@paulpharoah
Jack of some trades, master of none: public health, epi and genetics mainly. Arsenal supporter, hiker. Live in LA. If home is also where the heart is England, South Africa, Papua New Guinea. Photos are my own. Views expressed are my own.
The Enemies of Reliable and Useful Clinical Prediction Models: A Review of Statistical and Scientific Challenges - www.annualreviews.org/content/jour...
Excellent overview. One recommendation is collaborate with an expert. However, in my experience, finding an expert with the time is a challenge.
Plastic surgery is not cheap.
#THFC. Nothing like the new manager bounce for getting a team going again.
Just doing the Research Security Training that is a requirement to be eligible for US federal science funding. Apparently scientists should "conduct their work without bias or preconceived notions". RFK Jr, the head of HHS and Bhattacharya, Director of the NIH do not do this. Why should I?
Things that kill people that are not illegal:
Gambling
Alcohol
Driving a car (kills people other than driver)
Smoking
Mountain climbing
Where will it all end?
What is the longest response time anyone else has managed as either requestor or requestee (not an actual word I think).
#Openscience
Two years ago I got an email from someone asking for some "available on request" code. I failed to respond 🥵. I came across the email today, realised I hadn't replied, and wrote to ask if code still required The requestor was somewhat surprised to hear from me. Code now sent 😇.
I admit, giving him the benefit of the doubt makes little sense.
Portrait of Lise Meitner taken in 1928. She is smoking a cigarette and looking impatient to get back to her experiments.
Last week, I mentioned this in passing in a workshop:
In 1938 Enrico Fermi won a Nobel Prize for discovering two new elements of the periodic table.
Lise Meitner shortly showed that Fermi was mistaken and instead had produced known lighter elements by fission.
She did not win a Nobel prize.
www.archchicago.org/statement/-/...
Powerful words.
"I know the American people are better than this". I hope he's right.
It could be worse; you might have a dog with gastroenteritis.
There's something deeply obscene and broken about the fact that Donald Trump and Pete Hegseth are bombing elementary schools in an illegal war of aggression, and there's still a sense among the opposition that it has to be explained in terms of gas prices in order to get American voters to care.
Too busy trying and failing to learn English.
African pygmy goose swimming among water lillies with a jacana standing on the floating vegetation in late evening sunlight.
#BirOfTheDay #StandingInWater #nature #birdsoftheworld
This is aa African pygmy goose shouting at a jacana (not so mich standing in as standing on water.
That dinner menu in full as President Trump entertains Mr Farage at Mar-a-Lago:
Porn Cocktail.
Jizz Pancakes with salted Clacton Cream.
Small sausages & wrinkled chestnuts in a dry rub.
Burnt Chicken Kyiv.
Spotted Dick with a 30p Lee Syrup.
Coffee, Liqueurs & Nappies.
🤮
as.numerc("007")
I read @pgourevitch.bsky.social book cited below when it was first published and the genocide was fresh in our minds. If you've not read it, do.
Hegseth: "I only speak murderous bullshit'
It's all very well demanding that he release the data, but you forget that only The Prasad has the expertise to interpret those data and he does not want to risk others getting it wrong. It would be a public health disaster.
Other newspaper options are available.
Also why I suggested an infectious cause with a wave of some DNA damaging bug infections in young people.
That is exactly my point!
Reverend Jesse Jackson called on each of us to be heralds of change, to be messengers of hope; to step forward and say “Send me” wherever we have a chance to make an impact.
How fortunate we were that Jesse Jackson answered that call. What a great debt we owe to him.
The killing of Iranian children during an illegal war is an impeachable offense (not to mention a grave crime) and Congress should really act like it.
15 Republicans in the Senate could end this nightmare before it somehow gets even worse.
The Onion at it's very best.
I love breakfast when in such a country.
Here is the "effective payline" for each institute, estimated (by Claude) as the percentile where one can expect 80% probability of funding from a logistic regression fit. The effective payline has gone from a historic ~12% to 6% in 2025.
This misses the point that even when these diseases are prevalent and the serious outcomes are a public health problem, most people's experience of them is as mild diseases. Measles was not a 'harrowing' disease for me or most of my generation. Public health messaging needs to recognise this.
Not sure about separate bags for M&Ms and peanuts.
