I'm surprised $META's ~80% drawdown in 2022 didn't do more to dispel the idea that flows benefit the top weights of the index.
11.03.2026 15:36
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I'm surprised $META's ~80% drawdown in 2022 didn't do more to dispel the idea that flows benefit the top weights of the index.
Except SpaceX actually exists and is vertically integrated. $ASTS has built 2% of their constellation.
This market looks ready to puke at the open but can’t quite bring myself to press shorts. Not sure what I’m waiting for.
Feels like 99% chance of a Sunday night or Monday morning Truth Social post that will try to jawbone markets higher. Also feels like that will be the most obvious dead cat bounce in history and an insta-fade.
One my all time favorite movies. Nice deep cut haha.
No idea. My first thought was ethic cleansing or something.
This is a Rorschach test for your personal views about Elon Musk.
AMA. More of a story stock that will eventually be a shitco.
maybe it holds, but only if punters don't read anything beyond the headline.
Yeah it’s a data moat. Not an API-first product which is the longer term risk here.
Nice beats from $FA. +9% premarket but very illiquid. Announced a buyback worth ~6% of the float. Turns out labor market is just flat, not quite reflecting the doomsday scenario making the rounds.
$FA crushed because Citrini said UE will be at 10% and API focused start ups like Checkr will eat their lunch as records become digitized. But records are at the county level, fragmented, require runners, will take a decade plus. Large data moat, duopoly likely at trough. Very cheap but PE overhang.
$DE is trading at a higher sales multiple than half of SaaS with 30% gross margins and 5% projected revenue growth for FY26 😭
Updated my 2026 outlook.
-Prediction for a blow off top
-Inevitable bust
-Underpriced tail risk
I flipped long from net short last week and included a list of my recent buys.
valuations.substack.com/p/orange-swan
$FA is a data flywheel. More customers, more screens, more records, better coverage, which attracts more customers.
integrated into 100+ Human Capital Management platforms with high switching costs, 96-97% retention rates.
Duopoly with substantial pricing power.
Tactical trade. $FA is a baby getting thrown out with the SaaS-water. I’m betting labor market reaccelerating in the second half will provide at least 40% upside.
Full write up here:
open.substack.com/pub/valuatio...
Anyone else noticing the IG algo suddenly feeling closer to Xitter?
Maybe my own engagement shifting but suddenly getting served a bunch of unhinged conspiracy vids. Feels like the “Facebook files” was only yesterday and already full circle.
Closed all my puts yesterday and covered most single name shorts. Hoping to see vol come down so I can put them back in place.
1H sees a big fiscal stimmy from OBBB taxes breaks, but going into 2H unhedged is crazy.
Ok I know I’m officially having too much fun this week because I just bought a $MSTR flier.
The perfect follow up to bidding TWTR at $44B right as the market topped in Jan 22.
Seems like a low bar for $AMZN tonight. Just don’t guide capex above estimates and it’s green. Retail probably humming.
Probably a lot of dip buyers waiting to pounce but if OpenAI really pops then it may cause some forced selling across the entire complex and set up a nice entry.
Tough one. I spent an afternoon on it and decided it’s too hard. Feels like they’re at a really unappealing spot in the value chain and will always lose their best clients as they grow. Runoff of the yellow pages makes the true SaaS growth hard to model. Worried it’s a value trap, but very cheap.
And I get no one cares when the stock swing higher but SBC being 80% of FCF with insiders relentlessly dumping is pretty hard to swallow.
“Jira is a powerful project management and issue-tracking tool designed to help teams plan, assign, track, and report on work. Primarily used for Agile software development, it uses boards to visualize workflows (e.g., Kanban or Scrum) to monitor progress, manage bugs, and speed up project delivery”
This makes me want to bottom fish software but then I spend an hour reading about the specific products and still have no idea what most of them even do.
🎵Hello darkness my old friend🎵
"Dan Ives is an analyst - and a whole lot more."
Based on his fit he's also lead singer in a Smash Mouth cover band, and was formerly the Executive VP of Investor Relations at SNCR where he was charged with securities fraud and settled. www.sec.gov/files/litiga...
"Should You Trust Him?"
NGL. the chance to short Tesla, SpaceX and MechaHitler all under one wrapper sounds like a dream come true.
