Where I can be wrong: the regime might be more concerned with revenge than self-preservation. Wars are dynamic and events can snowball out of control even if both sides intents are well bounded.
To sum up: there is a two week window for Iran to use the Straight of Hormuz as a stranglehold to try and survive this war and get some guarantees on its own security going forward. If and when this window shuts, Iran can lose all that leverage.
It is not in Iran’s own interests to keep the Straight closed for too long. After all, their critical infrastructure resides largely on the wrong side of the closure and there could be other forms of blowback.
A long-term move around the straight would undermine Iran’s geopolitical leverage in 5-10 years timeframe, which is an eternity today, but something a regime concerned w/ perpetual preservation might consider too big a risk.
Long-term: Persian Gulf neighbors can invest in projects like the Salman Canal and more pipelines to reroute around the Straight of Hormuz. Iran has threatened such a move would be an “act of war”; however, so too is strangling neighbors like this and bombing them.
Short-term 2: The US could send troops to occupy a buffer around the straight or take out the regime entirely. No one wants this on either side. The regime in Iran’s foremost interest is likely self-preservation.
Short-term 1: US is deploying, with the help of Ukraine, robust anti-drone defenses which could severely undermine Iran’s asymmetric capabilities. This would open the door to the US Navy escorting oil through. That would drop Iran’s leverage to end attacks to near 0.
This is a high wire act and a prisoner’s dilemma. It gives Iran a window to negotiate, but that leverage can backfire in two ways short-term and several ways longer-term.
With atrophying capabilities, Iran has to increasingly rely on asymmetric warfare. The more desperate the regime gets, the more risk they are willing to take.
Why two weeks? Iran has blown through much of its arsenal in the earlygoing and its capabilities have been severely degraded. understandingwar.org/research/mid...
Strangling the Straight of Hormuz is a nuclear option in the absence of actual nuclear weapons and it has a fairly short half life. I think in this case, it’s about two weeks.
Of note: Iran has only dropped about 10 mines, not a full mining of the straight signaling they do not want a prolonged closure here, but they want the world to know they need to survive for this stranglehold to end).
Some caveats: I’m a business analyst and not a geopol expert, though I studied this stuff in college and geopolitics is part of what inspired my interest in markets and vice versa.
My hypothesis: Iran right now is at their point of maximum leverage. This window lasts about two weeks and in that time the regime there needs and can get a deal that ensures its survival.
This is an Iran thread. I want to push back at the Twitter narrative re: the Hormuz situation–that things are spiraling out of control & Iran is gaining the upper hand by strangling the US economy.
Claude knows Jack
Love how the MS PT on WDAY is $185 now but they're equal weight. Their avg buy rated stock has way less upside.
This is the problem for every AI narrative. Nothing is falsifiable. People can just say stuff so the fear compounds.
I've been vibe coding, it's amazing. I'm doing things I never dreamed I could, but many of these alleged changes aren't going to happen. Some will though!
AMZN, META, GOOG, MSFT combined capex is ~2.2% of GDP. Railroad investment averaged 2.4% for the Gilded Age and peaked between 6-10% depending on estimates.
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
Super intersting on the EPA mandated transition. Over what kind of time period will that play out? When did that start? TY!!!
In person entertainment and experiences for what AI can't remove labor certainly comes to mind. Part of the allure w MIPS for me. Participation in outdoors generally going up, alongside awareness for safety.
Lifesci/biotech IMO will be a massive beneficiary of AI. Eroom's law might finally die.
Ah we've ordered from 4imprint and I get their catalogs and some samples every year. The corporate gifting market is a good one!
Quick pitch?
I don't know it, what's the quick pitch?thank you!
I think a follow up question would be in what business interactions, workflows or decisions can people not be removed by AI? 1. Physical Retail, 2. Health Care, 3. Companies that supply hardware and services bundled with software.
Do they compete with mainly local printing/marketing cos on that front? How fragmented is the market?
Wow very interesting, I had almost forgotten this existed!!!
One I like that I haven’t seen written up anywhere is $CMPR. Coming off a big surge in capex for unified software back-end across acquired brands, and physical capex to produce “elevated” custom products. Not just biz cards.
The next closest is Ghost who has been stuck in mud at 3% share despite KDP acquiring and investing in it. Bloom is the only smaller brand growing swiftly, but $ share is not even 2% yet. It sure does seem to be stabilzing as an industry.
Happy to hear it Alex and great to hear from you! Just like the good ole days of Fintwit!!!
