Mike Hoerger, PhD, MSCR, MBA

Elizabeth's Warren's pre-political academic career was all about this exact issue

Flyer, summarized in post. Picture background shows the C19 memorial in Louisiana

Join us for this virtual town hall event. We will discuss the results of a survey of >2,000 respondents in the C19 Cautious community.

This includes our dashboard survey from early 2025 and follow up survey in 2026.

Share widely.🔁

Register (direct link): events.zoom.us/ev/AmuF5JDQN...

Event flyer, shows the pandemic memorial in the New Orleans area

To mark the 6th anniversary of the pandemic, we will host a virtual town hall on Wed (2-3pm Central).

I will review findings from our dashboard survey many of you completed. Registration is required via a link at the top of the dashboard (pmc19.com/data).
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Huge wave in the summer, especially in California. Long and high. I only covered it on here until late August when Bsky blocked the state of Mississippi. I expect another late summer wave there, but hope it is not as large.

Event flyer, shows the pandemic memorial in the New Orleans area

To mark the 6th anniversary of the pandemic, we will host a virtual town hall on Wed (2-3pm Central).

I will review findings from our dashboard survey many of you completed. Registration is required via a link at the top of the dashboard (pmc19.com/data).
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Number of People Chances Anyone is Infectious 1 1.2% 2 2.3% 3 3.4% 4 4.5% 5 5.6% 10 11.0% 15 16.0% 20 20.7% 25 25.2% 30 29.4% 50 44.0% 75 58.1% 100 68.7% 200 90.2% 300 96.9%

Barometer figure, described in post

Year-over-year graph

Forecast of slowly declining transmission

Notice that levels are relatively low compared to the past 100 days, as we ease out of the wave, but average relative to the levels of transmission since the pandemic onset.

We expect to exit the "wave threshold" (500,000 new daily) soon.
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Alabama High 1 in 33 (3.0%) Alaska Moderate 1 in 64 (1.6%) Arizona Low 1 in 74 (1.4%) Arkansas Moderate* 1 in 65 (1.5%) California Very Low 1 in 200 (0.5%) Colorado Low 1 in 99 (1.0%) Connecticut Moderate 1 in 62 (1.6%) Delaware High 1 in 37 (2.7%) District of Columbia Very Low 1 in 749 (0.1%) Florida Very Low 1 in 159 (0.6%) Georgia Moderate 1 in 45 (2.2%) Guam Very Low 1 in 121 (0.8%) Hawaii Very Low 1 in 222 (0.4%) Idaho Very Low 1 in 149 (0.7%) Illinois High 1 in 35 (2.9%) Indiana Moderate 1 in 46 (2.2%) Iowa Moderate 1 in 56 (1.8%) Kansas Moderate 1 in 46 (2.2%) Kentucky Moderate 1 in 43 (2.3%) Louisiana Moderate 1 in 51 (2.0%) Maine High 1 in 35 (2.8%) Maryland Moderate 1 in 60 (1.7%) Massachusetts Low 1 in 78 (1.3%) Michigan Low 1 in 68 (1.5%) Minnesota High 1 in 38 (2.6%) Mississippi High* 1 in 36 (2.8%)

Missouri Moderate 1 in 43 (2.3%) Montana Low 1 in 82 (1.2%) Nebraska High 1 in 42 (2.4%) Nevada Very Low 1 in 128 (0.8%) New Hampshire Moderate 1 in 59 (1.7%) New Jersey Moderate 1 in 58 (1.7%) New Mexico Low 1 in 108 (0.9%) New York Low 1 in 96 (1.0%) North Carolina Low 1 in 79 (1.3%) North Dakota Moderate* 1 in 52 (1.9%) Ohio Moderate 1 in 60 (1.7%) Oklahoma Low* 1 in 85 (1.2%) Oregon Very Low 1 in 227 (0.4%) Pennsylvania Low 1 in 75 (1.3%) Rhode Island Low 1 in 85 (1.2%) South Carolina Low 1 in 88 (1.1%) South Dakota Moderate 1 in 52 (1.9%) Tennessee Very Low 1 in 112 (0.9%) Texas Low 1 in 109 (0.9%) Utah Very Low 1 in 134 (0.7%) Vermont Moderate 1 in 62 (1.6%) Virginia Low 1 in 80 (1.2%) Washington Very Low 1 in 222 (0.4%) West Virginia Very Low 1 in 139 (0.7%) Wisconsin Moderate 1 in 50 (2.0%) Wyoming Low 1 in 88 (1.1%)

Graph of 12 waves

Infections Proportion Actively Infectious 1 in 87 (1.2%) New Daily Infections 565,000 Infections the Past Week 4,100,000 Infections in 2026 54,000,000 Cumulative Infections per Person 5.10 Long COVlD Long COVlD Cases Resulting from New Daily Infections 28,000 to 113,000 Long COVlD Cases Resulting from New Weekly Infections 205,000 to 820,000 Excess Deaths Excess Deaths Resulting from New Daily Infections 160 to 270 Excess Deaths Resulting from New Weekly Infections 1,200 to 1,900

Prevalence estimates for the 7 states in the CDC High range...

🦠NE: 1 in 42 residents actively infectious
🦠MN: 1 in 38
🦠DE: 1 in 37
🦠MS: 1 in 36
🦠ME: 1 in 35
🦠IL: 1 in 35
🦠AL: 1 in 33

Americans have an est. average of 5.10 cumulative SARS-CoV-2 infections.
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Heat map of CDC levels and PMC estimate of prevalence, 1 in 87 estimated actively infectious.

PMC COVlD Update, Week of Mar 9, 2026 (U.S.)

This week we will likely see the 100th consecutive day above 500,000 estimated new daily infections.

However, the 12th wave is winding down. CDC levels are Moderate in 18 states, High in 7, and Very High in 0.

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There have been two waves every year.
bsky.app/profile/mich...

It is implied. Trojan horse

Thank you

Check out our ACS-sponsored pilot program to help patients and families stay safer from COVID 👇

It's time for this week's #ACSFriday5, where we highlight five new publications from our ACS researchers!

Before you log off for the weekend, be sure to check out these great papers:

#CanSky #OncoSky 🧪

Two screenshots against a background of evergreen needles dripping with rain. The first is a map of the US showing COVID transmission, with states colored pale yellow to maroon depending on severity. Oregon is pale yellow, which means “Very Low”. Text warns that this data is based off February 14th. The second screenshot is text that reads, “63% of Oregon community wastewater treatment centers were positive for SARS-CoV-2 on the most recent sample.”

It’s Wastewater Wednesday! How are COVID levels? We’re using two sources to help us keep track of the country and our state of Oregon.

Thank you to @michael-hoerger.bsky.social for the map and graph, and OHA for continuing to track data coming from our wastewater treatment centers!

Text says "Have you heard of Immune Amnesia?If you haven’t (and even if you have), we’ll tell you about it.” In the corner is an image of a man scratching his head.

Important to understand first: When your body is exposed to certain germs that can cause diseases, your immune system builds a “memory” of them, so if you’re exposed to these germs again, your immune system recognizes them and knows how to fight them off. Your immune system also builds this memory when you get vaccinated, so you don’t have to get sick in order to protect yourself from future infections. Graphics show a shield with arms holding a sword and fighting off germs. Another graphic shows a vaccine vial

text says "Important to understand first: Immune amnesia means something has caused your body to lose, or “forget,” its memory of germs you’ve been exposed to before, meaning you’re more likely to get sick and to experience severe illness if you’re exposed to it again. Measles can cause your immune system to forget up to 73% of its memory. In other words, after having measles, you will be immune to measles, but may be at increased risk of other serious illnesses. Did you know? Measles is not the only virus that can harm your immune system. COVID-19 has also been found to cause long-term harm to your body’s ability to fight off illnesses, making you more likely to get sick and experience severe illness.” Graphics show a stick figure shivering with fear because the shield in front of him is broken, and now germs are reaching him. Two pie charts: one says “100% memory before” and the other shows “73% memory lost after"

Unfortunately, there’s no way to predict whose immune system will be most harmed by being sick. It can happen to anyone! The best way to avoid immune amnesia is to get vaccinated & take other steps to avoid getting sick So please remember, it is not a good idea to expose yourself to these viruses on purpose in order to build immunity! That is what vaccines are for. Getting sick makes you much more likely to hurt your immune system! Graphics of a vaccine, a mask, and an air purifier and open window symbolizing clean air

Did you know? Certain illnesses, like measles & COVID-19, can harm your immune system & make you more vulnerable to sickness later. Protect your immune system by getting vaccinated & avoiding getting sick! Learn more about measles & immune amnesia: www.healthychildren.org/English/tips...

No. That is not how this works. If you want to undermine valid scientific data with conspiracy theories, you will be blocked.

My parents were the only people wearing masks in the cancer ward during my dad’s treatment last year. Lucked out and didn’t get sick during the procedures for which he had to be sedated.

My mom mentioned another patient who looked very frail, caught a cough, then suddenly wasn’t there anymore.

🚨LCDefense III
4:35pm Delphine Crespo @longcovidaragon.bsky.social
5:10pm Dr. Ciara Steele @cleanairie.bsky.social
5:45pm Elisa Perego PhD @elisaperego78.bsky.social
6:20pm Pamela Morrison @lcaireland.bsky.social
6:55pm Angela L. @lcawarenessint.bsky.social
7:35pm Devin Russell Long COVID Foundation

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To enjoy this post with the musical work of Dr. Sean Mullen (@drseanmullen.bsky.social), you will have to head to Instagram.

www.instagram.com/p/DVaa3ZaDthH/

Illinois COVID levels have been "High" or "Very High" every week since Dec 20, 2025, per the CDC.

The PMC prevalence estimate is that 1 in 28 residents are actively infectious statewide, meaning a 59% chance of an exposure in a room of 25 people who aren't testing/isolating.

The CDC wastewater sites are monitoring <5% of the population in those states. It's not the exact system I would use, but it's "fine." I consider WV low quality too because they only have one site. The data here in Louisiana (2 sites) tend to also be volatile.

Mike's latest COVID-19 Heat Map is up. To fellow New Yorkers: 1 in 39 people are estimated to be actively infectious. Mask up, and increase ventilation to the extent feasible when indoors.

#medsky

You very obviously did not read my book!!!! lol. Regardless, the moral panic about kids & internet access is baseless and every single top academic who studies this topic has said so. The campaign u support is led by Heritage Foundation & Morality in Media, their goal is censorship and surveillance

PMC

Announcement #5:

SAVE THE DATE (Wed, Mar 11, 3PM ET)
We plan to host a town hall style meeting to discuss findings from the 2026 PMC Dashboard Survey.

We are waiting on confirmation from IT. Details forthcoming.
pmc19.com/data
8/8 🧵

Michael Hoerger, PhD, MSCR, MBA on Instagram: "March 2, 2026 - PMC COVlD Update (U.S.) We estimate ≈650,000 new daily infections nationwide. This week marks the 3rd consecutive month of this 12th wav... 24 likes, 0 comments - michael_hoerger on March 1, 2026: "March 2, 2026 - PMC COVlD Update (U.S.) We estimate ≈650,000 new daily infections nationwide. This week marks the 3rd consecutive month of th...

Announcement #4:

Phytocene, a musician who performs masked, released a single that is the backdrop of our PMC Instagram post this week.
😷🎶🎶🎶
www.instagram.com/p/DVX0Ojkjv1R/

7/8 🧵

Vote for Bailey to be featured on the cover of Muscle & Fitness HERS! True fitness is inclusive. By training in a respirator mask, I hope to demonstrate that access, health & dignity belong to everyone.

Announcement #3:

Dr. Bailey (@drbaileydevine-phd.bsky.social) is approaching the end of a multi-stage battle to pose masked on the cover of a fitness magazine.

Vote daily.
mshealthandfit.com/2026/bailey
6/8 🧵

Welcome! You are invited to join a meeting: Long COVID Defense Series III. After registering, you will receive a confirmation email about joining the meeting. Welcome! You are invited to join a meeting: Long COVID Defense Series III. After registering, you will receive a confirmation email about joining the meeting.

Announcement #2:

MaskTogetherAmerica (@togetherwemask.bsky.social) is hosting a talk on Long COVID on Wednesday, March 4, from 4:30-9:30 PM Eastern.

Register in advance. I will give the opening remarks.
us06web.zoom.us/meeting/regi...
5/8 🧵

Announcement #1:

We recently published an article in JAMA-NO on the importance of multilayered COVlD mitigation in cancer.
4/8 🧵
bsky.app/profile/mich...

12 waves

Barometer, described in post

Year over year graph, described in post

Forecast, described in post

In the year-over-year graph, notice that transmission has subsided from mid-Feb to early Mar each of the past 5 years. This tracks with our forecast.

Levels are getting lower relative to recent months but "average" relative to the past year & pandemic.
3/8 🧵