Constructing a new dataset of FOMC meeting transcripts from 1966 to 1990 to analyze the sources of heterogeneity in individual monetary policy preferences and how this heterogeneity shapes policy, from Howes, Dordal i Carreras, Coibion, and @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social www.nber.org/papers/w34632
Cc @boeresearch.bsky.social
Excellent panel session on the Future of the Fed at the ASSA annual meetings: www.aeaweb.org/webcasts/202...
And we continue with 300 years’ worth of British fiscal policy!
#ASSA2026
If it’s 8:00 am on Sunday, it must be time for macroeconomic policies, starting with Frank Smets (now BIS, formerly @ecb.europa.eu )
#ASSA2026
Pretty decent turnout
Providing a detailed account of the Great Inflation in the United Kingdom from 1961 to 1997, from Michael D. Bordo, Oliver Bush, and Ryland Thomas www.nber.org/papers/w34363
From Breakingviews - Breakingviews - Inflation targets are no match for fiscal neglect reut.rs/4nYS6pw
cc @officialedballs.bsky.social @nickmacpherson.bsky.social @jonmdavis.bsky.social . The research is ongoing so feedback is welcome!
...the post and the research in it tell the story of how 1970s inflation in Britain was a fiscal phenomenon. The Treasury View was abandoned and fiscal imbalances were resolved through unexpected inflation ...
@strandgroup.bsky.social : you and your students may be interested in this post by Canadian economic historian Mike Bordo bsky.app/profile/voxe... ...
Strictly speaking the anniversary of the inflation print was 11 days ago. Oddly, the focus in the press at the time was not on the annual rate hitting 26.9% but the monthly rate easing....
A graph of the UK consumer price index from 1919 to 2019. UK CPI inflation in 1975 reached 25%, a period now known as the ‘Great Inflation’. This column uses a range of empirical and narrative evidence to illustrate the importance of fiscal policy in this period. While stabilising and reducing debt has been the primary peacetime fiscal policy objective for most of modern British history, this was almost completely abandoned during the Great Inflation period. The Great Inflation ended, in part, following a series of fiscal reforms, thus highlighting the importance of the fiscal regime for inflation and the effective operation of monetary policy.
UK CPI inflation in 1975 reached 25%, a period known as the 'Great Inflation'. Michael Bordo shows it was fiscal reforms that played a key role in ending the Great Inflation, highlighting the importance of the fiscal regime for inflation & effective monetary policy.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
Fiscal policy was at the heart of many of the UK's problems during the Great Inflation; instead of being used to stabilize the public finances, it was used for political ends, from Michael D. Bordo, Oliver Bush, and Ryland Thomas https://www.nber.org/papers/w34063
This was a major contributor to the catastrophe of 1975, when inflation reached 27% on the measure used at the time
Healey inherited a difficult situation but failed to solve the underlying fiscal issues
the story came to a head after Barber's wildly stimulatory Budget in 1972 and the accompanying total absence of concern about the public finances
we tell the fiscal side of the story which has largely been neglected...but was seen as central at the time
New work challenging the consensus account of the Great Inflation in the UK (it was mainly down to bad monetary policy)...
Maybe if such a student exists he should write a post (??) about his work... I suspect he isn't very social media savvy (he probably needed to watch a video to work out how to reply to a blue sky message), but he might work it out in the end
This makes Schacht's infamous Mefo scheme look almost conservative - who would have thought?
That said, the new scheme might be the best available solution. But financial risks are 'yuge'.
Germany unification emitting strong vibes, too. That one didn't end v well.
Do you have any students who have written about the inflation risks associated with fiscal policy? 😉
