🚨NEW POST
In April 2025, the increases in employer NICs announced in the Autumn Budget came into effect.
We use Decision Maker Panel (DMP) survey data to study how UK firms plan to adjust and the effects on expectations up to March 2025. 🧵
ESCoE: Impact summary Spring 2025
ESCoE is pleased to publish a new impact summary, highlighting impact across our research projects and the broader benefits we have brought to economic measurement since 2017.
Find out more: tinyurl.com/yh2s985v
Graphs of firms' inflation perceptions and expectations showing that they respond to changes in CPI inflation, not CPI surprises. Since 2021, developed countries have experienced a significant inflation episode. This column uses Decision Maker Panel data from UK CEOs and CFOs to study firms’ inflation perceptions and expectations around monthly official inflation releases. Firms’ expectations are most responsive when inflation coverage in the media is elevated, suggesting salience is a key issue, as the media focuses attention on data releases. Furthermore, firms respond to changes in headline inflation rates and not to surprises relative to professional forecasts. The results highlight a distinction between financial markets (‘Wall Street’) and firms (‘Main Street’), which should inform modelling of economic behaviour.
UK firms' inflation expectations are most responsive when inflation coverage in the media is elevated. This shows a distinction between expectations of financial markets vs. firms - important for economic modelling.
@iyotzov.bsky.social @paulmizen.bsky.social et al.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
Graphic says: "We recently sponsored research that was published by the Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence late last year. It found that businesses with good management practices that tend to be more productive and more profitable, as you would expect, maintained higher rates of home working and hybrid working between 2020 and 2023." Grant Fitzner, Office for National Statistics
Fantastic to see @grantfitzner.bsky.social (ONS) reference ESCoE work on management practices in evidence given to @hlhomeworking.parliament.uk in March.
Read the paper: tinyurl.com/4c3zhut4
Read the meeting minutes: tinyurl.com/5yjpjx24
@jschneebacher.bsky.social @paulmizen.bsky.social
Thanks to all the participants, we will post the talks soon.
Once again, a great programme at the Empirical Management Conference.
Tomorrow, @paulmizen.bsky.social will present our paper on the many innovations well-managed firms made to overcome the challenges of the Covid-19 pandemic, and how this has shaped their post-pandemic working practices.
Please add me to the list. Thanks!
