Middle East.

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18.11.2024
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Latest posts by Renad Mansour @renadmansour

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Iraq elections 2025: How votes are won and what the results could mean for Iraq’s fragile stability Iraq goes to the polls on 11 November. But with few Iraqis expected to actually vote, the real contest lies in how power will be divided among the elites who dominate the system.

Iraq goes to the polls on 11 November. But with few Iraqis expected to actually vote, the real contest lies in how power will be divided among the elites who dominate the system.

Read the new #IraqInitiative explainer by @renadmansour.bsky.social ⤵️
www.chathamhouse.org/2025/10/iraq...

23.10.2025 13:27 👍 2 🔁 2 💬 0 📌 0

🌟NEW 'Take Five' from Director/CEO Juliet Dryden & Comms Intern Eve Harrison-Taylor 🌟

Our top 5 readings/podcasts on #internationalstudies from the last two weeks!
inc: @cfr.org @jamessweeney100.bsky.social @opendemocracy.net @renadmansour.bsky.social

& more: www.bisa.ac.uk/articles/tak...

27.06.2025 10:59 👍 0 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0

Iraq has mostly stayed out of the regional conflict. But that stability now looks fragile. My take on what’s at stake 👇

26.06.2025 08:36 👍 2 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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The History of Bad Ideas: The Decisive Battle 196

To the war cheerleaders who believe military escalation will bring clear, positive endgames for Iran/the region; if Iraq and Afghanistan didn’t teach you, history has a few more lessons.

A timely episode on The History of Bad Ideas: 'The Decisive Battle'
www.ppfideas.com/episodes/the...

22.06.2025 18:23 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

Why does peacebuilding keep failing? Because it wasn’t built for today’s conflict economies.

We trace how gold from Sudan, fuel from Iran and migrant smuggling via Libya connect profit-driven conflicts across the Middle East & Africa.

Our
@ChathamHouse
report:🧵👇

12.06.2025 07:02 👍 2 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0

Join us tomorrow at Chatham House for the launch of our latest paper on conflict economies in the Middle East and Africa, exploring why today’s conflicts are more protracted and harder to resolve.

Register to attend in person here 👇

11.06.2025 07:52 👍 2 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Navigating protracted conflicts in a multi-aligned world Following the conclusion of the Chatham House XCEPT research initiative, this event unpacks key findings and explores how policymakers can better respond to the complex realities of a multi-aligned gl...

📢 NEW EVENT: Navigating protracted conflicts in a multi-aligned world

This half-day event follows the conclusion of the @chathamhouse.org XCEPT research initiative.

📅 12/6
⏰ 9.00 - 14.00 BST
📍 Chatham House

For further information and to register ⤵️
www.chathamhouse.org/events/all/r...

14.05.2025 09:48 👍 1 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 1
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📣 Announcing the 2025 #IraqInitiative Conference!

Join us on 1 October @chathamhouse.org & online for our 7th annual conference to explore how Iraq can secure more lasting stability and economic resilience in an era of regional and global uncertainty.

03.04.2025 14:19 👍 3 🔁 2 💬 1 📌 0
How Iraq’s $17B Megaproject Plans to Bypass the Suez Canal | WSJ Breaking Ground
How Iraq’s $17B Megaproject Plans to Bypass the Suez Canal | WSJ Breaking Ground YouTube video by The Wall Street Journal

📺 'Because of the relative stability in the last few years in Iraq, this project presents an opportunity to gain some autonomy and to gain some power.'

@renadmansour.bsky.social speaks to @wsj.com about Iraq's plans to construct an alternative to the Suez Canal ⤵️
www.youtube.com/watch?v=OypN...

14.03.2025 14:35 👍 2 🔁 3 💬 0 📌 1
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The future of Iraq-US relations under Trump | A panel of experts examines the impact of the new US administration for bilateral ties and broader regional dynamics. | By Chatham House Middle East and N... A panel of experts examines the impact of the new US administration for bilateral ties and broader regional dynamics.

Webinar: The future of Iraq–US relations under Trump

Join @renadmansour.bsky.social, Krikor Der-Hagopian, Mike Knights and Sanam Vakil for a virtual #IraqInitiative discussion.

Watch LIVE ⤵️
www.facebook.com/CHMENAProg/v...

18.03.2025 14:04 👍 0 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0
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The shape-shifting ‘axis of resistance’ How Iran and its networks adapt to external pressures

📢NEW PAPER by @chathamhouse.bsky.social XCEPT Research

'The shape-shifting ‘axis of resistance’: How Iran and its networks adapt to external pressures' by @renadmansour.bsky.social, @haydersh.bsky.social & @haidhaid22.bsky.social.🧵
www.chathamhouse.org/2025/03/shap...

07.03.2025 12:49 👍 2 🔁 2 💬 1 📌 0
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The shape-shifting ‘axis of resistance’ How Iran and its networks adapt to external pressures

Read the full research paper by @renadmansour.bsky.social, @haydersh.bsky.social and @haidhaid22.bsky.social for an in-depth examination of the axis of resistance resiliance and the policy approaches needed to counter it. 9/9
www.chathamhouse.org/2025/03/shap...

07.03.2025 12:49 👍 2 🔁 2 💬 0 📌 0
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The fight for political supremacy in Iraq’s judiciary - Kalam A deeply divisive conflict between Iraq’s two foremost judicial figures has recently come to light, raising alarm that the country’s political stability may

A deeply divisive conflict between Iraq’s two foremost judicial figures has recently come to light, raising alarm that the country’s political stability may unravel, writes @sajadjiyad.bsky.social in a new #IraqInitiative article.

Read the analysis on Kalam ⤵️
kalam.chathamhouse.org/articles/the...

17.02.2025 11:52 👍 1 🔁 2 💬 0 📌 0
Borders of Conflict: Navigating Policy in a Transnational Ecosystem | Global Policy Journal Armed conflicts are rarely confined within country borders. Flows of power, capital, services, and people connect conflicts to distant geographies. Even local or intra-state wars are symbiotically lin...

Free to read Global Policy - @chathamhouse.bsky.social e-book 'Borders of Conflict: Navigating Policy in a Transnational Ecosystem', edited by @renadmansour.bsky.social

www.globalpolicyjournal.com/projects/gp-...

10.02.2025 15:58 👍 0 🔁 2 💬 0 📌 0
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Independent Thinking: What will be the flashpoints of 2025? Gideon Rachman, Leslie Vinjamuri and Renad Mansour join the podcast to look at the year ahead and discuss whether we are likely to face a more disordered world.

Podcast🎙️| What will be the flashpoints of 2025?

@gideonrachman.bsky.social, @renadmansour.bsky.social and @leslievinjamuri.bsky.social join the podcast this week to discuss the crises and flashpoints facing the world this year.

10.01.2025 12:00 👍 5 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 1
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Regime change in Syria has Iraqi factions backtracking on push for US withdrawal The fall of Bashar Assad in Syria has led Iran-allied factions in neighboring Iraq to reconsider their push for U.S. forces to exit the country, multiple Iraqi and American officials told The Associat...

'If the argument for removing the U.S. troops from Iraq was that the fight against ISIS was over and the region is stable, that calculation has changed following regime change in Syria,' says @renadmansour.bsky.social via ABC News.

abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory...

06.02.2025 17:54 👍 0 🔁 2 💬 0 📌 1
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Iraq’s Newfound Stability Is About to Be Tested Iraq has appeared relatively stable under PM Sudani and the ruling SCF in recent years. But that stability remains precarious.

Iraq has appeared relatively stable under PM Sudani and the ruling SCF in recent years.

But that stability remains precarious, making the coming year pivotal for the country, @renadmansour.bsky.social writes.

04.12.2024 20:58 👍 2 🔁 2 💬 0 📌 0

Should have tagged @renadmansour.bsky.social (didn't realise he was on here!)

28.11.2024 09:42 👍 3 🔁 3 💬 0 📌 0
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How supply chains fuel transnational conflict in the Middle East Transnational conflict in the Middle East is fuelled by both ‘legal’ and ‘illegal’ trade. Mapping these cross-border dynamics can help understand and address violent conflict.

Fascinating, innovative mapping of the relationship between supply chains & conflict in the Levant by Hayder El-Shakeri and Renad Mansour:

www.chathamhouse.org/2024/11/how-...

27.11.2024 08:58 👍 7 🔁 4 💬 0 📌 0
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How supply chains fuel transnational conflict in the Middle East Transnational conflict in the Middle East is fuelled by both ‘legal’ and ‘illegal’ trade. Mapping these cross-border dynamics can help understand and address violent conflict.

Transnational conflict in the Middle East is fuelled by both ‘legal’ and ‘illegal’ trade. Mapping these cross-border dynamics can help understand and address violent conflict.

22.11.2024 09:00 👍 5 🔁 3 💬 0 📌 1
The Axis of Resilience Israel is underestimating Iran and its allies.

Renad Mansour: great insight on resilience of the Axis of Resistance www.foreignaffairs.com/israel/axis-...

15.11.2024 05:54 👍 2 🔁 3 💬 1 📌 1
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The Axis of Resilience Israel is underestimating Iran and its allies.

Highly recommend this by @renadmansour.bsky.social on how the Axis of Resistance has changed in recent years:

1. More horizontal & less top-down Iran-driven since Soleimani's assassination.

2. A shift in the balance of power to the Houthis & Kataib Hezbollah post-Oct. 7.

Very thought-provoking.

18.11.2024 14:18 👍 5 🔁 3 💬 0 📌 0
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The Axis of Resilience Israel is underestimating Iran and its allies.

Excellent read @renadmansour.bsky.social
www.foreignaffairs.com/israel/axis-...

18.11.2024 15:17 👍 3 🔁 2 💬 0 📌 0

In response to Hamas’s Oct 7 attack, Israel launched a regional war to reshape the Middle East. But the groups it now takes on, with their deep state connections and transnational ties, have shown previously that they can adapt to shocks. My piece on why that matters now.

18.11.2024 09:35 👍 5 🔁 2 💬 1 📌 0